Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z A strong surface cold front will rapidly move across the Southern Plains on Sunday, ushering in a much dryer and colder airmass. Westerly winds ahead of the front may support locally elevated fire weather conditions during the late morning or early afternoon across the region. In the wake of the front, strong/gusty northerly winds between 20 and 30 mph (with gusts approaching 50 mph) will usher in the aforementioned very dry continental airmass. Although the post-frontal airmass will be colder than the pre-frontal airmass, pockets of sunshine may slow the rate at which temperatures fall during the afternoon. Thus, despite the cooler post-frontal airmass, relative humidity should continue to fall during the afternoon as the dryer air takes hold. Given the ability of the Southern Plains fire environment to overproduce the past few days, especially across portions of the Texas Panhandle, have opted to go ahead and expand the elevated risk area from West Texas north and east into the southeast part of the Texas Panhandle and most of western and central Oklahoma. The expectation is that relative humidity will be lower than currently forecast and the very strong, gusty northerly post-frontal winds will be sufficient to offset the slightly higher relative humidity. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near record warmth with more seasonal temperatures. Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then, temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing fires across the region as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat. ...Discussion... Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification. Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region. ...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley... There remains notable spread within/among the various model output concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying severe weather potential. In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears negligible. Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening. Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the lowest 3 to 6 km. Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat. ...Discussion... Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification. Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region. ...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley... There remains notable spread within/among the various model output concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying severe weather potential. In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears negligible. Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening. Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the lowest 3 to 6 km. Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat. ...Discussion... Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification. Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region. ...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley... There remains notable spread within/among the various model output concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying severe weather potential. In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears negligible. Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening. Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the lowest 3 to 6 km. Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana. Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe threat. ...Discussion... Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification. Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region. ...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley... There remains notable spread within/among the various model output concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying severe weather potential. In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears negligible. Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening. Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the lowest 3 to 6 km. Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast largely remains on track. The only change was to expand the elevated area slightly to the south and east. A weak/diffuse dryline will develop this afternoon to the south of a weak surface low developing across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. To the west of the dryline, modest drying of the low levels associated with gusty downslope flow will support minimum RH in the upper-teens to mid-twenties. This, when coupled with gusty afternoon winds, will support a few hours of elevated to perhaps locally critical fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge. This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity. Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub severe. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front, which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/27/2025 Read more