Storm Prediction Center

MD 0584 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 160...162... FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...Southern and southeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 160...162... Valid 280110Z - 280315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 160, 162 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado potential appears to be increasing across south-central to southeast Missouri as a trio of supercells migrate into a strongly sheared environment. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery has show steady intensification of a trio of supercells across southern MO over the past 30 minutes as convection begins to migrate into an axis of very high (3000-4000 J/kg) MLCAPE. Although regional radars are primarily sampling the mid-levels of the storms, organizing/intensifying mesocyclones have also been noted. While it remains somewhat unclear whether or not these cells have become surface based (a weak outflow boundary was noted earlier upstream closer to KSGF), these observations point towards steady intensification. Downstream, regional VWPs are sampling ample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 350 m2/s2. The combination of strong low-level shear and very high buoyancy is supporting a plume of STP values between 4-6 downstream into southeast MO. The approaching cells will have long residence time within this environment, which should continue to favor intensification and an increasing tornado threat - including the potential for significant tornadoes - if cells currently are, or can soon become, rooted near the surface. ..Moore.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36629243 37179158 37409129 37529095 37578939 37438908 37228898 36908900 36668902 36358921 36168949 36339212 36409235 36459245 36629243 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms should continue through tonight with a wind and hail threat. A few tornadoes may still occur, and a couple of strong tornadoes remain possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted 500 mb mid-level trough continues to traverse the Upper Midwest in tandem with a surface low, supporting a surface cold front to sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A persistent elongated convective system has materialized along the cold front, accompanied by several embedded and preceding supercells. These storms have a collective history of severe wind and hail, with some stones reaching the 2-3 inch diameter range. Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, resides ahead of the cold front/storms, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Meanwhile, strong mid-level flow associated with a speed max is overspreading an intensifying (45+ kt) southwesterly low-level jet, resulting in 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and large/curved low-level hodographs with 300-500 m2/s2 effective SRH (per 00Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). Supercells have failed to organize and produce tornadoes up to this point. However, storms along/ahead of the cold front will continue to advance eastward toward the low-level jet/shear axis. Therefore, an uptick in tornado activity may still occur early tonight, especially with any discrete, sustained supercells that can develop. Discrete storms may also be accompanied by severe hail, with severe wind gusts likely with continued linear storm modes. ..Squitieri.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms should continue through tonight with a wind and hail threat. A few tornadoes may still occur, and a couple of strong tornadoes remain possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted 500 mb mid-level trough continues to traverse the Upper Midwest in tandem with a surface low, supporting a surface cold front to sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A persistent elongated convective system has materialized along the cold front, accompanied by several embedded and preceding supercells. These storms have a collective history of severe wind and hail, with some stones reaching the 2-3 inch diameter range. Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, resides ahead of the cold front/storms, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Meanwhile, strong mid-level flow associated with a speed max is overspreading an intensifying (45+ kt) southwesterly low-level jet, resulting in 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and large/curved low-level hodographs with 300-500 m2/s2 effective SRH (per 00Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). Supercells have failed to organize and produce tornadoes up to this point. However, storms along/ahead of the cold front will continue to advance eastward toward the low-level jet/shear axis. Therefore, an uptick in tornado activity may still occur early tonight, especially with any discrete, sustained supercells that can develop. Discrete storms may also be accompanied by severe hail, with severe wind gusts likely with continued linear storm modes. ..Squitieri.. 04/28/2026 Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPI TO 15 WNW DEC TO 25 E BMI. ..LEITMAN..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-115-139-147- 159-173-183-280140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPI TO 15 WNW DEC TO 25 E BMI. ..LEITMAN..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-115-139-147- 159-173-183-280140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 163 TORNADO IL 272140Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A remnant boundary left over by overnight/early morning storms will be an initial focus for intense storm development including supercells, with additional storms developing later afternoon across broader parts of the region. All severe weather hazards all possible, including strong/intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Springfield IL to 25 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE UMN TO 20 SSW TBN TO 20 NW TBN TO 30 NNW ALN. ..LEITMAN..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-025-027-033-049-051-079-083-101-117-119-121-133-135- 157-159-163-189-280040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC043-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-123-125-149-153-161-169- 179-183-186-187-189-203-213-215-219-221-229-510-280040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON MADISON MARIES OREGON Read more

WW 160 TORNADO IL MO 271750Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Eastern and Southern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A remnant boundary left over by overnight/early morning storms will be an initial focus for intense storm development including supercells, with additional storms developing later afternoon across broader parts of the region. All severe weather hazards all possible, including strong/intense tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Springfield MO to 45 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N FYV TO 30 ESE SGF. ..LEITMAN..04/27/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-280040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MOC009-209-280040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY STONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 271910Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Western Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms should further develop across the region within a very unstable environment in the presence of strong deep-layer winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 45 miles north northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0162 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 162 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO TN 271945Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell development is expected to occur through late afternoon, with a multi-round of severe storms expected to occur across much of the region through this evening. As deep-layer/low-level winds continue to strengthen, this includes the potential for tornadoes, such of which are likely to be strong/intense (EF2+/EF3+). Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 10 miles east of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 158...WW 159...WW 160...WW 161... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 164 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 272355Z - 280700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northwest and Far Southwest Arkansas Southeast/East-Central Oklahoma North and Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 655 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this evening and tonight. Environmental conditions favor strong to severe thunderstorms, with a primary risk for very large hail. Some strong downdrafts are possible as well. The tornado risk is low, given the modest low-level flow, but the expected supercell mode suggests a low-probability risk still exists. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Tyler TX to 65 miles north of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...WW 163... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0576 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...parts of northeast IA into far southeast MN and southwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272159Z - 272330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected to develop east/northeast through the late afternoon and evening hours. The strong storms may produce marginal hail and locally gusty winds. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface cold front and near the surface low across southeast MN into northeast IA. A modestly unstable (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) airmass resides downstream where upper 50s dewpoints and temperatures generally in the 60s are noted. Forecast soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis indicates midlevel lapse rates are generally weak across MN and western WI, with some improvement with southward extent into eastern IA. This thermodynamic environment could sustain a few stronger storms within a modestly sheared environment. The stronger storms will pose a risk for hail generally in the 0.50-1.00 inch range, along with locally gusty winds. Overall severe threat appears limited by the modest thermodynamic environment and a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42789236 43549254 43789264 44099240 44439159 44609044 44589006 44498968 44148921 43738903 43208915 42768945 42279072 42079119 42019171 42069202 42169217 42659234 42789236 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0577 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...central to northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272208Z - 280015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Attempts at convective initiation have been recently noted within a volatile convective environment. While confidence in storm coverage is limited, thunderstorms that can become established will likely pose a threat for severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a band of agitated cumulus along a weak trough axis from the DFW area southward to the northwest of Austin, TX. At least one deeper convective tower with occasional lightning strikes is noted across central TX. Very weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on whether or not this attempt at sustained convection will succeed or whether additional attempts will be made through early evening. However, latest high-res guidance continues to suggest at least a few discrete cells could develop and migrate eastward across eastern and northeast TX through late evening. If sustained convection can occur, the downstream environment will be favorable for the development of robust supercells capable of producing large (to perhaps very large) hail and severe gusts. Some tornado threat may also emerge across northeast TX where low-level wind shear is slightly stronger (around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per the KSHV VWP and recent mesoanalysis estimates). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance may be needed if sustained deep convection becomes increasingly likely. ..Moore/Mosier.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30849873 31179883 31559864 33229644 33459606 33519569 33499527 33259490 32869466 32439453 32089454 31699468 31439496 31129577 30809665 30589732 30499786 30549826 30649850 30849873 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0578 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159... FOR SOUTHERN IN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0578 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...southern IN into north-central KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159... Valid 272226Z - 280030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may persist for a few hours late this afternoon/early this evening, posing mainly a risk for hail and gusty winds. However, the severe risk may increase again later tonight. DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing across southern IN along outflow north of the Ohio River. Training convection and cloud cover extending southward in central KY is limiting instability and resulting in at least weak inhibition. Some lingering risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds is expected over the next few hours. Later this evening into tonight, airmass recovery is expected as stronger warm advection overspreads the lower OH Valley and a cold front approaching the Mid-MS Valley advances eastward. A relative lull in severe potential may develop in the short term due to convective contamination. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159 could be locally extended to cover the short term marginal severe potential. However, increasing severe potential will likely have to be addressed later this evening across portions of the region. ..Leitman.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 39018496 38298486 37758538 37478628 37698668 38328706 38848719 39188698 39398649 39298538 39018496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0579 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 162... FOR SOUTHERN IL...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...EASTERN KY...NORTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 Areas affected...southern IL...far southeast MO...eastern KY...northwest TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 162... Valid 272318Z - 280045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of WW 162. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts remain possible. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and a few towering cumulus are noted in GOES-16 DCP imagery recently. A couple of towers now have lightning occurring over far southern IL. This activity is occurring within an axis of strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The VWP from KPAH also shows wind profiles favorable for supercells with strong tornado potential, indicated by enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2. Additional strengthening of the nocturnal low-level jet is expected over the next couple of hours. In tandem, forcing for ascent should increase across portions of WW 162. This may support additional supercell development/strengthening of current convective attempts in the short term. Any storms the develop could strengthen and organize quickly, posing a risk for very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 38268886 38208830 38038792 37768768 36968762 35868811 35238829 35038869 35008966 35059057 35189086 35749078 36219050 37259002 37698973 38128958 38268886 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more