SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 21:48:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 29 21:48:02 UTC 2025.
SPC MD 2287
MD 2287 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 292014Z - 300015Z SUMMARY...Snow squall conditions are possible as a secondary cold front moves off of Lake Erie. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall and strong wind gusts will lead to reduced visibility with this activity. DISCUSSION...A secondary cold front is moving through the Great Lakes region as a potent upper low continues through southern Ontario/Quebec. A coherent band structure has develop as the front has approached Lake Erie. This band is expected to move onshore and progress into Ohio/Pennsylvania/New York. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall may occur with this activity. Strong cold advection has led to steep enough lapse rates in the boundary layer which could could contribute to enhanced wind gust potential above what has already been ongoing synoptically this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41298236 41718165 42188006 42687873 42967772 42917753 42647716 41967761 41427913 41068061 40868134 40878175 41068217 41298236 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 2287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 292014Z - 300015Z SUMMARY...Snow squall conditions are possible as a secondary cold front moves off of Lake Erie. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall and strong wind gusts will lead to reduced visibility with this activity. DISCUSSION...A secondary cold front is moving through the Great Lakes region as a potent upper low continues through southern Ontario/Quebec. A coherent band structure has develop as the front has approached Lake Erie. This band is expected to move onshore and progress into Ohio/Pennsylvania/New York. Moderate to briefly heavy snowfall may occur with this activity. Strong cold advection has led to steep enough lapse rates in the boundary layer which could could contribute to enhanced wind gust potential above what has already been ongoing synoptically this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41298236 41718165 42188006 42687873 42967772 42917753 42647716 41967761 41427913 41068061 40868134 40878175 41068217 41298236 Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday. ...Southeast... Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day 3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook. Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day 3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day 4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall, including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida). ...Southern/Central Plains... Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday. ...Southeast... Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day 3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook. Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day 3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day 4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall, including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida). ...Southern/Central Plains... Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday. ...Southeast... Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day 3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook. Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day 3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day 4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall, including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida). ...Southern/Central Plains... Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Upper-level ridging will be over the West with upper-level troughing over the East for much of this week before more quasi zonal flow is likely to develop across the CONUS. A weaker closed low is likely to move into southern California mid to late this week then weaken as it traverses through the base of the upper-level ridging across the Southwest. Dry conditions will persist across much of the Southeast through Day 4/Thursday before moisture returns from the Gulf and increases chances of rain across the region Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday. Weak downslope flow is likely on portions of the central High Plains mid to late this week before a cold front slides south down the Plains late Day 4/Thursday into Day 6/Saturday. ...Southeast... Elevated conditions remain likely in portions of the Southeast Day 3/Wednesday, but the 40% area was reduced from yesterday's outlook. Breezy westerly winds will overlap a dry post-frontal airmass from southern Georgia/vicinity through the Carolinas, and RH will be below elevated criteria across much of the Southeast/Gulf Coast Day 3/Wednesday. However, weaker flow will limit areas reaching elevated/locally critical criteria across the broader Southeast region. Locally elevated conditions are possible again Day 4/Thursday from eastern Alabama into South Carolina and north Florida. While rain is likely across much of the Southeast Day 5/Friday - Day 6/Saturday, most areas will not see heavy rainfall, including some areas seeing little to none (e.g., south Florida). ...Southern/Central Plains... Dry/breezy conditions are possible Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday on portions of the southern/central High Plains in a modest downslope flow regime. Additionally, drier and potentially breezy return flow may reach locally elevated thresholds in portions of Texas during these days before a cold front pushes south down the Plains. No precipitation is expected into the weekend for the southern/central Plains, the rest of Texas, and into the western Lower Mississippi Valley. These dry conditions will further cure fuels regardless if they meet elevated/critical criteria. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast in the U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area in the Southeast based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. With both Elevated areas, there is some concern that it may be more locally elevated winds/RH, but both areas were maintained given the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly mid-level flow regime will prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday), with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow and encourage the continued southward shunting of surface high pressure. Offshore flow within a post-cold-frontal regime will encourage 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH along portions of the Carolinas, southward to the Florida Peninsula, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface flow pivoting around a surface high will support 15 mph sustained winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH atop dry fuels over parts of the southern Plains, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast. With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast. With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast. With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Southern CA... An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning. A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast. With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through the period. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through the period. ..Dean.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough/low with an intense mid-level jet will continue advancing east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the eastern CONUS today. A related strong surface cold front will also move east-southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf through the period. With negligible instability forecast over land ahead of the front, thunderstorm probabilities still appear less than 10%. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Dec 29 16:05:02 UTC 2025
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 29 16:05:02 UTC 2025.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Minor modifications were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Light showers along the cold front are moving towards the coast from the Piedmont, but dry and windy conditions are filtering in behind the front. Combining and expanding the Elevated areas was considered, but recent and expected precipitation today precluded this change. However, locally elevated conditions are possible from south/east Texas through south Alabama in a dry, breezy post-frontal airmass. ..Nauslar.. 12/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will continue to deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic, supporting a deep northwesterly flow regime across the central U.S. as a surface cold front surges offshore today. The post cold-frontal regime across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas will promote 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds amid 25-25 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in some spots). Elevated highlights are warranted given dry fuels that have not experienced rainfall in 1-2 weeks. Similarly, dry north-northwesterly surface flow will prevail over the Plains given the aforementioned deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Wind speeds will be weaker compared to previous days, with cooler temperatures also expected. Nonetheless, widespread 15+ mph sustained north-northwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH and drying fuels necessitates Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC MD 2286
MD 2286 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan and far northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 290932Z - 291530Z SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour and periods of blizzard conditions are expected through the morning hours. DISCUSSION...To the west/northwest of a very deep low pressure system (983 mb surface low over Lake Huron), substantial deep-layer lift is overspreading a cold, deeply saturated profile over Upper MI and vicinity. The combination of this lift through a deep/saturated DGZ and isothermal layer below will promote efficient crystal growth and aggregation. As as result, widespread and prolonged heavy snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour are expected, with even higher rates to around 2 inches per hour over the higher terrain and beneath the core of more organized banding. In addition to these substantial and prolonged rates, a very tight pressure gradient peripheral to the deep surface low and strong low-level jet (50-60-kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL per MQT VWP) will promote 40-50 mph gusts and intermittent blizzard conditions in conjunction with the heavy snowfall rates. ..Weinman.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842 46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507 46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 2286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan and far northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 290932Z - 291530Z SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour and periods of blizzard conditions are expected through the morning hours. DISCUSSION...To the west/northwest of a very deep low pressure system (983 mb surface low over Lake Huron), substantial deep-layer lift is overspreading a cold, deeply saturated profile over Upper MI and vicinity. The combination of this lift through a deep/saturated DGZ and isothermal layer below will promote efficient crystal growth and aggregation. As as result, widespread and prolonged heavy snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour are expected, with even higher rates to around 2 inches per hour over the higher terrain and beneath the core of more organized banding. In addition to these substantial and prolonged rates, a very tight pressure gradient peripheral to the deep surface low and strong low-level jet (50-60-kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL per MQT VWP) will promote 40-50 mph gusts and intermittent blizzard conditions in conjunction with the heavy snowfall rates. ..Weinman.. 12/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842 46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507 46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
SPC Dec 29, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a trough over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. whereas a split-flow pattern prevails over the West. A cold front will continue south through much of the Gulf of America and move east of the Eastern Seaboard during the period. High pressure centered over the south-central states will lead to cool/stable conditions over much of the Lower 48. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/29/2025 Read more
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