SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.
...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.
Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.
Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.
Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.
...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.
Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.
Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.
Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
Read more
WW 0001 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MLC TO
30 NW RKR TO 35 WSW FYV TO 20 SSE GMJ TO 5 NW JLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
..MOORE..01/08/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-081840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
MOC119-145-081840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCDONALD NEWTON
OKC001-061-135-081840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR HASKELL SEQUOYAH
Read more
WW 1 TORNADO AR MO OK 081425Z - 081800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Far Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday morning from 825 AM until NOON CST.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move rapidly northeast across the Watch area this morning into the
midday hours. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
surges and inflections within the band as the airmass continues to
moisten and become weakly unstable. A couple of tornadoes are
possible with the stronger mesovortices or in association with weak
mesocyclones embedded within the broader convective system.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Grove OK to
35 miles south southeast of Muskogee OK. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean
storm motion vector 23060.
...Smith
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts are possible through midday across eastern
portions of Oklahoma and Kansas into western parts of Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. A more broad and isolated risk for damaging
gusts and possibly a tornado will persist into tonight from the
Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.
...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
..Smith/Jirak.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Locally elevated conditions remain likely across portions of
southwest into west-central Texas mostly from just east-northeast of
the Big Bend extending onto the Edwards Plateau and into the western
Hill Country then extending southward towards Del Rio/vicinity. This
area missed the recent rainfall, and westerly sustained winds of
15-20 mph and minimum RH of 20-30% are likely to develop across
portions of this area.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses,
will traverse the central U.S. today, with a surface cyclone poised
to deepen while translating from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes in tandem with the first mid-level impulse. As this occurs, a
broad region of 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will
overspread western Texas into Oklahoma behind a cold front through
the day. However, RH will dip only into the 25-40 percent range, and
will be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, putting fuel
receptiveness to wildfire spread into question. While localized
wildfire spread potential is evident, such conditions do not appear
widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081349Z - 081515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind and a brief tornado
are all possible this morning.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms has become better defined this morning
along the I-35 corridor. Within this line, occasional areas of
circulation have been noted and some gusty winds (60 mph at the
Yukon, OK mesonet site). Each of these circulations has been very
short lived, likely due to the limited instability. One TDS has been
observed near Purcell this morning. One or two additional brief
tornadoes may be possible within this line as it moves northeast
with favorable low-level shear present on the INX VWP.
A brief window for severe weather potential will exist for the next
1 to 2 hours along the I-44 corridor from I-35 to northeast
Oklahoma.
This line is moving quickly east and will eventually outrun the best
low-level moisture which should bring an end to the greater short
term threat.
..Bentley/Mosier.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34079754 35329750 35899756 36429721 36949642 37039530
37009483 36619459 36109457 35809461 34979516 34309619
34079754
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a
brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough continues to move quickly eastward into the
southern High Plains, with a lead vorticity maximum also noted on
satellite imagery over northwest TX. Regional radar imagery shows a
line of thunderstorms along the leading edge of this vorticity
maximum. Expectation is for both the shortwave trough and lead
vorticity maximum to continue quickly northeastward, resulting in
strong forcing for ascent from OK through the Ozark Plateau and into
the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys today. Low-level moisture advection
ahead of this wave will support modest buoyancy, with thunderstorms
anticipated across much of this region throughout the period.
Another shortwave trough is dropping quickly southward through CA,
and is expected to pivot eastward through southern CA and AZ this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this
wave as well.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
As previously mentioned, a lead vorticity maximum is likely
supporting the line of thunderstorms currently ongoing from
southwest OK into southwest TX. Expectation is for this line to
continue northeastward today, into an airmass that is quickly
modifying amid strong low-level moisture advection. Many sites in OK
are observing dewpoints 25 to 35 deg F higher than 24 hours ago.
Thunderstorms within the line are currently elevated, but there
could be a trend towards a more surface-based character over the
next few hours amid a combination of increasing low-level moisture
and cooling mid-level temperatures. This appears most likely from
central OK through northeast OK into far southwest MO and far
southeast KS, from around 13Z through 18Z. After 18Z, the quick
progression of the shortwave will likely lead to an outpacing of the
better low-level moisture return, with dewpoints across much of MO
maxing out around 58-60 deg F.
Given the robust shear already in place (recent KTLX VAD sampled
over 35 kt of 0-1 km shear and over 55 kt of 0-6 km shear), this
potential for surface-based storms will increase the overall risk
for damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado. Recently issued MCD
#0006 addresses the near-term severe potential across this region.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Low-level moisture will be lower here than areas farther south,
likely remaining the 50s, but strong forcing for ascent and robust
wind fields could still result in damaging gusts, particularly near
and just ahead of the surface low forecast to move quickly
northeastward from central KS through northwest MO, southern/eastern
IA, and southern WI. Wind probabilities were expanded northwestward
given anticipated track of the surface low. Strong gusts also remain
possible along the cold front associated with this low, but limited
low-level moisture and buoyancy should keep this time isolated as
well.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
An upper trough will amplify and move eastward across the eastern
CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves across the
Great Lakes region. A surface low initially over the TN Valley will
move towards the Mid Atlantic, as another surface low develops
farther north near the lower Great Lakes.
Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from
parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians vicinity.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be strong, and seasonably rich low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
Organized cells/clusters that develop during the D2/Friday period
may persist through at least the first part of the day, with a
continued threat for at least locally damaging wind, and potentially
a tornado threat where vigorous surface-based convection can
persist. Longevity of the threat with time and eastward extent
remains uncertain, with an expected tendency for weakening buoyancy
and diminishing ascent across the warm sector. Some potential for
locally damaging wind could spread into parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia before the threat diminishes as the cold front moves
through.
A Marginal Risk has been included for areas forecast to be
along/ahead of the cold front at the start of the period and
near/south of the consensus surface-low track. A Slight Risk was
considered for parts of eastern MS into AL and western GA, as a
continuation of the severe threat from late D2/Friday into Saturday
morning, but deferred to future outlooks given uncertainty regarding
the impact of widespread convection within the warm sector by the
beginning of the D3/Saturday period.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the central CONUS today,
supporting the development of a weak surface low over the Sabine
River Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping across the southern
Plains tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the aforementioned low and
ahead of the surface cold front, dry downslope flow is expected
across much of western Texas Friday afternoon for at least a few
hours. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with
15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights have been added to account for
these conditions. There are questions regarding how appreciable
rainfall accumulations will be in west-central Texas, where Elevated
highlights may need adjustments in future outlooks.
..Squitieri.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses,
will traverse the central U.S. today, with a surface cyclone poised
to deepen while translating from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes in tandem with the first mid-level impulse. As this occurs, a
broad region of 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will
overspread western Texas into Oklahoma behind a cold front through
the day. However, RH will dip only into the 25-40 percent range, and
will be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, putting fuel
receptiveness to wildfire spread into question. While localized
wildfire spread potential is evident, such conditions do not appear
widespread enough to warrant fire weather highlights.
..Squitieri.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.
...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west,
cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday
morning.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector
destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.
Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.
..Dean.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a
brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet
streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak
instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of
this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast
soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around
750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to
mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5
C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with
cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion
could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A
brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat
could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.
...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet,
will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take
place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and
lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an
axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from
central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line
of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability
axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move
east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis
at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to
70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that
can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and
possibly a brief tornado.
At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe
threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid
Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe
wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the
mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri
across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have
expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this
possibility.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning from west and northwest Texas northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A low pressure center is evident on water vapor over northern Baja
California. This feature, and its associated mid-level trough will
move east-northeastward across northern Mexico this evening, and
into the southern Plains late tonight. Ahead of the trough,
low-level moisture will spread northward from north Texas into
Oklahoma, with the western edge of the moist airmass located from
southwest Oklahoma southward into west-central Texas. Weak
instability is expected to develop along the northwestern edge of
this airmass, where a low-level jet will gradually strengthen. Lift
associated with the jet will support isolated thunderstorm
development, beginning after midnight in west-central Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving
northeastward into southwest and central Oklahoma by late in the
period.
RAP forecast soundings around midnight show a stout cap in place
from near the instability axis eastward, suggesting that any storms
that can initiate will likely be elevated at first. Some of the
cells could become surface-based later tonight, as the capped
airmass shifts eastward due to the approaching mid-level trough.
Forecast soundings from west-central Texas into far southwest
Oklahoma have effective shear of 50 to 60 knots, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This could be enough for a marginal hail
threat. For cells that become surface-based, a few isolated severe
wind gusts will also be possible. The greatest potential for
isolated severe should be in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D2/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. Widespread rain/thunderstorm
activity can be expected across some portions of the central/eastern
Southern Plains into the Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less
precipitation is likely across portions of western Texas, where fire
concerns are possible D3/Friday.
...D3/Friday - Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts across the Southern Plains but has wavered
on overall amounts and exactly where this will be. Confidence is
moderate that portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma will
receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels guidance suggests
grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses present and ERCs
around the 80th percentile within these regions. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low on D3/Friday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph across portions of north-central and southwestern Texas. A 40
percent area was maintained with this outlook, given some continued
uncertainty in where the gradient of higher precipitation will be.
Another factor would be the duration of any Critical conditions as
relative humidity increases with colder air coming in behind the
departing cold front. Depending on how much precipitation occurs, a
Critical area may be warranted for the upcoming transition from D3
to D2.
Beyond D3/Friday, the trough will progress eastward, with heights
rising across the Southern Plains. The front will have ushered
moisture largely offshore, with dry conditions remaining across much
of the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry
conditions will be possible D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday before lighter
winds return.
..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.
...Discussion...
Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and
lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the
period.
A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will
move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday
morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring
60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold
front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about
09Z.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front
into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will
depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or
two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/
...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime
prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The
aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX
by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface
dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As
the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,
strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward
into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC
period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the
CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the
attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of
interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over
west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based
soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000
J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large
hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of
localized severe gusts.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.
...Discussion...
Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and
lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the
period.
A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will
move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday
morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring
60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold
front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about
09Z.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front
into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will
depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or
two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/
...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime
prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The
aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX
by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface
dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As
the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,
strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward
into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC
period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the
CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the
attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of
interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over
west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based
soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000
J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large
hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of
localized severe gusts.
Read more
