Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... No changes are needed with the 20z Day 1 Update. Thunderstorm activity is not expected through tonight/early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday). However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear, organized severe potential appears low. ..Dean.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas... Lee surface trough development across the central High Plains will initiate a swath of modest southwest flow of up to 15 mph across eastern TX to the lower MO River Valley. Temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s to near 60 across western OK/northwestern TX under clear skies. Although winds be marginal in terms of speed, current surface dewpoints in the low teens to below 10F in some areas in western OK (supporting 15-25% afternoon RH), longer term rainfall deficits amid expanding drought, along with dry fuels and above normal fuel loading across this region will enhance fire danger this afternoon. Only minor changes to the current Elevated highlights were needed. ...Southeast and Florida... An elevated fire weather threat remains across the Southeast and FL amid a dry, post frontal regime. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph aligned with minimum relative humidity in the 25-35% range should allow for several hours of elevated fire weather conditions primarily across GA and FL through the afternoon. Warmer temperatures in the 60s across southern FL could support relative humidity closer to 20% this afternoon with dry, parallel peninsular flow in place. Thus, elevated highlights were maintained across the Southeast and FL today. ..Williams.. 12/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With cool/stable conditions prevalent behind a cold front across a large portion of the CONUS, thunderstorms are not forecast today. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. The absence of appreciable instability across the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/30/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition, with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate negligible severe potential. Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through Thursday evening. ..Grams.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A pronounced embedded impulse, and accompanying 500 mb jet streak, will pivot southeast along the backside of the near-stationary East Coast upper trough, supporting continued dry offshore flow across the Southeast tomorrow (Wednesday). By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip below 30 percent over several areas, from the Carolinas to Florida. Surface wind fields will not be overly intense, with sustained northwesterly surface winds expected to be around 10 mph (perhaps 15 mph locally) across the Southeast. However, low-end Elevated highlights have been introduced given the dry low-level conditions amid curing fuels, which should support at least localized wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will prevail along the East Coast, with broad northwesterly flow aloft expected to overspread much of the central U.S. today. Embedded mid-level impulses pivoting around the upper trough will encourage multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River, with lee troughing expected across the High Plains. Modest downslope flow along the central and southern High Plains will promote low-end Elevated conditions across western Oklahoma into northwestern Texas, where localized wildfire spread will be possible given dry fuels. Offshore flow due to the aforementioned surface high pressure surges will continue to support dry, occasionally breezy conditions across portions of the Southeast into the FL Peninsula, where low-end Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New Year's Day along coastal southern California. ...Coastal southern CA... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of coastal southern CA through 12Z Thursday. The compact mid-level cold core might reach the Channel Islands, with generally slight cooling farther east. This may be sufficient for charge separation near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to increase overnight ahead of the trough. Despite modest low-level hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat. ..Grams.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 12/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ..Darrow.. 12/30/2025 Read more