SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Discussion...
Low pressure will shift eastward across KS tonight and into western
MO by Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front surging into the central
Plains. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain warmth ahead of
the cold front, with dewpoints to around 60 F spreading northward
toward I-70 late. Increasing lift associated with the front and
approaching upper trough should instigate scattered thunderstorms
over northeast KS and into northern MO, primarily after 09Z.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will
develop, while deep-layer effective shear remains strong. This may
yield a few stronger cells, possibly producing small hail, though
the most likely scenario is for hail to remain below severe levels.
..Jewell.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Discussion...
Low pressure will shift eastward across KS tonight and into western
MO by Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front surging into the central
Plains. Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain warmth ahead of
the cold front, with dewpoints to around 60 F spreading northward
toward I-70 late. Increasing lift associated with the front and
approaching upper trough should instigate scattered thunderstorms
over northeast KS and into northern MO, primarily after 09Z.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will
develop, while deep-layer effective shear remains strong. This may
yield a few stronger cells, possibly producing small hail, though
the most likely scenario is for hail to remain below severe levels.
..Jewell.. 12/28/2025
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
The mid-level ridge across the central United States will finally be
suppressed to the south by the start of this forecast period as a
strong cyclone evolves across the Great Lakes. This strong cyclone
will drive a cold front southward into the Gulf of America and
through the Southeast, ushering in a cold, dry continental airmass
across much of the eastern US. Despite the cooler airmass, elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions may develop across
portions of the Southern Plains on Monday (D3) and Tuesday (D4).
On Monday the dry airmass will be fully entrenched across the Plains
as a strong surface anticyclone takes hold from the Northern Plains
into the Southern Plains. The result will be minimum afternoon
relative humidity will be lower than on Sunday, falling into the
teens and twenty percent range. Winds, however, will be considerably
weaker than on Sunday, with maximum gusts likely in the 10-20 mph
range. The result will be elevated to locally critical fire
conditions for at least a couple of hours during the afternoon.
On Tuesday the center of the surface anticyclone will slide east of
the Plains resulting in winds turning to the west and southwest.
This will set the stage for a potential dry return flow regime
across western Oklahoma. Minimum relative humidity will once again
be in the teens in the presence of potentially gusty afternoon
winds. This may once again result in elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns.
Through the rest of the forecast period, the large-scale pattern
across the CONUS will consist of a northwest flow regime owing to a
western ridge and eastern trough. The northwest flow pattern will
limit appreciable moisture return into the eastern US, such that any
embedded disturbance within the larger-scale flow pattern could
result in elevated fire weather concerns. However, the subtlety of
any of these features is such that the timing of any such feature is
below the scale of predictability at these time ranges.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm
potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of
northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm
potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of
northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm
potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of
northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm
potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of
northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.
In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.
..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.
In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.
..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.
In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.
..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.
In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.
..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
A strong surface cold front will rapidly move across the Southern
Plains on Sunday, ushering in a much dryer and colder airmass.
Westerly winds ahead of the front may support locally elevated fire
weather conditions during the late morning or early afternoon across
the region. In the wake of the front, strong/gusty northerly winds
between 20 and 30 mph (with gusts approaching 50 mph) will usher in
the aforementioned very dry continental airmass.
Although the post-frontal airmass will be colder than the
pre-frontal airmass, pockets of sunshine may slow the rate at which
temperatures fall during the afternoon. Thus, despite the cooler
post-frontal airmass, relative humidity should continue to fall
during the afternoon as the dryer air takes hold.
Given the ability of the Southern Plains fire environment to
overproduce the past few days, especially across portions of the
Texas Panhandle, have opted to go ahead and expand the elevated risk
area from West Texas north and east into the southeast part of the
Texas Panhandle and most of western and central Oklahoma. The
expectation is that relative humidity will be lower than currently
forecast and the very strong, gusty northerly post-frontal winds
will be sufficient to offset the slightly higher relative humidity.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
A strong surface cold front will rapidly move across the Southern
Plains on Sunday, ushering in a much dryer and colder airmass.
Westerly winds ahead of the front may support locally elevated fire
weather conditions during the late morning or early afternoon across
the region. In the wake of the front, strong/gusty northerly winds
between 20 and 30 mph (with gusts approaching 50 mph) will usher in
the aforementioned very dry continental airmass.
Although the post-frontal airmass will be colder than the
pre-frontal airmass, pockets of sunshine may slow the rate at which
temperatures fall during the afternoon. Thus, despite the cooler
post-frontal airmass, relative humidity should continue to fall
during the afternoon as the dryer air takes hold.
Given the ability of the Southern Plains fire environment to
overproduce the past few days, especially across portions of the
Texas Panhandle, have opted to go ahead and expand the elevated risk
area from West Texas north and east into the southeast part of the
Texas Panhandle and most of western and central Oklahoma. The
expectation is that relative humidity will be lower than currently
forecast and the very strong, gusty northerly post-frontal winds
will be sufficient to offset the slightly higher relative humidity.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
A strong surface cold front will rapidly move across the Southern
Plains on Sunday, ushering in a much dryer and colder airmass.
Westerly winds ahead of the front may support locally elevated fire
weather conditions during the late morning or early afternoon across
the region. In the wake of the front, strong/gusty northerly winds
between 20 and 30 mph (with gusts approaching 50 mph) will usher in
the aforementioned very dry continental airmass.
Although the post-frontal airmass will be colder than the
pre-frontal airmass, pockets of sunshine may slow the rate at which
temperatures fall during the afternoon. Thus, despite the cooler
post-frontal airmass, relative humidity should continue to fall
during the afternoon as the dryer air takes hold.
Given the ability of the Southern Plains fire environment to
overproduce the past few days, especially across portions of the
Texas Panhandle, have opted to go ahead and expand the elevated risk
area from West Texas north and east into the southeast part of the
Texas Panhandle and most of western and central Oklahoma. The
expectation is that relative humidity will be lower than currently
forecast and the very strong, gusty northerly post-frontal winds
will be sufficient to offset the slightly higher relative humidity.
..Marsh.. 12/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern High Plains will
shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from the
central Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. In its wake, a cold
front will sweep across much of the central CONUS, replacing near
record warmth with more seasonal temperatures.
Model guidance suggests there could be a window of up to a few hours
supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions associated with the
pre/post cold front passage, mainly across portions of the southern
High Plains. Pre-frontal residual dry air and diurnally driven winds
should be present ahead of the front by early afternoon. Then,
temperatures should remain above the minimum thresholds behind the
front for another 2-3 hours amid gusty northwest winds despite
rising RH values. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been
introduced for a small portion of West Texas and far southeast New
Mexico, confined to areas where fuels appear most receptive. The
frontal passage may at least temporarily exacerbate any ongoing
fires across the region as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
