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Storm Prediction Center

SPC MD 563

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0563 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154... FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...Northwest Missouri and extreme northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154... Valid 270824Z - 271000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Earlier supercells are growing into more of a north-south oriented MCS, with some increase in wind damage potential. A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed into northern Missouri. DISCUSSION...More discrete supercells earlier in KS have begun to merge and orient into more of a north-south line with a more pronounced cold pool. The updrafts of these storms are still rooted well above the surface, but steep midlevel lapse rates will allow downdrafts to penetrate to the ground with an accompanying threat for 65+ mph gusts (especially on right flanks of embedded circulations). Since some supercell structures will likely remain within the line, large hail can still be expected. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon into northwest and northern MO. ..Thompson.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39089251 38779276 38559335 38529437 38729504 38959507 39399477 39669438 39839409 39979363 39979285 39789245 39089251 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0157 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0157 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0157 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0157 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States. It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States. It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States. It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that the prevailing split flow will evolve in a manner that maintains a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. Within the northern branch, it appears that a fairly significant low will form within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast by early next weekend, perhaps trailed by another developing low across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by early next week. At the same time, an initially prominent subtropical high centered over southern Mexico is forecast to become suppressed, as a mid/upper low emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forced eastward into and through the confluent regime across the southern tier of the United States. It still appears that the shearing subtropical impulse, and perhaps a trailing perturbation, will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. The frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass is generally forecast to progress into the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, where it is likely to linger through early next week. While forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week (mostly above/to the cool side of the stalling frontal zone) into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather still appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0156 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0156 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ICT TO 20 NNE RSL TO 50 N RSL TO 30 S FNB TO 25 NNE STJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562 ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-105- 107-111-115-121-123-127-139-141-143-149-161-169-177-197-209- 270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MITCHELL MORRIS OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC013-021-033-037-047-049-063-083-095-101-107-159-165-177-195- 270840- MO Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ICT TO 20 NNE RSL TO 50 N RSL TO 30 S FNB TO 25 NNE STJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562 ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-105- 107-111-115-121-123-127-139-141-143-149-161-169-177-197-209- 270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MITCHELL MORRIS OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC013-021-033-037-047-049-063-083-095-101-107-159-165-177-195- 270840- MO Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ICT TO 20 NNE RSL TO 50 N RSL TO 30 S FNB TO 25 NNE STJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562 ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 154 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-105- 107-111-115-121-123-127-139-141-143-149-161-169-177-197-209- 270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MITCHELL MORRIS OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC013-021-033-037-047-049-063-083-095-101-107-159-165-177-195- 270840- MO Read more

SPC MD 562

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0562 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154... FOR I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...I-70 corridor from northern Kansas into northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154... Valid 270639Z - 270815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Elevated supercells will continue to pose a large hail and isolated damaging wind threat while spreading eastward along the I-70 corridor. DISCUSSION...Clusters of elevated supercells, with a recent history of hail up to 2 inches in diameter, continue to spread eastward along the I-70 corridor in north central and northeast KS. This area is within the left-exit region of a 100 kt jet at 300 mb, and along the north edge of the steep midlevel lapse rates where strong low-level warm advection is ongoing. The updrafts appear to be rooted near 850 mb with MUCAPE near 3000 J/kg. The combination of large buoyancy and strong cloud-layer/effective shear will continue to favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (near or above 2 inches in diameter). These storms will also be capable of producing isolated wind damage given the steep midlevel lapse rates and moderately large DCAPE. ..Thompson.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38479671 38539751 38689810 39109816 39419777 39559634 39529510 39409430 39159400 38559428 38479671 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior to 12Z Thursday. A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region. The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/27/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior to 12Z Thursday. A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region. The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/27/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior to 12Z Thursday. A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region. The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/27/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms could impact parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as portions of the northwestern through north central Gulf Coast, Wednesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level ridging will continue to build inland across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period, but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas, but models vary concerning whether this will accelerate inland prior to 12Z Thursday. A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression, but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin to form near/north of the Great Lakes region. The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest that a modest surface low evolving along this front will migrate from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening. ...Gulf Coast vicinity... It remains uncertain the extent to which pre-frontal convective outflow may impact subsequent destabilization across the north central Gulf Coast region, and perhaps beneath the stronger mid-level ridging into the Texas coastal plain and Rio Grande Valley. However, guidance suggests that a seasonably moist boundary-layer may contribute to moderately large CAPE with sufficient insolation, beneath at least modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow. This environment might become conducive to at least widely scattered storms with potential to produce severe hail and wind. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilties could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... The influence of potentially widespread remnant early period convective precipitation on subsequent destabilization through the day Wednesday remain unclear. However, as a fairly significant short wave perturbation overspreads the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening, the cold front approaching the Allegheny Mountains, surface troughing and the developing low/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge could become the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm with sufficient destabilization in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. It is still possible that categorical and severe probabilities could be increased further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/27/2026 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 155 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO TO 35 NNE ICT. ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 155 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO TO 35 NNE ICT. ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 155 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO TO 35 NNE ICT. ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 155 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BVO TO 35 NNE ICT. ..THOMPSON..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 155 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
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Storm Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
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