Storm Prediction Center

MD 0595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...North Texas and far south Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281707Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected to become increasingly likely this afternoon with the potential for very large hail and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places a surface low over northwest TX with an attendant outflow boundary (remnant from early-day storms) stretching east across north TX, to the north of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. A dryline was becoming better defined from the vicinity of the surface low south-southwest through the TX Big Country into eastern Permian Basin into Concho Valley. Latest trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a developing cumulus field in the vicinity of the surface triple point where objective analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to as high as 3500-4000 J/kg with decreasing cap strength. Short-term model guidance is in reasonably good agreement in depicting the development of one or multiple supercells from the vicinity of the triple point east along the outflow boundary by as early as 19z. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and the presence of a strong mid/upper-level wind field across the southern Plains today, the setup appears favorable for long-lived storms capable of very large hail (upwards of 3-4" in diameter) as the primary hazard. Modest low-level shear currently being sampled by the KFWS VWP and evident in plan-view objective fields may tend to limit the overall tornado potential. However, given that expected storm motions for a right-moving supercell is generally along the orientation of the outflow boundary, the potential for a few tornadoes appears to be greatest with any storms that can favorably interact with that boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33019942 33339956 33939917 34119860 34109699 33929609 33099603 32909617 32829677 32899854 33019942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells including very large hail potential along with some damaging wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer warming. Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this same region late today, or more so tonight. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Southwest and Southern Plains... Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights have been trimmed. ...Upstate New York and much of Vermont... South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower, currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20% expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in place across the region. ..Williams.. 04/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western VT amid a very dry airmass. ...Southern Plains... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires. More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. ...Upstate New York and Western Vermont... As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across upstate NY and western VT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-099- 103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-139-145-147-149- 281740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 170 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 281545Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1045 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should quickly destabilize as cloud-clearing occurs in the presence of a moist environment. Large hail will be the most common concern initially, but damaging wind and tornado potential are expected to steadily increase through the afternoon regionally. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Paris TX to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 169 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-023-049-063-065-067-075-087-089-101-121-129- 135-137-141-143-281740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION NEWTON RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC009-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-097-105-109-119-145-149-153- 161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-281740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OREGON OZARK Read more

WW 169 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 281515Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1015 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms will continue to expand/increase east-northeastward into this afternoon. Large hail will be the main risk initially today, but surfaced-based storms, including damaging wind potential, may increase later this afternoon, especially across the Ozarks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muskogee OK to 25 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into central and southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 281433Z - 281630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning with all severe-weather hazards becoming possible. Convective trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch. DISCUSSION...As of 14:20z, mosaic radar data showed thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across south-central OK and north-central TX with the strongest storm being a supercell over Montague County, TX. That storm is located very near or just to the south of a warm front that extends from low pressure over western north Texas east-northeast into central AR. The south of that boundary, visible satellite shows deepening moist convection near and to the southeast of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. The 12z FWD sounding sampled a very moist boundary layer surmounted by steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg. The cap was not overly strong, and latest model guidance suggests a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity this morning from the vicinity of the ongoing storms over south-central OK and north-central TX eastward toward the ArkLaTex. Regional 12z soundings sampled the presence of strong, mid/upper-level winds, which will combine with the moderate to strong instability to support higher-order storm modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist with storms that can favorably interact with the warm front in the area. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211 32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281501Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning. Large hail will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind potential increasing this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be required to address this severe weather threat. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across portions of eastern OK, driven largely by a low-level warm advection regime occurring to the north of a surface boundary stalled across southeast OK into central AR. RAP proximity soundings suggest the developing storms are rooted in a moist layer centered around 850 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough moving into western KS this morning with an area of downstream, implied forcing for ascent progressively overspreading the discussion area over the next several hours. That combined with the available reservoir of moderate, elevated instability, and relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will support the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail initially. Some cloud breaks (evident in visible satellite) may allow for a subset of the elevated storms to become surface-based by afternoon, at which point, a damaging wind threat would increase. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35769576 36959488 37869282 37869097 36649096 36149149 35549395 35169505 35769576 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0169 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO 15 WNW LTS. ..MEAD..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO 15 WNW LTS. ..MEAD..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 168 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 281030Z - 281800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western North into North-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 530 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) as they spread east-northeastward. Later this morning some clustering may occur, with occasional damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0591 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 281246Z - 281445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and eventually damaging winds appear likely along the warm frontal corridor crossing the Red River Valley this morning. DISCUSSION...A multicell storm complex is currently over Baylor/Archer Counties, TX, with impressive morning satellite presentation with overshooting tops and enhanced-v signature. These storms are riding along the warm front, which extends east/northeast into southeast OK. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable air mass exists, with MLCAPE already over 3500 J/kg at 12Z. Given effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt and 100 kt high-level flow, this complex is forecast to persist through the morning, and perhaps strengthen as SBCIN is reduced further. In that case, more of a rightward propagation is possible. Elsewhere, strong elevated instability exists well north of the warm front. The 12Z OUN sounding shows MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, along with ample deep-layer shear. Should any cells form within the broad warm advection zone, large hail would be likely. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33629614 33569656 33669724 33709799 33599869 33529929 33579949 33689953 33939951 34449892 34779788 34899716 34909621 34599581 34309578 33839581 33629614 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABI TO 25 NE CDS. ..GLEASON..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-155-197-207-237-275-337-447-485-487-503- 281340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JACK KNOX MONTAGUE THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region. A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks. Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region. A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks. Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026 Read more

MD 0590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280949Z - 281245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the morning hours, with isolated damaging hail possible. A watch may be required. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front moving northward into northwest TX and across the Red River, with 68-70 F dewpoints to the south. Both IR imagery and GPS water vapor sensors indicate a rapid northward surge of moisture, with PWAT values increasing from 0.55 to over 1.20" in about 2 hours. Already, thunderstorms have developed 1-2 hours ahead of schedule southeast of LBB, and a gradual increase has been seen in storm intensity. Southerly winds just off the surface will raise elevated instability values north of the warm front over the next several hours. Some forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, though effective value will depend on moisture depth/quality in the elevated slab/layer. Clearly, the environment will favor hail regardless, with deep-layer effective shear over 60 kt, along with steep lapse rates aloft and ample/increasing moisture. Uncertainty exists as to how far north severe hail cells will develop, but consensus is at least into southern OK. Significant hail over 2.00" diameter is quite possible, perhaps larger should sustained elevated supercells develop as depicted by some models. As such, a watch will need to be considered this morning. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33110118 33500114 34600015 35099890 35319756 35049663 34489661 34189678 33759729 33199918 33000083 33110118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies. There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies. There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period. Read more