Storm Prediction Center

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE POE TO 30 NW HEZ TO 60 NNE HEZ. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 10/10Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 2. ..KERR..01/10/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-025-029-041-059-065-079-107-101000- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-041-049-061-063-065-067-073- 075-077-085-091-101-111-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-153-157- 101000- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GREENE HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN Read more

WW 2 TORNADO LA MS 100145Z - 101000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Nothern and Central Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 745 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A mix of clusters and supercells moving east-northeastward should pose a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds this evening into early Saturday morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA to 35 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward into the north-central states Monday night. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain anchored over the Gulf Coast states on Monday, as a cool and dry airmass remains in place over much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the nation Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward into the north-central states Monday night. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain anchored over the Gulf Coast states on Monday, as a cool and dry airmass remains in place over much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to develop over the nation Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/10/2026 Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W POE TO 20 E IER TO 35 SE MLU TO 50 E MLU. ..KERR..01/10/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-025-029-041-043-059-065-069-079-107-115-100840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES TENSAS VERNON MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-041-049-061-063-065-067-073- 075-077-085-091-101-111-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-153-157- 100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GREENE HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION NEWTON PERRY Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. However, rain will be less common over portions of southern Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida. As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However, fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. However, rain will be less common over portions of southern Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida. As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However, fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward through the Plains and southeast States with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX, overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle into region. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward through the Plains and southeast States with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX, overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle into region. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as northwesterly mid-level flow becomes established over much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. The pattern will keep a dry and cool airmass in place over most of the continental U.S., making thunderstorm development unlikely in the U.S. Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will move to the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as northwesterly mid-level flow becomes established over much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. The pattern will keep a dry and cool airmass in place over most of the continental U.S., making thunderstorm development unlikely in the U.S. Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast... Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes. Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic. One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast... Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes. Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic. One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast... Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes. Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic. One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026 Read more

MD 0017 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Areas affected...far eastern Texas across Louisiana and into central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 100507Z - 100730Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight in and close to the watch area. Locally damaging wind and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through Saturday morning. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest LA, with a cold front draped across far eastern TX. A warm front extends across northern LA and into central MS, with a very moist air mass across the warm sector. Lower 70s F dewpoints exist across much of southern LA and southeast TX, and this air mass should continue to gradually spread north. Currently, the strongest cells are along or even behind the cold front in TX, although isolated cells also exist along and north of the warm front. Recent convective trends suggest the activity approaching the Sabine Valley may become a bit better organized over the next few hours as cooling aloft gradually shifts east. In addition, southerly low-level winds ahead of this line and secondary pressure fall time after 09Z may yield a increased chance of isolated supercells across LA/MS well ahead of the cold front. Any isolated cells will have tornado potential as 0-1 SRH remains in excess of 100 to 150 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30958882 30419160 29909522 30069531 30409512 31869384 32249357 32719062 32598932 32088841 31238843 30958882 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 ..JEWELL..01/10/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-021-025-029-041-043-059-065-069-079-083-085-107-115-127- 100640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS VERNON WINN MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-041-049-061-063-065-067-073- 075-077-085-091-101-111-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-153-157- 100640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GREENE HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0002 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0016 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 100040Z - 100245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more watches are likely in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2 hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no inhibition remaining. Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level flow. While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS. Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed. Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed in the next hour or two. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018 32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125 30369211 30369339 30409384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight. As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z. Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens. ..Darrow.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states tonight. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is beginning to eject northeast across the central Plains early this evening. Water vapor supports this with the center of circulation near DDC. 500mb speed max affiliated with this feature will strengthen and translate across north TX-southern MO-central IN by the end of the period. This evolution will result in negligible height changes along/near the Gulf coast overnight. As this feature advances east, LLJ is expected to increase across LA later this evening, strengthening into northern AL by 10/12z. Low-level warm advection has proven instrumental in convective development much of the day with scattered thunderstorms persisting across the lower MS Valley. However, some increase in convection appears to be occurring across east TX as the southern influence of the ejecting short wave glances this region. Earlier thoughts regarding severe potential remain. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits strong shear and ample buoyancy for supercells. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous showers/thunderstorms will persist along a corridor from northern LA into central MS with the potential for some uptick in intensity overnight as the LLJ strengthens. ..Darrow.. 01/10/2026 Read more