SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the eastern
Seaboard on Sunday, as northwest flow aloft becomes established
across much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the
south-central and southeastern U.S., keeping conditions relative dry
and stable over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.
As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will intensify as it moves eastward across the
central US D2/Saturday. In the wake of the trough, a cold front will
sweep southeastward through the Plains. A dry post-frontal air mass
will develop over much of the Plains, with the driest portions
expected across parts of south-central TX and the Rio Grande Valley.
Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with the dry air
mass likely supporting elevated fire-weather conditions over
portions of south-central TX and the Big Bend Region Saturday
afternoon.
As the front moves eastward, there is some uncertainty regarding how
far west thunderstorms will form overnight D1/Friday into early
D2/Saturday. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may briefly be
possible farther east if significant rain does not fall. However,
the most likely corridor is farther west toward the Big bend region
where the strongest winds and lowest RH are expected to persist.
Fire-weather concerns will quickly abate near sunset as a cooler air
mass enhances RH recoveries and winds slacken.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly
move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the
central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger
over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop
and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds
and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent
will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As
the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector
over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope
winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through
the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph,
but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support
increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing
winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into
the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside
of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions appear probable.
..Lyons.. 01/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.
...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...
Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period
before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently,
this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a
northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.
Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from
western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue
sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave
will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by
early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low
advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the
day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front
across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley,
primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ.
While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in
the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains
toward southern MO.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance
downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition
near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary
concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase
in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL
overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear
will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a
considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic
warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher
instability air mass.
At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe
probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf
states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the
higher-instability air mass.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas into the
central Gulf states.
...Southeast Texas to Central Gulf States...
Midlevel speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
Four Corners trough into southeast NM at the start of the period
before advancing into central OK by early evening. Subsequently,
this feature will eject into southeast MO by 10/12z in response to a
northern stream trough digging into the upper MS Valley overnight.
Late this evening, surface front had progressed to a position from
western IL-northern AR-southern OK. This boundary should continue
sagging south, and 00z model guidance suggests a weak surface wave
will develop along the trailing boundary over south-central TX by
early afternoon. Some deepening should occur as a weak surface low
advances across northern LA into MS late in the period. Early in the
day the primary focus for convection will be along the cold front
across the lower OH/TN Valley region into the lower MS Valley,
primarily driven by low-level warm advection beneath a modest LLJ.
While this early-day convection may pose some risk for damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado, the primary concern will occur later in
the day as the secondary speed max ejects across the southern Plains
toward southern MO.
Current thinking is elevated thunderstorms should develop ahead of
the ejecting speed max/short wave by 18z across south central TX.
This initial activity will likely be elevated, but as storms advance
downstream surface-based parcels will have negligible inhibition
near the lower Sabine River Valley. Hail/wind will be the primary
concern early with supercells. During the evening a marked increase
in the LLJ is expected across the lower MS Valley into northern AL
overnight. As convection advances east, stronger low-level shear
will favor some risk for tornadoes. While supercells are expected, a
considerable amount of convection is expected along the synoptic
warm front, and this should limit northward extent of higher
instability air mass.
At this time it does not appear necessary to increase severe
probabilities across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf
states, primarily due to the short wave ejecting well north of the
higher-instability air mass.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...01z Update...
Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it
translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max
shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance
into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite
imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting
east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of
weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to
northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though
some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong
height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX
exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the
weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor
organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the
aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable.
Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across
the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north
of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat
negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be noted with the most robust storms.
..Darrow.. 01/09/2026
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...01z Update...
Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it
translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max
shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance
into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite
imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting
east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of
weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to
northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though
some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong
height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX
exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the
weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor
organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the
aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable.
Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across
the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north
of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat
negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado
will be noted with the most robust storms.
..Darrow.. 01/09/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
The large-scale pattern over the CONUS will be generally
characterized by ridging over the West and troughing over the
eastern US this weekend through mid-next week. The upper high will
likely retreat over the West Coast, with strong north-northwest flow
aloft developing over the Rockies and Plains and deeper troughing
over the eastern US early to mid-next week. Little to no
precipitation is forecast for much of the western/central US during
the forecast period.
...Texas and southern/central High Plains...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of
west/central/south Texas Day 3/Saturday. Lingering dry/breezy
conditions will be in portions of south Texas on Day 3/Saturday
morning, with gusty northerly winds also likely in the morning and
continuing into the afternoon in the western Hill Country/vicinity
towards the Big Bend and the Rolling Plains. RH will drop in the
afternoon there will likely be enough overlap of breezy northerly
winds and low RH for elevated fire weather conditions. There is some
uncertainty regarding how far west thunderstorms will form on Day
2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday in central Texas and the duration of
coincident elevated winds/RH.
Elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of
northwest Kansas/vicinity as strong west-northwest winds develop on
Day 3/Saturday. However, forecast temperatures in the 40s and
minimum RH of 25-40% currently precludes elevated criteria being
met.
Dry conditions will continue across much of the western half of
Texas into mid-next week. Breezy winds are likely to return early to
mid-next week amid dry return flow and pre-frontal regimes. However,
there remains to much forecast uncertainty to identify areas and
introduce probabilities at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry/breezy northwest winds are expected across portions of the
Southeast, likely stretching from southeast Virginia through the
Carolinas, Georgia, and into Alabama and north Florida. Preceding
rainfall may mitigate these conditions, including just hours before
these post-frontal conditions develop. However, some areas may
remain dry with portions of the coastal Carolinas into southern
Georgia and north Florida currently favored. Dry conditions will
continue across much of Southeast into Day 6/Tuesday.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
The large-scale pattern over the CONUS will be generally
characterized by ridging over the West and troughing over the
eastern US this weekend through mid-next week. The upper high will
likely retreat over the West Coast, with strong north-northwest flow
aloft developing over the Rockies and Plains and deeper troughing
over the eastern US early to mid-next week. Little to no
precipitation is forecast for much of the western/central US during
the forecast period.
...Texas and southern/central High Plains...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions will develop across portions of
west/central/south Texas Day 3/Saturday. Lingering dry/breezy
conditions will be in portions of south Texas on Day 3/Saturday
morning, with gusty northerly winds also likely in the morning and
continuing into the afternoon in the western Hill Country/vicinity
towards the Big Bend and the Rolling Plains. RH will drop in the
afternoon there will likely be enough overlap of breezy northerly
winds and low RH for elevated fire weather conditions. There is some
uncertainty regarding how far west thunderstorms will form on Day
2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday in central Texas and the duration of
coincident elevated winds/RH.
Elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of
northwest Kansas/vicinity as strong west-northwest winds develop on
Day 3/Saturday. However, forecast temperatures in the 40s and
minimum RH of 25-40% currently precludes elevated criteria being
met.
Dry conditions will continue across much of the western half of
Texas into mid-next week. Breezy winds are likely to return early to
mid-next week amid dry return flow and pre-frontal regimes. However,
there remains to much forecast uncertainty to identify areas and
introduce probabilities at this time.
...Southeast...
Dry/breezy northwest winds are expected across portions of the
Southeast, likely stretching from southeast Virginia through the
Carolinas, Georgia, and into Alabama and north Florida. Preceding
rainfall may mitigate these conditions, including just hours before
these post-frontal conditions develop. However, some areas may
remain dry with portions of the coastal Carolinas into southern
Georgia and north Florida currently favored. Dry conditions will
continue across much of Southeast into Day 6/Tuesday.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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MD 0010 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Areas affected...Northern Arkansas into eastern Missouri and
southwest Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082114Z - 082315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A strong/severe thunderstorm or two will be possible
through late afternoon and early evening across parts of northern
Arkansas into eastern Missouri and far southwest Illinois. Storm
coverage is expected to be sufficiently limited to preclude watch
issuance, but trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows gradual vertical development
of cumulus along a trailing surface trough from southwest MO into
western AR. So far, this activity has been too shallow/weak to
produce lightning - likely owing to a combination of very modest
buoyancy profiles, lingering inhibition near 750 mb (evidenced by
residual low/mid-level stratus to the east and sampled by the 18z
LZK sounding), and decreasing forcing for ascent as the primary
synoptic wave lifts to the north. However, latest mesoanalysis
depicts a plume of low-level theta-e advection immediately
downstream of this shallow convective band. Within this regime
dewpoints have been very slowly increasing into the low/mid 60s with
cloud breaks in northern AR supporting pockets of modest heating
(temperatures up to around 70 F). As such, the downstream
thermodynamic environment is slowly evolving to become more
supportive of deep convection.
Strong low-level shear within the lowest few kilometers sampled by
the 18z LZK sounding and recent KLZK VWP observations suggest that
organized convection, including supercells, are possible if
convection can become sufficiently deep to realize the full
kinematic profile. Confidence in this potential remains limited,
however, due to the aforementioned limitations to deep convection.
Recent deterministic CAM guidance also shows limited confidence with
most solutions depicting weak/transient UH/updraft signals across
the region while a few - notably the more aggressive RRFS - depict
the potential for more robust, albeit very isolated, convection.
While watch issuance is not currently anticipated, trends will
continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.
..Moore/Smith.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35899372 38749198 39069180 39259153 39279025 39208994
38948984 38068968 37798971 37628990 35769144 35559178
35539218 35509362 35609378 35899372
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI...MISSISSIPPI...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will
continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...20z Update...
The Slight Risk across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas,
western Missouri, and western Arkansas was removed with this update.
The Marginal Risk was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. A
broken line of storms continues eastward from southern Missouri into
central Arkansas but has shown signs of weakening as it has outrun
the better moisture to the south. Hi-res guidance from the HRRR and
RRFS suggest redevelopment of stronger storms, and perhaps a
supercell or two, will be possible across central and northeastern
Arkansas later this afternoon.
There are a few breaks in the cloud cover across central/southern
Arkansas that could allow for pockets of heating by the afternoon,
but overall thermal profiles appear meager, though deep layer shear
will remain strong. This leads to some uncertainty in maintenance of
any supercells that do develop and as such, a Marginal was
maintained to support some isolated threat.
Another location of interest for the evening will be across portions
of Illinois, as mentioned in the previous outlook. Across
south-central Illinois some better overlap of weak surface-based
instability beneath the LLJ may occur later this evening. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border. A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI. A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours. Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy. It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks. Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening.
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop. Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening. However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.
...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.
...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across
the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance
northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and
related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface
cyclone -- initially over the TN Valley -- will track northeastward
along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the
midlevel jet.
At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast,
along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be
somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern
AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will
continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of
damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a
corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of
south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored
for a potential upgrade.
Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the
midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will
become limited with northward extent, though the
northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will
continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern
VA.
..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
The Elevated area was expanded in the Big Bend and into northwest
Texas, while it was adjusted from Del Rio to Laredo into the western
Hill Country based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance.
West-northwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and minimum RH of 15-25%
are likely from the Big Bend into northwest Texas and the western
Hill Country during the afternoon and early evening. Winds will
shift to north-northwest as another cold front drops south across
Texas during the evening and overnight. Locally elevated to elevated
conditions are expected in the evening across the western Hill
Country/vicinity and shifting southwards into portions of south
Texas overnight, mostly focused closer to the Rio Grande.
Gusty and dry north-northeast winds are expected again across
southern California, but recent precipitation has left fuel moisture
above normal and well above critical thresholds.
..Nauslar.. 01/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the central CONUS today,
supporting the development of a weak surface low over the Sabine
River Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping across the southern
Plains tomorrow (Friday). To the west of the aforementioned low and
ahead of the surface cold front, dry downslope flow is expected
across much of western Texas Friday afternoon for at least a few
hours. 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds will overlap with
15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights have been added to account for
these conditions. There are questions regarding how appreciable
rainfall accumulations will be in west-central Texas, where Elevated
highlights may need adjustments in future outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0009 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1... FOR FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026
Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...southwest
Missouri...northern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...
Valid 081644Z - 081845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...A squall line is expected to push east/northeast into
southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas through early/mid
afternoon. Severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado, will be
possible. Watch issuance downstream of ongoing WW 1 is uncertain,
but will be considered if trends begin to suggest an increasing
severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Cloud-top temperatures and lightning data have shown a
steady weakening of a squall line across northeast OK over the past
hour as the band of storms begins to struggle against diminishing
MLCAPE. However, severe wind gusts, including an 81 mph gust near
Independence, KS, continue to be noted with this line. These winds
are primarily being driven by very strong low-level flow/wind shear
as depicted by KINX, KSRX, and KSGF VWP observations that show 50
knots winds near 1 km ARL. These strong kinematics are expected to
persist - if not intensify - through late morning/early afternoon as
the primary upper wave continues to eject towards the mid-MS Valley
and an attendant surface cyclone intensifies.
Consequently, even with very meager buoyancy downstream into AR and
southern MO (MLCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg), severe/damaging winds
appear probable, and a brief tornado or two may be possible with any
deeper convective elements given 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. That
said, it remains unclear how widespread these threats will be
considering the recent weakening trend, and may be conditioned on
the quality of moisture return into and north of the Ozark Plateau
through mid-afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored for the
need for downstream watch issuance.
..Moore.. 01/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 35699149 34869516 34859546 34899555 35049562 35189554
35459536 35709519 35889514 36109508 36279505 36479504
36609505 36779511 36909516 37049515 37189504 38199247
38039209 37799181 37479167 37229156 36959147 36649137
36209129 35889131 35699149
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
Read more
