Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Latest guidance continues to depict very limited potential for thunderstorms across the country Tuesday/Tuesday night. Despite an influx of Gulf moisture into the lower MS Valley and a passing upper wave over the Plains, warm low/mid-level temperatures will preclude deep convection for the central/southern US. Some solutions - notably the NAM - hint at the potential for weak buoyancy across the central Rockies and northwest WA, but poor ensemble agreement limits confidence in the potential for lightning. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Latest guidance continues to depict very limited potential for thunderstorms across the country Tuesday/Tuesday night. Despite an influx of Gulf moisture into the lower MS Valley and a passing upper wave over the Plains, warm low/mid-level temperatures will preclude deep convection for the central/southern US. Some solutions - notably the NAM - hint at the potential for weak buoyancy across the central Rockies and northwest WA, but poor ensemble agreement limits confidence in the potential for lightning. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Latest guidance continues to depict very limited potential for thunderstorms across the country Tuesday/Tuesday night. Despite an influx of Gulf moisture into the lower MS Valley and a passing upper wave over the Plains, warm low/mid-level temperatures will preclude deep convection for the central/southern US. Some solutions - notably the NAM - hint at the potential for weak buoyancy across the central Rockies and northwest WA, but poor ensemble agreement limits confidence in the potential for lightning. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... The potential for strong/severe thunderstorms remains low for Monday across the country. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern CA coast Monday morning through early afternoon as cool temperatures aloft/weak buoyancy associated with an upper trough spread south/southeastward before shifting offshore later in the day. Further east, one or more weak upper-level disturbances moving across the northern Great Basin may support adequate ascent and mid-level destabilization for sporadic lightning flashes during the afternoon hours. For both regimes, buoyancy profiles will be too limited to support an appreciable strong/severe thunderstorm threat. ..Moore.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon. Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon. Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon. Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon. Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower relative humidity farther east across the Plains. Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL will likely preclude organized severe storm potential. ..Guyer/Bunting.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL will likely preclude organized severe storm potential. ..Guyer/Bunting.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL will likely preclude organized severe storm potential. ..Guyer/Bunting.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs over the eastern CONUS, one moving through the Northeast and one moving through the eastern Gulf/FL Peninsula. These waves are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward today as the modest upper ridging currently over the central CONUS shifts eastward as well. Some dampening of this ridging is possible as a shortwave trough moves from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Surface ridging will prevail in the vicinity of these waves, with the associated stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. The only exception is across south FL, where enough low-level moisture will be in place along a weakening frontal boundary to support a thunderstorm or two. Upper troughing will gradually deepen over the western CONUS as a series of shortwave troughs progress across the region. First shortwave in this series is forecast to reach the central CA Coast this afternoon before continuing eastward through NV and weakening. Another shortwave is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast this evening. This overall evolution will result in mid-level cooling and persistent forcing for ascent overspreading much of the region today through tonight. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could occasionally become marginally conducive for deeper convection capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs over the eastern CONUS, one moving through the Northeast and one moving through the eastern Gulf/FL Peninsula. These waves are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward today as the modest upper ridging currently over the central CONUS shifts eastward as well. Some dampening of this ridging is possible as a shortwave trough moves from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Surface ridging will prevail in the vicinity of these waves, with the associated stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. The only exception is across south FL, where enough low-level moisture will be in place along a weakening frontal boundary to support a thunderstorm or two. Upper troughing will gradually deepen over the western CONUS as a series of shortwave troughs progress across the region. First shortwave in this series is forecast to reach the central CA Coast this afternoon before continuing eastward through NV and weakening. Another shortwave is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast this evening. This overall evolution will result in mid-level cooling and persistent forcing for ascent overspreading much of the region today through tonight. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could occasionally become marginally conducive for deeper convection capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs over the eastern CONUS, one moving through the Northeast and one moving through the eastern Gulf/FL Peninsula. These waves are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward today as the modest upper ridging currently over the central CONUS shifts eastward as well. Some dampening of this ridging is possible as a shortwave trough moves from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Surface ridging will prevail in the vicinity of these waves, with the associated stable conditions precluding thunderstorms. The only exception is across south FL, where enough low-level moisture will be in place along a weakening frontal boundary to support a thunderstorm or two. Upper troughing will gradually deepen over the western CONUS as a series of shortwave troughs progress across the region. First shortwave in this series is forecast to reach the central CA Coast this afternoon before continuing eastward through NV and weakening. Another shortwave is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast this evening. This overall evolution will result in mid-level cooling and persistent forcing for ascent overspreading much of the region today through tonight. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could occasionally become marginally conducive for deeper convection capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/04/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South. Read more