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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Jan 10, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward. This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe probabilities have been removed with this update. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response. A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Southeast... An energetic mid-level trough accompanied by a robust surface cold front will move into the Eastern Seaboard Sunday. Latest model guidance depicts current band of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front stretching from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic diminishing through tonight into D2/Sunday. A dry, post-frontal environment with downsloping support from the Appalachians will encompass the Southeast on Sunday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of 25-35% will allow for elevated fire weather conditions to impact southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas Sunday, where precipitation will be absent or limited. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. However, rain will be less common over portions of southern Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida. As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However, fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Southeast... An energetic mid-level trough accompanied by a robust surface cold front will move into the Eastern Seaboard Sunday. Latest model guidance depicts current band of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front stretching from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid-Atlantic diminishing through tonight into D2/Sunday. A dry, post-frontal environment with downsloping support from the Appalachians will encompass the Southeast on Sunday. Northwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity of 25-35% will allow for elevated fire weather conditions to impact southeastern Georgia and the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas Sunday, where precipitation will be absent or limited. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the eastern US will continue to intensify as it moves offshore D2/Sunday. Strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the Mid Atlantic and southeast states through the day. Considerable rainfall associated with the trough and an advancing surface cold front will likely mitigate fire weather concerns from the northern Gulf Coast into the Mid Atlantic. However, rain will be less common over portions of southern Georgia, the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas and northern Florida. As the front moves offshore, dry northerly flow is likely with gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 35%. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible along the immediate coastal plain. However, fuels here remain only marginally receptive to fire spread in areas without recent precipitation. Thus, broader fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is expected to limit lightning potential. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night. The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit thunderstorm potential. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic through the day. In association with these features, shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands. ..Dean.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Southern Plains... A dry, post-frontal air mass continues to filter into the Southern Plains. Sustained north winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) combined and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across a broad swath of the Southern Plains through the afternoon. The best alignment of breezy north winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels will be across south-central TX and the Edwards Plateau areas, where the lack of recent rainfall events have contributed to a more receptive fuelscape. Although some rainfall had fallen across portions of northwestern TX, TX Panhandle and southwestern OK in recent days, pockets of drier fine fuels that avoided wetting rainfall could support a locally elevated fire threat through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward through the Plains and southeast States with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX, overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle into region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...Southern Plains... A dry, post-frontal air mass continues to filter into the Southern Plains. Sustained north winds of 15-20 mph (locally 25 mph) combined and relative humidity falling to around 15% will support elevated fire weather conditions across a broad swath of the Southern Plains through the afternoon. The best alignment of breezy north winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels will be across south-central TX and the Edwards Plateau areas, where the lack of recent rainfall events have contributed to a more receptive fuelscape. Although some rainfall had fallen across portions of northwestern TX, TX Panhandle and southwestern OK in recent days, pockets of drier fine fuels that avoided wetting rainfall could support a locally elevated fire threat through the afternoon. ..Williams.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the US today and tonight. A cold front will sweep southeastward through the Plains and southeast States with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Strong high pressure will rapidly build over the Rockies and western states. A dry post-frontal air mass will develop in the wake of the front, with the driest portions expected across parts of the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope and gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH values as low as 15-20% this afternoon. While some rain has fallen over the eastern portions of south-central TX, overall fuels remain quite dry. This will promote a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Valley and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Fire weather concerns will quickly diminish this evening as winds weaken and colder temperatures settle into region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will continue through the early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the southern Appalachians. ...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response. A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak. ..Smith/Halbert.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC MD 20

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
MD 0020 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL INTO FAR WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0921 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AL into far western GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 101521Z - 101645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado continues across Tornado Watch 03 this morning. A downstream watch is not currently anticipated, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBMX/KMXX depicts a northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS tracking eastward across central and eastern AL. The primary severe risk associated with this activity should remain focused along north/south-oriented parts of the line (i.e., just west of the KMXX radar) -- where around 50 kt of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (per KMXX VWP) is favoring more intense updrafts keeping pace with the larger-scale cold pool. Here, moist inflow (upper 60s dewpoints) and ample low-level hodograph size/curvature (around 270 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMXX VWP) will continue to support embedded mesovortex/supercell structures and an attendant risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two. The northern portion of the QLCS moving into west-central GA is also taking on a more north/south orientation, and this area may also be locally favorable for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado in the near term. However, as the QLCS approaches the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 03, buoyancy becomes quite limited, and current expectation is for convection to gradually weaken with northward and eastward extent. Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Smith.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32068715 32628648 33458558 33828509 33858478 33688457 33278464 32918495 32568515 32158561 32018590 31828639 31738690 31808710 32068715 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 3 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PIB TO 10 SE PIB TO 30 WSW SEM TO 35 N SEM TO 10 NNW RMG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019 ..WEINMAN..01/10/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-019-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-085-101-111-121-123- 129-131-101540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC045-055-115-143-149-233-101540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL CHATTOOGA FLOYD HARALSON HEARD POLK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 3

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
WW 3 TORNADO AL GA MS 100950Z - 101600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Saturday morning from 350 AM until 1000 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the morning as an upper trough approaches. Low-level shear profiles will strengthen, posing a risk of a few supercells capable of tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Mc Comb MS to 30 miles east of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast this morning and early afternoon from LA/MS into AL/GA. ...LA/MS/AL/GA... Strong and deep southwesterly flow is present today over much of the southeast US, with a well-defined baroclinic zone extending from central LA across parts of MS/AL into northern GA. Thunderstorms have been intensifying in the past few hours across southeast MS, where multiple supercell structures and a couple of confirmed tornadoes have occurred. This activity is expected to persist for several more hours, tracking across parts of central AL and eventually into western GA. Low-level winds and shear have become sufficiently strong to support risk of a strong tornado or two along this corridor. By early afternoon, storms will spread eastward into GA and upstate SC, where very weak instability will limit the severe threat. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/10/2026 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 3 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0003 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

SPC Jan 10, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central and eastern U.S. during the mid-week. This feature is forecast to move eastward toward the Atlantic Seaboard late in the week, as another trough takes its place further west across the Mississippi Valley. In response to the pattern, a large area of high pressure is forecast to settle into the central U.S. on Wednesday and move slowly across the Gulf Coast region on Thursday and Friday. Another large area of high pressure is forecast to move southward into the western and central U.S. by the weekend. As a result, the airmass across most of the continental U.S. during the mid to late week should be cold and relatively dry, suggesting thunderstorm development will be unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

SPC MD 18

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
MD 0018 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 2... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Areas affected...parts of south central Mississippi and adjacent portions of western Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 100804Z - 101000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...The evolution of a supercell or two with increasing potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one, east of Jackson toward the Meridian MS vicinity through 3-5 AM CST. A new tornado will probably be needed within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...There has been at least some recent increase in thunderstorm development within the moist warm sector, near/north of the McComb vicinity, where surface dew points near 70F appear to be supporting moderate boundary-layer based CAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. This appears to be occurring as a weak surface low migrates eastward into west central Mississippi near Jackson. During the next few hours, models suggest that strengthening southwesterly flow around the 850 mb level (to around 40 kt) may contribute to enlarging low-level hodographs along a remnant surface baroclinic zone southeast of Jackson into areas near/south of Meridian, coincident with boundary-layer destabilization associated with a slow northward advection of the warmer and more moist warm sector air. It appears this environment could become conducive to substantive further thunderstorm intensification and organization, including the evolution of a supercell or two accompanied by increasing potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32629018 32848928 32828793 32138807 31638894 31519040 32089058 32629018 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 2 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
5 months ago
WW 0002 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE POE TO 30 NW HEZ TO 60 NNE HEZ. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 10/10Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 2. ..KERR..01/10/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-025-029-041-059-065-079-107-101000- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-041-049-061-063-065-067-073- 075-077-085-091-101-111-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-153-157- 101000- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GREENE HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN Read more
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