SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across the central U.S., with
an embedded mid-level impulse poised to impinge on the southern
Rockies today. Gradual surface low deepening will commence across
the central Plains during the afternoon, encouraging both westerly
isallobaric and downslope surface flow along portions of the central
and southern High Plains, where Elevated highlights are in place.
Here, fuels continue to cure given the absence of rain, and
widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15-25
percent RH should overspread these fuels for several hours this
afternoon. Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of locally
stronger flow (i.e. 20 mph winds amid 15 percent RH) across portions
of the Texas Panhandle, where Critical highlights have been
maintained.
..Squitieri.. 01/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across
the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic.
Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears
likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one
notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the
eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough
emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further
suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great
Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight.
However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of
the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.
Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across
the central Great Plains into Midwest. This may be accompanied by
some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly
modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped
by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through
mid-troposphere.
...California...
Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the
digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become
supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may
approach the central California coast this morning before slowly
shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas
through the remainder of the period.
...Great Basin into Rockies...
Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for
ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing
northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute
to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the
mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into
northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.
...Upper Midwest...
Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast
soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with
mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level
moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted
generally around the 700 mb layer. It might not be entirely out of
the question that this could support weak convection capable of
producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern
Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa)
tonight. However, probabilities for this still appear below the
minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across
the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic.
Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears
likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one
notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the
eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough
emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further
suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great
Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight.
However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of
the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.
Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across
the central Great Plains into Midwest. This may be accompanied by
some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly
modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped
by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through
mid-troposphere.
...California...
Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the
digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become
supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may
approach the central California coast this morning before slowly
shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas
through the remainder of the period.
...Great Basin into Rockies...
Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for
ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing
northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute
to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the
mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into
northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.
...Upper Midwest...
Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast
soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with
mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level
moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted
generally around the 700 mb layer. It might not be entirely out of
the question that this could support weak convection capable of
producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern
Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa)
tonight. However, probabilities for this still appear below the
minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level flow is trending more zonal across
the northern mid-latitudes, from the Pacific to the Atlantic.
Across the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, it appears
likely to remain more amplified through this period, with one
notable short wave trough forecast to continue digging across the
eastern Pacific. Downstream, a lower amplitude short wave trough
emerging from the Intermountain West may contribute to further
suppression of mid-level ridging as far south as the central Great
Plains into middle Mississippi Valley later today through tonight.
However, mid-level ridging is likely to be maintained across much of
the Gulf Basin and adjacent Gulf Coast, to the north of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high forming near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Farther east, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
shift a bit further offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard.
Beneath this regime, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence across
the central Great Plains into Midwest. This may be accompanied by
some low-level moistening off a Gulf boundary layer only slowly
modifying in the wake of recent cooling and/or drying. However,
forecast soundings indicate that this moisture return will be capped
by pronounced warm and dry layers in the lower through
mid-troposphere.
...California...
Stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent downstream of the
digging offshore short wave, which could potentially become
supportive of thermodynamic profiles conducive to thunderstorms, may
approach the central California coast this morning before slowly
shifting southward near, but mostly offshore of coastal areas
through the remainder of the period.
...Great Basin into Rockies...
Guidance continues to suggest that mid-level cooling and forcing for
ascent (associated with a short wave perturbation now progressing
northeast and east of the southern Sierra Nevada) could contribute
to the evolution of thermodynamic profiles at least marginally
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning, across the
mountains of north central/northeastern Utah this morning into
northwestern Colorado/adjacent southern Wyoming later today.
...Upper Midwest...
Downstream of the short wave emerging from the Great Basin, forecast
soundings indicate that steepening lapse rates associated with
mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, coupled with mid-level
moisture return, may support a corridor of destabilization rooted
generally around the 700 mb layer. It might not be entirely out of
the question that this could support weak convection capable of
producing lightning across the southern Minnesota through southern
Wisconsin vicinity (and adjacent portions of northern Illinois/Iowa)
tonight. However, probabilities for this still appear below the
minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S.
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into
Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper
troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on
observed and forecast soundings. Thermodynamic profiles appear to
have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection
capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and
central California through the northern Intermountain Region and
Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.
Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm
development has been generally negligible. With the onset of
diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this
evening into the overnight hours.
However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave
perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and
adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum
threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.
Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing
for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave
perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S.
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into
Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper
troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on
observed and forecast soundings. Thermodynamic profiles appear to
have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection
capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and
central California through the northern Intermountain Region and
Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.
Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm
development has been generally negligible. With the onset of
diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this
evening into the overnight hours.
However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave
perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and
adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum
threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.
Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing
for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave
perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain generally low across the U.S.
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Cold mid-level air overspreading the Pacific Coast into
Intermountain West, associated with splitting large-scale mid/upper
troughing, has contributed to weak conditional instability, based on
observed and forecast soundings. Thermodynamic profiles appear to
have become at least potentially marginally conducive to convection
capable of producing lightning in a broad swath, across northern and
central California through the northern Intermountain Region and
Great Basin, as well as across the Pacific Northwest.
Despite this destabilization, to this point, weak thunderstorm
development has been generally negligible. With the onset of
diurnal boundary-layer cooling, this may not change appreciably this
evening into the overnight hours.
However, with the mid-level cold core of one notable short wave
perturbation just now beginning to spread inland of Washington and
adjacent Oregon coastal areas, mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling might still increase sufficiently to support minimum
threshold thunderstorm probabilities tonight.
Across parts of the southern Sierra Nevada into Great Basin, forcing
for ascent associated with a more modest and weakening short wave
perturbation could also still support minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities.
..Kerr.. 01/05/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. Quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains
on D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. Though flow aloft will remain
strong, at the surface gradients will relax as a surface high builds
in. A few pockets of dry/breezy conditions will remain possible
across portions of the central High Plains. Overall, no widespread
fire weather concerns are noted.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D5/Thursday. A surface low is progged to develop across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance differs on exactly how far into the
Plains this moisture reaches, and as such, how much precipitation
will occur with the developing low. The trend over the last 36-48
hours is wetter for D5/Thursday which may aid in improving status of
fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns.
There is some indication that on D6/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D5/Thursday.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. Quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains
on D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. Though flow aloft will remain
strong, at the surface gradients will relax as a surface high builds
in. A few pockets of dry/breezy conditions will remain possible
across portions of the central High Plains. Overall, no widespread
fire weather concerns are noted.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D5/Thursday. A surface low is progged to develop across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance differs on exactly how far into the
Plains this moisture reaches, and as such, how much precipitation
will occur with the developing low. The trend over the last 36-48
hours is wetter for D5/Thursday which may aid in improving status of
fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns.
There is some indication that on D6/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D5/Thursday.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
Fire weather concerns limited/low confidence through the extended
period. Quasi-zonal flow pattern will be in place across the Plains
on D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. Though flow aloft will remain
strong, at the surface gradients will relax as a surface high builds
in. A few pockets of dry/breezy conditions will remain possible
across portions of the central High Plains. Overall, no widespread
fire weather concerns are noted.
The next longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western
US on D5/Thursday. A surface low is progged to develop across the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. As this occurs,
southerly flow will increase with moisture advection into the
western portion of the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi and
Missouri River Valleys. Guidance differs on exactly how far into the
Plains this moisture reaches, and as such, how much precipitation
will occur with the developing low. The trend over the last 36-48
hours is wetter for D5/Thursday which may aid in improving status of
fuels and mitigating any widespread fire weather concerns.
There is some indication that on D6/Friday, strong and dry post
frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the
departing low. This may lead to some overlap of windy/dry conditions
across portions of western and north-central Texas. Confidence is
low in including any areas at this time with potential precipitation
unknown on D5/Thursday.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
The Critical across the Texas Panhandle was extended southward with
this update to account for latest trends in model guidance and fuels
data. Overall, broad Elevated fire weather concerns are still
expected across much of the southern High Plains with Critical
conditions likely in east-central New Mexico into the portions of
the Texas Panhandle region. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten
during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the
Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves
into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains
will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of
elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado,
northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far
southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity
percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits.
The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be
the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution
guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of
stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the
southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will
increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These
winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the
teens will yield a critical fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
The Critical across the Texas Panhandle was extended southward with
this update to account for latest trends in model guidance and fuels
data. Overall, broad Elevated fire weather concerns are still
expected across much of the southern High Plains with Critical
conditions likely in east-central New Mexico into the portions of
the Texas Panhandle region. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten
during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the
Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves
into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains
will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of
elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado,
northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far
southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity
percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits.
The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be
the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution
guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of
stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the
southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will
increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These
winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the
teens will yield a critical fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
The Critical across the Texas Panhandle was extended southward with
this update to account for latest trends in model guidance and fuels
data. Overall, broad Elevated fire weather concerns are still
expected across much of the southern High Plains with Critical
conditions likely in east-central New Mexico into the portions of
the Texas Panhandle region. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will flatten
during the forecast period as a short-wave trough ejects out of the
Rockies and into the central Plains. As this mid-level wave moves
into the Plains, westerly mid-level flow across the Southern Plains
will correspondingly increase. This will result in another day of
elevated fire weather conditions across much of southeast Colorado,
northeast New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, far
southwest Kansas, and western Oklahoma. Here, relative humidity
percentages will fall into the teens to locally high single digits.
The biggest question for critical fire weather conditions will be
the strength of the afternoon surface winds. High-resolution
guidance this evening yields increasing confidence in a belt of
stronger surface winds from far east-central New Mexico into the
southern portions of the Texas Panhandle. Here, afternoon winds will
increase into the 15-20 mph range, with locally higher gusts. These
winds, coupled with minimum relative humidity percentages in the
teens will yield a critical fire weather threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible over parts of the West Coast into the Great Basin,
and over the far southern FL Peninsula through tonight. Weak
buoyancy should preclude any severe risk. See the prior discussion
for more info.
..Lyons.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Discussion...
A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over
the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated
thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a
weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central
California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent
shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential
will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central
California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this
afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period
are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California
coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL
will likely preclude organized severe storm potential.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible over parts of the West Coast into the Great Basin,
and over the far southern FL Peninsula through tonight. Weak
buoyancy should preclude any severe risk. See the prior discussion
for more info.
..Lyons.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Discussion...
A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over
the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated
thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a
weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central
California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent
shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential
will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central
California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this
afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period
are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California
coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL
will likely preclude organized severe storm potential.
Read more
