SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.
...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.
With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.
Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.
...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.
..Dean.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are possible from late tonight into the
early morning on Thursday from parts of west and northwest Texas
northeastward into Oklahoma.
...West and Northwest Texas/Oklahoma...
A mid-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward from the
eastern Pacific this morning to the southern Plains tonight. Ahead
of the system, a lee surface trough will develop across the High
Plains, as winds become south to southeasterly over much of the
southern Plains. In response, moisture advection will increase over
the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northwestward into
parts of west-central and north-central Texas by midnight. Along the
northwestern edge of this airmass, low-level convergence is forecast
to increase after midnight, which will aid scattered thunderstorm
development during the overnight period. Instability along a
southwest-to-northeast corridor is forecast to remain weak, with
MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg. In addition, a low-level capping
inversion just the east of the instability axis will keep much of
the convection elevated. In spite of these negative factors,
effective shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment could support a marginal severe threat with cells that
rotate. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, mainly
in the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat will develop across the U.S. through daybreak on
Wednesday.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys tonight, as flow remains zonal from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain
over the south-central U.S. Limited large-scale ascent over the
continental U.S. will make thunderstorm development unlikely through
daybreak on Wednesday. No severe threat is forecast.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe threat will develop across the U.S. through daybreak on
Wednesday.
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys tonight, as flow remains zonal from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain
over the south-central U.S. Limited large-scale ascent over the
continental U.S. will make thunderstorm development unlikely through
daybreak on Wednesday. No severe threat is forecast.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.
...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
be. Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
outlooks.
Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
at this time.
..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 141200Z
A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on
D3/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs, southerly flow will
increase with moisture advection into the western portion of the
Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys.
Widespread rain/thunderstorm activity can be expected across some
portions of the central/eastern Southern Plains into the
Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less precipitation is likely
across portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma, where fire
concerns are possible D4/Friday and 5/Saturday.
...(D4/Friday - D5/Saturday) Southwestern/West-Central Texas...
Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient
in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward.
Confidence is increasing that portions of western Texas into western
Oklahoma will receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels
guidance suggests grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses
present and ERCs around the 80th percentile. Strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. Overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20
percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around
20 mph. A 40 percent area was included at this time given some
uncertainty still in where the gradient of higher precipitation will
be. Should precipitation totals exceed or not meet expectation,
some reduction or expansion of this area may be needed in upcoming
outlooks.
Lingering Elevated to Critical conditions may be possible again
across portions of southwestern Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
on D5/Saturday. For now confidence is too low to include any areas
at this time.
..Thornton/Elizalde-garcia.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Discussion...
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with
some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over
the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the
CONUS.
A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will
spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related
thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore.
Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to
weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but
such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.
...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing
and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying
surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the
development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially
modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given
poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --
especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an
expansive area of conditional severe potential.
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading
east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS
Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for
this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks
east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely
dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If
storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher
severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado.
Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower
OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe
potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the
low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of
severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will
be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending
on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.
..Weinman.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward
across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High
Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of
weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary
layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with
modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will
yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.
A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the
06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective
shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line
segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain
slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts
will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.
...Pacific Northwest...
In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the
Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective
band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While
locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak
buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in
severe-gust potential.
..Weinman.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
Expansion was given to the Elevated across the Front Range in
Colorado and into northern Kansas with this outlook in alignment
with recent trends in hi-res data. Within the broader Elevated,
locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the
foothills outside of the Denver metro. See previous discussion below
for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
Expansion was given to the Elevated across the Front Range in
Colorado and into northern Kansas with this outlook in alignment
with recent trends in hi-res data. Within the broader Elevated,
locally Critical conditions will be possible, primarily in the
foothills outside of the Denver metro. See previous discussion below
for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Discussion...
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with
some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over
the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the
CONUS.
A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will
spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related
thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore.
Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to
weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but
such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Discussion...
A progressive upper-flow pattern will continue over the CONUS with
some amplification occurring through tonight within split flow over
the West. Convective potential will be essentially nil over the
CONUS.
A southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of California will
spread southeastward toward Baja, with any related
thunderstorm-conducive environment expected to remain well offshore.
Multiple shortwave troughs will cross or approach the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Cooling mid-level temperatures may contribute to
weak buoyancy and some potential for a few lightning flashes, but
such potential is likely to remain below 10 percent.
..Guyer/Moore.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows two low-amplitude shortwave
troughs, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other
moving through the central Plains, embedded within a predominantly
zonal regime that extends across the CONUS. Both of these waves will
progress eastward throughout the day, with another shortwave
dropping southeastward from Canadian Prairies through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stable conditions will precede these
waves, with any notable low-level moisture displaced well south over
central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Farther west, current satellite imagery shows a deepening cyclone
over central/southern CA coast. This cyclone is forecast to continue
southward throughout much of the period before pivoting more
southeastward and eventually eastward towards the northern Baja
Peninsula. Deeper convection is anticipated in proximity to this
cyclone, but is currently expected to remain offshore and/or farther
south along the northern Baja Coast.
Lastly, a lead shortwave trough is expected to progress quickly
across the Pacific Northwest tonight, ahead of a deeper shortwave
expected Wednesday. Cooling low to mid-level temperatures could
result in shallow buoyancy ahead of this wave, which could result in
sporadic flashes along the WA coast after 00Z. Current expectation
is for lightning coverage to be less than 10%.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows two low-amplitude shortwave
troughs, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other
moving through the central Plains, embedded within a predominantly
zonal regime that extends across the CONUS. Both of these waves will
progress eastward throughout the day, with another shortwave
dropping southeastward from Canadian Prairies through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stable conditions will precede these
waves, with any notable low-level moisture displaced well south over
central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Farther west, current satellite imagery shows a deepening cyclone
over central/southern CA coast. This cyclone is forecast to continue
southward throughout much of the period before pivoting more
southeastward and eventually eastward towards the northern Baja
Peninsula. Deeper convection is anticipated in proximity to this
cyclone, but is currently expected to remain offshore and/or farther
south along the northern Baja Coast.
Lastly, a lead shortwave trough is expected to progress quickly
across the Pacific Northwest tonight, ahead of a deeper shortwave
expected Wednesday. Cooling low to mid-level temperatures could
result in shallow buoyancy ahead of this wave, which could result in
sporadic flashes along the WA coast after 00Z. Current expectation
is for lightning coverage to be less than 10%.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/06/2026
Read more
