Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A longwave mid-level ridge has been in place over the central CONUS for the last several days. By early D3/Sunday, this feature will begin to move eastward with a shortwave trough digging across the northern and central Rockies on the western periphery of the ridge. This shortwave trough will move eastward through D4/Monday, pushing a cold front southward across the central and eastern CONUS. Brief Elevated fire weather conditions may occur across portions of west Texas and the Permian basin on Sunday with the cold front passage, however rapidly cooling temperatures and increasing RH behind the front is expected to inhibit a long-duration risk. Additional fire weather risk may be present in the post-frontal regime across central Texas on Monday afternoon. However, several factors preclude introduction of highlights in this area, including cool temperatures and uncertainties regarding cloud cover, which could keep temperatures cooler and RH higher. Additionally, fuels in the area are not particularly receptive to fire spread, and precipitation early in the day may reduce susceptibility even further. By D5/Tuesday, a longwave trough is expected to become established over the eastern half of the CONUS and remain there through the end of the period, promoting surface high pressure and light winds across the southern Plains. A shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow may push another cold front southward sometime around D6/Wednesday or D7/Thursday, and this may carry some fire risk with it, as well. However, confidence in any particular outcome is not high enough to warrant highlights at this time. ..Supinie.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated in the Lower Great Lakes region on account of the shortwave trough progression. The remainder of the forecast remains valid and is unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward across these areas. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated in the Lower Great Lakes region on account of the shortwave trough progression. The remainder of the forecast remains valid and is unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward across these areas. Read more

MD 2274 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Areas affected...Northern Maryland...central to northwest Pennsylvania...and far western New York Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 261613Z - 262115Z SUMMARY...A wintry mix, eventually transitioning to primarily light to moderate freezing rain, will spread southeast through the afternoon into northwest and central Pennsylvania and western New York. DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports and ASOS/AWOS observations are beginning to show areas of light freezing rain and sleet spreading from far northeast OH into northwestern PA and far western NY over the past 1-2 hours. Although regional 12z soundings sampled a stout dry layer from the surface to about 3 km, the recent sleet/freezing rain reports indicate that preceding precipitation has allowed for adequate saturation in the mid/low-levels to allow hydrometeors to reach the surface. Consequently, surface sleet/freezing rain amounts will likely increase through the afternoon as more widespread precipitation (attendant to a mid-level wave currently upstream across southeast MI) overspreads the region. Correlation Coefficient imagery from KPBZ and KCCX are sampling a melting layer between 4-8 kft ARL over central PA, which should be maintained through the afternoon amid increasing warm advection between 925-850 mb. Near the surface, weak thermal advection below 0.5 km should maintain sub-freezing temperatures and support freezing hydrometeors. Although a mix of sleet/freezing rain is expected over the next couple of hours, a transition to primarily freezing rain is anticipated this afternoon as the depth/strength of the warm nose aloft increases. Latest forecast guidance supports this scenario and suggests that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible across central PA into far western NY - especially under heavier precipitation bands and/or where precipitation rates are locally enhanced by weak convective processes. ..Moore.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42397956 42537915 42517885 40907699 40487663 40117667 39707684 39537725 39457795 39547855 39687892 39977920 40187931 40427948 40537956 41428044 41768079 41958070 42148015 42397956 Read more

MD 2275 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Areas affected...Western New York into northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 261822Z - 262215Z SUMMARY...A favorable zone for heavy snow banding is becoming established across parts of western New York into northeast Pennsylvania. Snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will be possible under any band that develops within this region through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Precipitation banding has begun to emerge across portions of NY/PA over the past couple of hours amid strengthening warm air advection between 850-700 mb and increasing, albeit modest, broad-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave. Dry air in the lowest few kilometers has limited precipitation amounts at the surface for most locations thus far; however, automated observations and web cams between Buffalo and Rochester, NY have begun to report moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times under one of the consolidating bands. Concurrently, NY Mesonet observations are depicting steady surface moistening with dewpoints climbing by 1-2 F/hour as low-level profiles saturate under the heavier precipitation bands. While the heaviest snowfall will likely occur later this evening as the upper wave moves over the region, these observed trends suggest that the onset of moderate/heavy snowfall rates is likely beginning. Areas that can maintain residence time under an established snow band may observe snowfall rates as high as 1-2 in/hour as soon as low-level saturation occurs. Favorable overlap of synoptic and mesoscale ascent will continue to promote snow band development within the warm advection branch of the disturbance, which will maintain heavy snowfall potential at least through late afternoon and possibly into the late evening hours. ..Moore.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41207542 42427792 42737817 42997819 43217807 43367793 43467752 43467703 43377656 42097437 41687429 41427455 41177512 41207542 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night from the Southern Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys. ...Mid MS to the OH Valleys... An initially broad and multi-faceted positive-tilt upper trough over the central US is forecast to undergo substantial amplification as it moves eastward toward the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. The corresponding surface low will quickly intensify as it moves eastward from KS/MO across northern IL. A trailing cold front will also strengthen, with low-level moisture transport ahead of the front (50s and 60s F surface dewpoints) aiding in modest destabilization Sunday evening. Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing over the MO valley vicinity early in the period associated with the strong low-level theta-E advection. This convection may remain elevated for much of the day as it tracks along a stalled frontal zone from northern MO/IL vicinity eastward into OH/IN and southern lower MI. Still, some elements may eventually become near-surface based with weak MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) potentially supporting a few stronger gusts near the surface. Additional surface-based storms will likely develop within the moistening warm sector over the northern Ozarks and mid MS valley late Sunday afternoon. A low-topped convective band could organize along the front as it moves east/southeast from the MS/OH Valleys toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the trough and surface low deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt) low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the surging cold front. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible as the line moves quickly eastward over the Mid MS and eventually the OH Valley Sunday night. ..Lyons.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night from the Southern Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys. ...Mid MS to the OH Valleys... An initially broad and multi-faceted positive-tilt upper trough over the central US is forecast to undergo substantial amplification as it moves eastward toward the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. The corresponding surface low will quickly intensify as it moves eastward from KS/MO across northern IL. A trailing cold front will also strengthen, with low-level moisture transport ahead of the front (50s and 60s F surface dewpoints) aiding in modest destabilization Sunday evening. Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing over the MO valley vicinity early in the period associated with the strong low-level theta-E advection. This convection may remain elevated for much of the day as it tracks along a stalled frontal zone from northern MO/IL vicinity eastward into OH/IN and southern lower MI. Still, some elements may eventually become near-surface based with weak MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) potentially supporting a few stronger gusts near the surface. Additional surface-based storms will likely develop within the moistening warm sector over the northern Ozarks and mid MS valley late Sunday afternoon. A low-topped convective band could organize along the front as it moves east/southeast from the MS/OH Valleys toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the trough and surface low deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt) low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the surging cold front. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible as the line moves quickly eastward over the Mid MS and eventually the OH Valley Sunday night. ..Lyons.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Some dry, downslope westerly winds are possible across portions of northeastern Colorado during the day on Saturday ahead of a surface cold front. Given the receptive fuels in the area, this may lead to some brief Elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon. However, uncertainty on the degree to which mid- and upper-level cloud cover will impact mixing, and therefore the RH and wind strength, preclude adding any highlights at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to the Elevated highlights over the Texas Panhandle. ..Supinie.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place along with an embedded speed max across the central/southern Plains. The combination of lee troughing and mixing should allow for sustained winds of 15-20 mph to develop during the afternoon across the OK/TX Panhandles and vicinity. Despite somewhat marginal RH values, perhaps approaching the low to mid 20s, persistent dry conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels, which will promote a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Some dry, downslope westerly winds are possible across portions of northeastern Colorado during the day on Saturday ahead of a surface cold front. Given the receptive fuels in the area, this may lead to some brief Elevated fire weather risk during the afternoon. However, uncertainty on the degree to which mid- and upper-level cloud cover will impact mixing, and therefore the RH and wind strength, preclude adding any highlights at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to the Elevated highlights over the Texas Panhandle. ..Supinie.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place along with an embedded speed max across the central/southern Plains. The combination of lee troughing and mixing should allow for sustained winds of 15-20 mph to develop during the afternoon across the OK/TX Panhandles and vicinity. Despite somewhat marginal RH values, perhaps approaching the low to mid 20s, persistent dry conditions have led to dry/receptive fuels, which will promote a few hours of Elevated fire-weather conditions for this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3). ..Lyons.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3). ..Lyons.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains. Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15 mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally, downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 12/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains. Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15 mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally, downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward across these areas. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward across these areas. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025 Read more

MD 2273 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 261040Z - 261645Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity and coverage while spreading eastward across parts of central and southern Lower Michigan during the 12-16Z time frame. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data shows a swath of mixed precipitation spreading eastward into Lower MI -- where surface pressure is falling rapidly (-4 to -5 mb in the last two hours over west-central Lower MI). This activity is focused ahead of an eastward-advancing shortwave trough and within a broad zone of low-level warm advection. As the trough continues eastward this morning and gains some amplitude, deep-layer forcing for ascent will strengthen while focusing over Lower MI. As a result, precipitation will increase in both intensity and coverage as the low/mid-levels saturate amid the strengthening ascent. Additionally, steepening midlevel lapse rates should yield weak elevated buoyancy and a potential convective enhancement to precipitation rates. As low-level warm advection strengthens, a substantial warm nose centered around 850 mb will favor complete melting of descending hydrometeors before re-freezing at the surface. The strong lift (with potential convective enhancement) and aforementioned thermal profile will contribute to freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 inches per hour (locally higher under the more robust convectively enhanced cores). The onset of the heavier rates is expected between 12-16Z, but should persist beyond that period while spreading eastward across southeastern Lower MI. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 42448488 42888549 43378619 43738637 43958622 44168555 44138477 43868383 43478256 43038230 42188279 41918342 42018398 42448488 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the Pacific Northwest coast and eastern Pacific. This positive-tilt trough will shift eastward to the northern Rockies and Sierra Nevada by early Saturday morning. Concurrently, a flattened mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will move into the MS Valley. Plume of subtropical moisture over the eastern Pacific will continue to advect northeast into portions of the Interior West. Showers and widely spaced, occasional thunderstorms are likely today across CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Scant instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development with this activity. Farther east, a few thunderstorms are possible from the Great Lakes east-southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic states in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move east today. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the Pacific Northwest coast and eastern Pacific. This positive-tilt trough will shift eastward to the northern Rockies and Sierra Nevada by early Saturday morning. Concurrently, a flattened mid to upper-level ridge over the Great Plains will move into the MS Valley. Plume of subtropical moisture over the eastern Pacific will continue to advect northeast into portions of the Interior West. Showers and widely spaced, occasional thunderstorms are likely today across CA into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Scant instability will likely preclude strong thunderstorm development with this activity. Farther east, a few thunderstorms are possible from the Great Lakes east-southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic states in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough forecast to move east today. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent. The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential. Read more

MD 2272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 Areas affected...Northern/Central California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260011Z - 260215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a midlevel vort lobe is located about 125mi southwest of EKA, lifting northeast toward the northern CA coast. Radar data supports this with an arcing band of convection, and embedded lightning, extending from the north side of this vort, arcing southeast to about 100mi west of MRY. Strong midlevel jet will translate inland over the next several hours in association with this band of convection. While buoyancy is not particularly strong, SBCAPE is on the order of 200-300 J/kg, and wind profiles favor organized updrafts. Current thinking is gusty winds may accompany this strongly forced band of convection as it surges inland this evening; however, current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. ..Darrow/Hart.. 12/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...EKA... LAT...LON 35302183 40082465 40302316 35812044 35302183 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more