SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows two low-amplitude shortwave
troughs, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other
moving through the central Plains, embedded within a predominantly
zonal regime that extends across the CONUS. Both of these waves will
progress eastward throughout the day, with another shortwave
dropping southeastward from Canadian Prairies through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stable conditions will precede these
waves, with any notable low-level moisture displaced well south over
central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Farther west, current satellite imagery shows a deepening cyclone
over central/southern CA coast. This cyclone is forecast to continue
southward throughout much of the period before pivoting more
southeastward and eventually eastward towards the northern Baja
Peninsula. Deeper convection is anticipated in proximity to this
cyclone, but is currently expected to remain offshore and/or farther
south along the northern Baja Coast.
Lastly, a lead shortwave trough is expected to progress quickly
across the Pacific Northwest tonight, ahead of a deeper shortwave
expected Wednesday. Cooling low to mid-level temperatures could
result in shallow buoyancy ahead of this wave, which could result in
sporadic flashes along the WA coast after 00Z. Current expectation
is for lightning coverage to be less than 10%.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/06/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern
Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward
on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the
Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has
trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near
the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large
warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the
period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe
threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on
guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward
extent of the favorable warm sector.
...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East...
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday,
with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level
trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of
the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy
will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However,
any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into
Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential
for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest
solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable
intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential
with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold
front.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern
Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward
on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the
Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has
trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near
the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large
warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the
period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe
threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on
guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward
extent of the favorable warm sector.
...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East...
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday,
with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level
trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of
the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy
will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However,
any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into
Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential
for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest
solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable
intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential
with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold
front.
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.
...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.
In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.
There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.
...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.
In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.
There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.
...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.
In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.
There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow
(Wednesday), supporting surface low development over the southern
High Plains. While moisture return is anticipated over the southern
Plains, some dry downslope flow is expected across portions of
western Texas, as well as the central High Plains. In these
aforementioned areas, sustained westerly winds may briefly exceed 15
mph. However, guidance varies in terms of how low RH will dip by
afternoon peak heating, with some guidance showing RH reaching 20
percent in some spots, with other members showing RH only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range on a widespread basis. Given dry fuels,
locally Elevated conditions are possible, but do not seem widespread
enough to warrant highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
Weak surface lee troughing beneath zonal flow aloft will support
relatively quiescent fire weather conditions for most of the central
CONUS today. The one exception will be over portions of the central
High Plains, where locally stronger downslope flow is expected as a
small mid-level impulse overspreads the region during the afternoon.
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH
will overlap with drying fuels for several hours, warranting the
continuance of Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 01/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period.
As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization.
There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering
near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated
strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat.
...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period.
As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization.
There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering
near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated
strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat.
...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.
..Dean.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Thermodynamic profiles across the U.S. remain generally stable, or
at least not appreciably conducive to convective development capable
of producing lightning, and models indicate little potential for
change today through tonight. Limited ongoing moisture return, off a
still slowly modifying Gulf boundary-layer, appears likely to become
cut off, as low-level flow takes on an increasing westerly component
to the south and southwest of a modest cyclone forecast to migrate
across the southern Great Lakes region. Increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with secondary cyclogenesis near/offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast by late
tonight, may be accompanied by a substantive increase in
thunderstorm development, but mostly ahead of the trailing cold
front, near/east of the Gulf Stream.
Upstream, models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo
amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
western North America. It appears that this may include at least
one vigorous short wave impulse digging toward the Pacific
Northwest, accompanied by a potentially notable convective band with
embedded thunderstorm activity, but probably not quite reaching the
coastal waters prior to 12Z Wednesday.
Farther south, within larger-scale troughing digging across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific, a relatively
compact cyclonic mid-level circulation may evolve, with an
associated cold core that could support a developing area of
thunderstorm activity. However, before undergoing an
east-northeastward acceleration toward northern Baja and the
Southwestern international border vicinity, it appears that this
will remain offshore through 12Z Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Thermodynamic profiles across the U.S. remain generally stable, or
at least not appreciably conducive to convective development capable
of producing lightning, and models indicate little potential for
change today through tonight. Limited ongoing moisture return, off a
still slowly modifying Gulf boundary-layer, appears likely to become
cut off, as low-level flow takes on an increasing westerly component
to the south and southwest of a modest cyclone forecast to migrate
across the southern Great Lakes region. Increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with secondary cyclogenesis near/offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast by late
tonight, may be accompanied by a substantive increase in
thunderstorm development, but mostly ahead of the trailing cold
front, near/east of the Gulf Stream.
Upstream, models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo
amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
western North America. It appears that this may include at least
one vigorous short wave impulse digging toward the Pacific
Northwest, accompanied by a potentially notable convective band with
embedded thunderstorm activity, but probably not quite reaching the
coastal waters prior to 12Z Wednesday.
Farther south, within larger-scale troughing digging across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific, a relatively
compact cyclonic mid-level circulation may evolve, with an
associated cold core that could support a developing area of
thunderstorm activity. However, before undergoing an
east-northeastward acceleration toward northern Baja and the
Southwestern international border vicinity, it appears that this
will remain offshore through 12Z Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent for tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Pacific Coast...
Even in the waters offshore of the central California coast, limited
weak thunderstorm activity has become increasingly sparse, if not
completely diminished, based on recent lightning data. Forecast
soundings (and 06/00Z observed sounding from Oakland) near coastal
areas do still indicate very weak lingering boundary-layer CAPE, but
with rather low and lowering/warming equilibrium levels into the
overnight hours, as a weak occluding surface low migrates southward
offshore of the coast.
..Kerr.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent for tonight.
...01Z Update...
...Pacific Coast...
Even in the waters offshore of the central California coast, limited
weak thunderstorm activity has become increasingly sparse, if not
completely diminished, based on recent lightning data. Forecast
soundings (and 06/00Z observed sounding from Oakland) near coastal
areas do still indicate very weak lingering boundary-layer CAPE, but
with rather low and lowering/warming equilibrium levels into the
overnight hours, as a weak occluding surface low migrates southward
offshore of the coast.
..Kerr.. 01/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. A quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the
Plains D3/Wednesday with some lingering Elevated fire weather
conditions across eastern New Mexico.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D4/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance has continued to differ on exactly
how far into the Plains this moisture reaches, but the trend
continues to be for more widespread wetting rainfall D4/Thursday,
which may aid in improving status of fuels and mitigating any
widespread fire weather concerns. As it stands, guidance suggests a
gradient in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward. It
is possible that portions of western Texas remain drier with less
meaningful precipitation.
There is some indication that on D5/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D4/Thursday. Should precipitation totals be light across
portions of western Texas, an area may need to be included in
upcoming outlook updates.
..Thornton.. 01/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. A quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the
Plains D3/Wednesday with some lingering Elevated fire weather
conditions across eastern New Mexico.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D4/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance has continued to differ on exactly
how far into the Plains this moisture reaches, but the trend
continues to be for more widespread wetting rainfall D4/Thursday,
which may aid in improving status of fuels and mitigating any
widespread fire weather concerns. As it stands, guidance suggests a
gradient in precipitation amounts extending from central
Oklahoma/north-central Texas, with the heaviest amounts eastward. It
is possible that portions of western Texas remain drier with less
meaningful precipitation.
There is some indication that on D5/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D4/Thursday. Should precipitation totals be light across
portions of western Texas, an area may need to be included in
upcoming outlook updates.
..Thornton.. 01/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
