SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of
the Central and Northern Valleys.
...Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the
Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area
over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells
around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To
the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to
approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding
shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor
both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells
and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will
maintain the Marginal Risk.
For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.
..Jewell.. 12/26/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
and into tonight across much of the California Coast and portions of
the Central and Northern Valleys.
...Coastal CA into the Central and Northern Valleys...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist this evening from the
Sacramento Valley toward the central coastline, with another area
over southern CA. Areas of heating have led to a few stronger cells
around the Sacramento area, with indications of marginal hail. To
the west, another frontal band of convection will continue to
approach much of the central coastal counties. The 00Z OAK sounding
shows steep lapse rates and strong shear profiles, which may favor
both damaging gusts or embedded areas of rotation as leading cells
and/or the frontal band approach later this evening. As such, will
maintain the Marginal Risk.
For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2272.
..Jewell.. 12/26/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet moving into the Southwest along with lee troughing
across the Central Plains will support dry downslope flow and
potential fire weather concerns across portions of the southern High
Plains Day 3/Saturday. A positively tilted upper trough should move
and deepen into the eastern U.S. through early next week. A
corresponding strong cold front will erode the recent abnormally
warm temperatures across much of the central and eastern CONUS
through Day 6/Tuesday. Dry, post-frontal flow could support an
increased fire weather threat mainly across the Southern Plains
where minimal rainfall is expected. An evolving upper-level ridge
should bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the West
through midweek.
...Day 3/Saturday - Southern High Plains...
Fire weather threat is likely to remain across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent areas owing to persistent westerly flow
aloft and breezy west-southwest winds in response to lee troughing
across the Central Plains. Some uncertainty exists regarding
magnitude of surface drying with additional cloud cover hindering
boundary layer mixing. However, with multiple preceding days of
abnormally warm temperatures and multi-week rainfall deficits, fuels
could remain receptive to spread within the breezy west-southwest
winds despite limited RH reductions. Thus, a 40 percent critical
area remains for the TX/OK Panhandles into southeast CO.
..Days 4-8/Sunday-Thursday...
Primary effective fire weather feature will be a cold front sweeping
across much of the central/eastern CONUS early next week beginning
Day 4/Sunday. Latest model guidance still depicts some inhibiting
factors that could reduce fire weather impacts. Expansive cloud
cover and some precipitation in addition to rapidly falling
temperatures within post frontal flow could limit a more significant
fire weather threat across much of the South and Southeast. Less
expected rainfall across the Southern Plains could support pockets
of drier fuels but uncertainty in rainfall distribution precludes
introduction of critical probabilities for Sunday and Monday.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much
of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were
made with this update.
A few thunderstorms had developed over the Sacramento Valley since
18z, where partial clearing was noted and weak buoyancy (200-300
J/kg) was present. Offshore, an increase in lightning was noted as
the next upstream vorticity maximum moves towards the CA Coast.
Although buoyancy will remain weak, stronger low/mid-level flow will
become re-established later this afternoon/evening and will support
an isolated risk of strong/severe wind gusts with a few
stronger/sustained convective elements, and low-level hodographs
will be sufficiently curved to conditionally support a brief
tornado.
..Bunting.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...California...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the
eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level
jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of
the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco
Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection
today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist
across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface
temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft
(reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater
MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced
west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support
occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently
deep/sustained updraft development.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield
a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk
area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level
flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually
re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough
and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.
A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may
continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the
severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much
of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
...20z Update...
The previous outlook reasoning remains on track, and no changes were
made with this update.
A few thunderstorms had developed over the Sacramento Valley since
18z, where partial clearing was noted and weak buoyancy (200-300
J/kg) was present. Offshore, an increase in lightning was noted as
the next upstream vorticity maximum moves towards the CA Coast.
Although buoyancy will remain weak, stronger low/mid-level flow will
become re-established later this afternoon/evening and will support
an isolated risk of strong/severe wind gusts with a few
stronger/sustained convective elements, and low-level hodographs
will be sufficiently curved to conditionally support a brief
tornado.
..Bunting.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...California...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the
eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level
jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of
the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco
Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection
today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist
across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface
temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft
(reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater
MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced
west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support
occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently
deep/sustained updraft development.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield
a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk
area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level
flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually
re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough
and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.
A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may
continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the
severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Colorado Front Range...
Deep layer westerly flow should support modest downslope winds of
15-20 mph (locally 20-30 mph in favored gaps) across the CO Front
Range Friday. Relative humidity dropping into the 10-15% range, dry
fuels and the breezy west winds should bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area Friday afternoon. However, additional
upper-level cloud cover in the lee of the Rockies could inhibit
boundary layer mixing and wind speeds across flatter terrain to a
degree, confining stronger winds and overall fire weather threat
closer to the Front Range. Elevated highlights were extended
northward to cover this increased fire potential.
...Southern High Plains...
A drier air mass should be in place across the southern High Plains
for Friday, aided by a persistent downslope regime. A surface low
progressing eastward into the Ohio River Valley will result in a
lower surface pressure gradient magnitude across the southern
Plains. Although slightly lower wind speeds are expected overall,
sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph are likely across
the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM. These winds should align
with minimum RH close to 15% and dry fuels to promote an elevated
fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the
Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the
surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to
another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High
Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced
for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph
sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH,
atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack
of rainfall.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Colorado Front Range...
Deep layer westerly flow should support modest downslope winds of
15-20 mph (locally 20-30 mph in favored gaps) across the CO Front
Range Friday. Relative humidity dropping into the 10-15% range, dry
fuels and the breezy west winds should bring an elevated fire
weather threat to the area Friday afternoon. However, additional
upper-level cloud cover in the lee of the Rockies could inhibit
boundary layer mixing and wind speeds across flatter terrain to a
degree, confining stronger winds and overall fire weather threat
closer to the Front Range. Elevated highlights were extended
northward to cover this increased fire potential.
...Southern High Plains...
A drier air mass should be in place across the southern High Plains
for Friday, aided by a persistent downslope regime. A surface low
progressing eastward into the Ohio River Valley will result in a
lower surface pressure gradient magnitude across the southern
Plains. Although slightly lower wind speeds are expected overall,
sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph are likely across
the TX/OK Panhandles and northeastern NM. These winds should align
with minimum RH close to 15% and dry fuels to promote an elevated
fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will gradually shunt eastward from the Plains to the
Midwest on Friday as an upper trough impinges on the Rockies. At the
surface, lee troughing will intensify over the Plains, leading to
another day of at least modestly dry downslope flow along the High
Plains. Similar to Day 1, Elevated highlights have been introduced
for the Texas Panhandle and surrounding areas. Here, 15+ mph
sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 20 percent RH,
atop fuels that continue to cure given dry air and longer term lack
of rainfall.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or
Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad
Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead
shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the
Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other
perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing
low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak
elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from
the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east
northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower
to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated
thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential
appears negligible.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or
Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad
Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead
shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the
Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other
perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing
low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak
elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from
the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east
northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower
to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated
thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential
appears negligible.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.
...Synopsis...
A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across
the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the
West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across
coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West,
as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy
and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and
multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe
potential.
...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic...
A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the
Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface
low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated
destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH,
into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become
increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few
storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500
J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.
...Synopsis...
A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across
the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the
West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across
coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West,
as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy
and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and
multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe
potential.
...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic...
A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the
Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface
low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated
destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH,
into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become
increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few
storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500
J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.
..Lyons.. 12/25/2025
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
Increasing westerly flow aloft entering the central U.S. along with
a deepening lee trough extending southward into the Southern Plains
will promote enhanced downslope winds across the portions of the
central and southern High Plains through this afternoon. Increased
but still diffuse boundary layer moisture ushered in from the
Pacific within deep-layer southwest flow will limit RH reductions to
20-25% across the TX Panhandle and vicinity. However, west-southwest
winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) amid dry fuels and abnormally warm
temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s should still support elevated
fire weather conditions for the area through the afternoon. Only
minor adjustments were made to existing Elevated highlights.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central CONUS as a mid-level
trough over the Interior West de-amplifies, with embedded
perturbations impinging on the Rockies today. This will support the
eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains,
which in turn will lead to dry downslope flow along the lee of the
Rockies. By afternoon widespread 10-15 mph sustained westerly
surface winds will generally coincide with 15-25 percent RH.
Elevated highlights are in place across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, where the best overlap of
15+ mph winds, 15-20 percent RH, and dry fuels should occur.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
Increasing westerly flow aloft entering the central U.S. along with
a deepening lee trough extending southward into the Southern Plains
will promote enhanced downslope winds across the portions of the
central and southern High Plains through this afternoon. Increased
but still diffuse boundary layer moisture ushered in from the
Pacific within deep-layer southwest flow will limit RH reductions to
20-25% across the TX Panhandle and vicinity. However, west-southwest
winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) amid dry fuels and abnormally warm
temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s should still support elevated
fire weather conditions for the area through the afternoon. Only
minor adjustments were made to existing Elevated highlights.
..Williams.. 12/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will prevail over the central CONUS as a mid-level
trough over the Interior West de-amplifies, with embedded
perturbations impinging on the Rockies today. This will support the
eastward progression of a surface low over the northern Plains,
which in turn will lead to dry downslope flow along the lee of the
Rockies. By afternoon widespread 10-15 mph sustained westerly
surface winds will generally coincide with 15-25 percent RH.
Elevated highlights are in place across portions of the Texas
Panhandle and immediate surrounding areas, where the best overlap of
15+ mph winds, 15-20 percent RH, and dry fuels should occur.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much
of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
...California...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the
eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level
jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of
the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco
Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection
today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist
across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface
temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft
(reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater
MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced
west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support
occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently
deep/sustained updraft development.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield
a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk
area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level
flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually
re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough
and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.
A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may
continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the
severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.
..Gleason/Supinie.. 12/25/2025
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts/localized wind damage and perhaps
a brief tornado will be possible today into this evening along much
of the California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
...California...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level low over the
eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR Coast. An upstream mid-level
jet and associated vorticity maximum will move through the base of
the eastern Pacific upper low/trough and approach the San Francisco
Bay and northern CA vicinity this evening.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
isolated severe/damaging winds will remain possible with convection
today into this evening. Weak instability is forecast to persist
across much of coastal CA into the Central Valley, with cool surface
temperatures, saturated profiles, and modest lapse rates aloft
(reference the 12Z OAK sounding) limiting the development of greater
MUCAPE. Still, a favorable kinematic environment with enhanced
west-southwesterly mid/upper-level flow will conditionally support
occasional strong to severe convection, contingent on sufficiently
deep/sustained updraft development.
Low-level hodographs are forecast to remain enlarged enough to yield
a low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk
area. Consensus of latest model guidance indicates low/mid-level
flow will weaken somewhat this afternoon before gradually
re-intensifying this evening as the next embedded shortwave trough
and associated mid-level jet overspread coastal northern/central CA.
A mix of linear bands and cellular convective structures may
continue to pose an intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado into this evening/tonight, before the
severe threat gradually diminishes towards 12Z early Friday morning.
..Gleason/Supinie.. 12/25/2025
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe gusts and localized wind damage, and
perhaps a brief tornado will be possible today along much of the
California Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
... California ...
Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid-level low over
the eastern Pacific and a negative-tilt shortwave trough moving
northward along the northern CA and OR coast. An upstream mid-level
speed max and associated vorticity max will move cyclonically
through the base of the eastern Pacific low/trough and approach San
Francisco Bay and northern CA this evening and subsequently move
into eastern OR by early Friday morning.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms mainly capable of a
severe-wind hazard will potentially continue on an isolated basis
this morning from the Central Valley/central coast and perhaps
include portions of southern CA. The low CAPE/high shear
environment will potentially support strong/locally severe
convection contingent on sufficient updraft development. Forecast
low-level hodographs will remain sufficiently enlarged to yield a
low risk for a brief tornado across much of the Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) area. By this afternoon, model guidance indicates low-level
flow will weaken before re-intensifying towards evening in
association with the arrival of the next speed max. A mix of linear
bands and cellular convective structures may continue to pose an
intermittent risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado into tonight.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/25/2025
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