SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should
gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary
cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The
surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to
near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance
is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front,
which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and
then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is
possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm
probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should
gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary
cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The
surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to
near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance
is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front,
which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and
then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is
possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm
probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.
...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.
Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.
The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.
...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.
Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.
The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.
...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.
Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.
The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.
..Grams.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift
east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the
Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge.
This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft
and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the
central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee
cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry
line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather
conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have
led to dry/receptive fuels.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift
east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the
Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge.
This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft
and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the
central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee
cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry
line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather
conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have
led to dry/receptive fuels.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will gradually shift
east throughout the day, while an upper-level trough enters the
Northern Rockies and impinges on western periphery of the ridge.
This process will promote a tightening of the height gradient aloft
and enhancement of the flow, from the southern High Plains into the
central Great Plains. At the surface, a combination of lee
cyclogenesis and diurnally driven mixing west of a developing dry
line should allow for a few hours of Elevated fire-weather
conditions to develop. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH values
into the low to mid 20s will be possible across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles and vicinity where prolonged arid conditions have
led to dry/receptive fuels.
..Karstens.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today. A few thunderstorms may occur from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri toward Sunday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the
day as a western trough progresses into the Plains late tonight into
Sunday. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the
MS/OH Valleys with low-level warming and moisture advection. Low 60s
F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late. This air mass will
remain capped for most of the period.
After about 06Z tonight, midlevel cooling will be more prominent
into KS/NE/IA, with a zone of elevated instability becoming
uncapped. While effective shear will be strong, instability should
only average at or below 500 J/kg. CAMs suggest storms may develop
after 08Z over northeast KS and move into northern MO through 12Z
Sunday. It appears that any hail risk will be non-severe/small.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/27/2025
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today. A few thunderstorms may occur from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri toward Sunday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the
day as a western trough progresses into the Plains late tonight into
Sunday. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the
MS/OH Valleys with low-level warming and moisture advection. Low 60s
F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late. This air mass will
remain capped for most of the period.
After about 06Z tonight, midlevel cooling will be more prominent
into KS/NE/IA, with a zone of elevated instability becoming
uncapped. While effective shear will be strong, instability should
only average at or below 500 J/kg. CAMs suggest storms may develop
after 08Z over northeast KS and move into northern MO through 12Z
Sunday. It appears that any hail risk will be non-severe/small.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today. A few thunderstorms may occur from eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri toward Sunday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the
day as a western trough progresses into the Plains late tonight into
Sunday. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the
MS/OH Valleys with low-level warming and moisture advection. Low 60s
F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower
MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late. This air mass will
remain capped for most of the period.
After about 06Z tonight, midlevel cooling will be more prominent
into KS/NE/IA, with a zone of elevated instability becoming
uncapped. While effective shear will be strong, instability should
only average at or below 500 J/kg. CAMs suggest storms may develop
after 08Z over northeast KS and move into northern MO through 12Z
Sunday. It appears that any hail risk will be non-severe/small.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/27/2025
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MD 2276 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR UPSTATE NY TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...INCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Areas affected...Upstate NY to eastern Long Island...including parts
of southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 262341Z - 270545Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow bands will spread/develop southeast across
upstate NY toward southern New England over the next few hours. Snow
rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected.
DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing
southeast across western NY/PA early this evening. Latest
water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel vort max southwest of
Syracuse, and this is reflected well in radar data. Multiple heavy
snow bands have developed ahead of this vort max, strongly
influenced by low-level warm advection, extending across upstate NY
into the lower Hudson Valley. Boundary layer moistening supports
this with dew points now rising into the mid teens (F) where snow
rates are increasing. Over the next few hours snow rates are
expected to increase downstream across western CT and Long Island,
largely in response to this well-defined short wave digging toward
the northern Middle Atlantic. Snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr can be
expected prior to the short wave passage.
..Darrow.. 12/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40917449 41497505 42417571 42857574 43277537 43347441
43037362 41847235 41217180 40677192 40367243 40347311
40527380 40917449
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
Scattered showers persist this evening from parts of CA into
northern UT, north of the midlevel jet with cool temperatures aloft.
With the loss of heating and in the absence of significant
large-scale ascent, a steady downward trend is expected through late
evening. Given weak instability coupled with a cooling boundary
layer, severe storms are unlikely.
To the east, a midlevel wave continues to move across the Mid
Atlantic, with scattered low-topped showers from WV across the warm
front into PA. The 00Z PIT sounding shows weak elevated instability
sufficient for a few lightning flashes with the larger batch of
precipitation as it pushes east across the remainder of PA, NJ, MD
and DE.
..Jewell.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Discussion...
Scattered showers persist this evening from parts of CA into
northern UT, north of the midlevel jet with cool temperatures aloft.
With the loss of heating and in the absence of significant
large-scale ascent, a steady downward trend is expected through late
evening. Given weak instability coupled with a cooling boundary
layer, severe storms are unlikely.
To the east, a midlevel wave continues to move across the Mid
Atlantic, with scattered low-topped showers from WV across the warm
front into PA. The 00Z PIT sounding shows weak elevated instability
sufficient for a few lightning flashes with the larger batch of
precipitation as it pushes east across the remainder of PA, NJ, MD
and DE.
..Jewell.. 12/27/2025
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
A longwave mid-level ridge has been in place over the central CONUS
for the last several days. By early D3/Sunday, this feature will
begin to move eastward with a shortwave trough digging across the
northern and central Rockies on the western periphery of the ridge.
This shortwave trough will move eastward through D4/Monday, pushing
a cold front southward across the central and eastern CONUS.
Brief Elevated fire weather conditions may occur across portions of
west Texas and the Permian basin on Sunday with the cold front
passage, however rapidly cooling temperatures and increasing RH
behind the front is expected to inhibit a long-duration risk.
Additional fire weather risk may be present in the post-frontal
regime across central Texas on Monday afternoon. However, several
factors preclude introduction of highlights in this area, including
cool temperatures and uncertainties regarding cloud cover, which
could keep temperatures cooler and RH higher. Additionally, fuels in
the area are not particularly receptive to fire spread, and
precipitation early in the day may reduce susceptibility even
further.
By D5/Tuesday, a longwave trough is expected to become established
over the eastern half of the CONUS and remain there through the end
of the period, promoting surface high pressure and light winds
across the southern Plains. A shortwave trough embedded in the
northwesterly flow may push another cold front southward sometime
around D6/Wednesday or D7/Thursday, and this may carry some fire
risk with it, as well. However, confidence in any particular outcome
is not high enough to warrant highlights at this time.
..Supinie.. 12/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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