Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Surface high pressure across the Intermountain West will continue to promote dry, offshore flow across southern CA today. Farther east, dry and relative mild conditions under a building ridge aloft will encompass much of the lower CO River Basin and southern High Plains although winds will remain light. Fuels across CONUS are largely not conducive for significant wildfire spread, mitigating impacts from locally dry/breezy conditions. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Surface high pressure across the Intermountain West will continue to promote dry, offshore flow across southern CA today. Farther east, dry and relative mild conditions under a building ridge aloft will encompass much of the lower CO River Basin and southern High Plains although winds will remain light. Fuels across CONUS are largely not conducive for significant wildfire spread, mitigating impacts from locally dry/breezy conditions. ..Williams.. 12/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Much of the central US and Plains states will be under the influence of post frontal cool continental air mass. Surface high pressure across the central US will begin to shift eastward as a trough departs the northeast. Some lingering dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Texas Permian basin. Marginal relative humidity and lack of receptive fuels will keep fire spread concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates, should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates, should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period. It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity. Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion. A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion. A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion. A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies. One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant surface cold intrusion. A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north. However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit inland moistening. ..Kerr.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...South FL... With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front progresses into the FL Straits. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...South FL... With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front progresses into the FL Straits. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...South FL... With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front progresses into the FL Straits. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...South FL... With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front progresses into the FL Straits. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025 Read more