SPC Tornado Watch 357 Status Reports
SPC Tornado Watch 357
WW 357 TORNADO CO KS NE 201950Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southern Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify along a boundary from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Akron CO to 45 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southern Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify along a boundary from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Akron CO to 45 miles southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level disturbances initially from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the mid-South Monday morning are expected to translate east toward the Atlantic Coast during the forecast period. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will coincide with a more prominent short-wave trough translating through the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Elsewhere, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern and central High Plains, downstream from a short-wave trough moving through the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the upper OH Valley at 12Z Monday is forecast to develop toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast by evening with a trailing cold front advancing through the central Appalachians and TN Valley into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast States. The western extension of the boundary will extend through the southern Plains into eastern NM with a strengthening upslope flow regime developing within the post-frontal environment across the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards. ...Northern and central High Plains into the southern Plains... There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to overspread the northern and central High Plains Monday, ahead of a stronger short-wave trough, which will remain well upstream through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Forcing for ascent remains much more nebulous across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon within the upslope flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, as well as along the stalled synoptic front in TX and OK. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. However, given the presence of moderate to strong instability and more-than-sufficient vertical shear for supercells, a conditional intensity group one contour has been added to the forecast. ...Southern Appalachians into the mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple, larger-scale storm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning across the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South. Daytime heating coupled with the presence of a very moist low-level air mass is expected to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon ahead of the early-day storms. As such, any storms that linger through the morning may intensify by afternoon, with additional storms developing along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit organized, severe-storm potential; however, the magnitude of instability and presence of steep low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging downburst winds. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level disturbances initially from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the mid-South Monday morning are expected to translate east toward the Atlantic Coast during the forecast period. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will coincide with a more prominent short-wave trough translating through the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Elsewhere, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern and central High Plains, downstream from a short-wave trough moving through the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the upper OH Valley at 12Z Monday is forecast to develop toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast by evening with a trailing cold front advancing through the central Appalachians and TN Valley into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast States. The western extension of the boundary will extend through the southern Plains into eastern NM with a strengthening upslope flow regime developing within the post-frontal environment across the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards. ...Northern and central High Plains into the southern Plains... There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to overspread the northern and central High Plains Monday, ahead of a stronger short-wave trough, which will remain well upstream through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Forcing for ascent remains much more nebulous across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon within the upslope flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, as well as along the stalled synoptic front in TX and OK. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. However, given the presence of moderate to strong instability and more-than-sufficient vertical shear for supercells, a conditional intensity group one contour has been added to the forecast. ...Southern Appalachians into the mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple, larger-scale storm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning across the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South. Daytime heating coupled with the presence of a very moist low-level air mass is expected to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon ahead of the early-day storms. As such, any storms that linger through the morning may intensify by afternoon, with additional storms developing along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit organized, severe-storm potential; however, the magnitude of instability and presence of steep low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging downburst winds. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level disturbances initially from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the mid-South Monday morning are expected to translate east toward the Atlantic Coast during the forecast period. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will coincide with a more prominent short-wave trough translating through the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Elsewhere, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern and central High Plains, downstream from a short-wave trough moving through the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the upper OH Valley at 12Z Monday is forecast to develop toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast by evening with a trailing cold front advancing through the central Appalachians and TN Valley into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast States. The western extension of the boundary will extend through the southern Plains into eastern NM with a strengthening upslope flow regime developing within the post-frontal environment across the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards. ...Northern and central High Plains into the southern Plains... There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to overspread the northern and central High Plains Monday, ahead of a stronger short-wave trough, which will remain well upstream through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Forcing for ascent remains much more nebulous across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon within the upslope flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, as well as along the stalled synoptic front in TX and OK. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. However, given the presence of moderate to strong instability and more-than-sufficient vertical shear for supercells, a conditional intensity group one contour has been added to the forecast. ...Southern Appalachians into the mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple, larger-scale storm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning across the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South. Daytime heating coupled with the presence of a very moist low-level air mass is expected to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon ahead of the early-day storms. As such, any storms that linger through the morning may intensify by afternoon, with additional storms developing along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit organized, severe-storm potential; however, the magnitude of instability and presence of steep low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging downburst winds. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains, as well as across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level disturbances initially from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the mid-South Monday morning are expected to translate east toward the Atlantic Coast during the forecast period. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will coincide with a more prominent short-wave trough translating through the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Elsewhere, mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the northern and central High Plains, downstream from a short-wave trough moving through the northern High Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure over the upper OH Valley at 12Z Monday is forecast to develop toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast by evening with a trailing cold front advancing through the central Appalachians and TN Valley into the Southeast and central Gulf Coast States. The western extension of the boundary will extend through the southern Plains into eastern NM with a strengthening upslope flow regime developing within the post-frontal environment across the central and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic... Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across the lower Great Lakes/upper OH Valley region. Ahead of that convection, a southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate through the Mid-Atlantic, enhancing the poleward transport of an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer. Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent coupled with convergence near and ahead of the surface low, cold front, and any existing outflow boundaries are expected to foster an increase in storm coverage and intensity by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow aloft will combine with backed, near-ground winds ahead of the surface low to enhance vertical shear across the DelMarVa region, supporting the potential for supercell storm modes capable of all severe-weather hazards. ...Northern and central High Plains into the southern Plains... There is some model signal for a weak mid-level disturbance to overspread the northern and central High Plains Monday, ahead of a stronger short-wave trough, which will remain well upstream through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Forcing for ascent remains much more nebulous across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms appear possible during the afternoon within the upslope flow regime across the northern and central High Plains, as well as along the stalled synoptic front in TX and OK. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. However, given the presence of moderate to strong instability and more-than-sufficient vertical shear for supercells, a conditional intensity group one contour has been added to the forecast. ...Southern Appalachians into the mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple, larger-scale storm clusters may be ongoing Monday morning across the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South. Daytime heating coupled with the presence of a very moist low-level air mass is expected to yield moderate to strong instability by afternoon ahead of the early-day storms. As such, any storms that linger through the morning may intensify by afternoon, with additional storms developing along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit organized, severe-storm potential; however, the magnitude of instability and presence of steep low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging downburst winds. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 Status Reports
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 Status Reports
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
WW 356 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 201925Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Central and Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of high-based thunderstorms will affect much of central Wyoming this afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be a concern over eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Lander WY to 40 miles east northeast of Scottsbluff NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Central and Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of high-based thunderstorms will affect much of central Wyoming this afternoon, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Other supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be a concern over eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Lander WY to 40 miles east northeast of Scottsbluff NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 20 19:14:01 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 20 19:14:01 UTC 2026.
SPC MD 1210
MD 1210 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201742Z - 201945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour, the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north. Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential, the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476 30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287 29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422 29898439 29738470 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 1210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201742Z - 201945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour, the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north. Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential, the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476 30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287 29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422 29898439 29738470 Read more
SPC MD 1209
MD 1209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201706Z - 201930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts associated with wet downbursts will be possible through late afternoon. This threat will remain sufficiently isolated and transient to negate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been well underway over the past hour per regional radar and GOES imagery. Minimal capping within a very moist environment, combined with weak ascent along a subtle confluence axis, has resulted in convective initiation slightly earlier than anticipated by most 12z solutions. Despite around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, negligible deep-layer wind shear will promote mainly pulse convection and multi-cell clusters with several outflow boundaries from this initial activity already apparent in radar imagery. With surface temperatures still relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, low-level thermodynamic conditions (primarily low-level lapse rates) are currently not optimal to support a more robust downburst threat. However, continued heating through the afternoon should yield pockets of higher MLCAPE and steeper low-level lapse rates that should favor a greater potential for strong to severe downbursts as convection spreads east/southeast. Based on latest radar/satellite trends, this appears most likely along the east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula. Regardless, the overall severe wind risk will likely remain fairly isolated and transient. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25408019 25448049 25678077 26148116 26788136 27768181 28088188 28538174 28778154 28858108 28858073 28438045 28178045 27848037 27408018 27098007 26837999 26638000 25718007 25408019 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 1209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201706Z - 201930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts associated with wet downbursts will be possible through late afternoon. This threat will remain sufficiently isolated and transient to negate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has been well underway over the past hour per regional radar and GOES imagery. Minimal capping within a very moist environment, combined with weak ascent along a subtle confluence axis, has resulted in convective initiation slightly earlier than anticipated by most 12z solutions. Despite around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, negligible deep-layer wind shear will promote mainly pulse convection and multi-cell clusters with several outflow boundaries from this initial activity already apparent in radar imagery. With surface temperatures still relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, low-level thermodynamic conditions (primarily low-level lapse rates) are currently not optimal to support a more robust downburst threat. However, continued heating through the afternoon should yield pockets of higher MLCAPE and steeper low-level lapse rates that should favor a greater potential for strong to severe downbursts as convection spreads east/southeast. Based on latest radar/satellite trends, this appears most likely along the east-central to southeastern FL Peninsula. Regardless, the overall severe wind risk will likely remain fairly isolated and transient. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25408019 25448049 25678077 26148116 26788136 27768181 28088188 28538174 28778154 28858108 28858073 28438045 28178045 27848037 27408018 27098007 26837999 26638000 25718007 25408019 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated areas on Day 2/Sunday. The latest forecast guidance shows that elevated wind/RH combinations over portions of the Southwest will expand slightly eastward into the eastern NM plains. The current eastern extent is limited by fuels receptivity as both live and dead fuels remain below critical dryness thresholds across this region. Farther north, across the Snake River Plain of ID, the areal extent of the anticipated Elevated conditions there was trimmed slightly in agreement with the latest forecast guidance keeping the driest afternoon RHs constrained to the lowest elevations. ..Stearns.. 06/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS, with embedded impulses continuing to traverse this flow tomorrow (Sunday). Surface low development over the southern High Plains will encourage dry westerly surface flow over portions of the Desert Southwest. By afternoon, 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-10 percent RH atop dry fuels will promote conditions favorable for wildfire spread, hence the introduction of Elevated highlights. Channeled flow within the Snake River Plain will also support Elevated dry/windy conditions by afternoon. Here, sustained westerly surface winds are expected to exceed 15 mph for at least a few hours as RH dips below 15 percent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible along a frontal zone from the Ohio Valley to the central High Plains from Sunday afternoon into night. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes (some of which could be strong) will be possible. ...Synopsis... A series of vorticity maxima, some with convective origins, will translate east through the central Plains and OH Valley, along with a belt of 40-50+ kt winds at 500 mb. In the lower levels, a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) initially from the southern Plains into the mid MO Valley Sunday morning is forecast to migrate east into the mid MS and OH Valleys, immediately ahead of a surface low tracking through the lower MO Valley into IL/IN. A cold front will trail the surface low, likely extending southwest through the lower MO Valley into southern KS or northern OK and the TX Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. ...Missouri into the OH Valley... Latest models remain consistent with previous runs in depicting one or multiple MCSs ongoing at 12Z Sunday along the LLJ axis from eastern KS into parts of northern and central MO. While the models signal a general decrease in storm coverage through the morning, the presence of modestly strong vertical shear suggests the potential for isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some hail across MO into western IL. Renewed storm development is anticipated by afternoon from IL/IN in the vicinity of a remnant MCV west/southwest along the trailing outflow/warm frontal boundary to the primary surface low over the lower MO Valley. Enhanced warm thermal and moisture fluxes occurring along the LLJ are expected to support air mass recovery in the wake of the early-day storms with moderate to potentially strong instability forecast from the lower OH Valley into the Ozarks, south of the composite boundary. Forecast soundings and plan-view kinematic fields indicate relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear in the vicinity of the composite boundary across portions of MO/IL/IN Sunday afternoon into evening, where the highest probability of supercells and/or bowing structures capable of all hazards (including strong tornadoes) is expected to exist. However, as was alluded to in the initial Day 2 discussion, and is still the case, there is considerable latitudinal variability in the composite boundary location. As such, uncertainty remains too high to delineate higher severe-weather probabilities for this region. ...Central High Plains... A trailing vorticity lobe and western extension of a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum are expected to support weak cyclogenesis along a front or trough pushing into the region from the west. Ahead of that boundary, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture content are expected to yield moderate afternoon instability amidst sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support supercell storm modes capable of large to very large hail. Most recent model guidance has shifted the corridor of preferred storm development and residence slightly east across portions of western and central NE into northwest KS, and the severe-weather probabilities have been adjusted accordingly. Storms may congeal into clusters Sunday evening with the severe-weather threat transitioning more to damaging winds. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau... High-resolution model guidance suggests that a sub-synoptic-scale surface low/frontal wave may evolve Sunday afternoon along the trailing front. Enhanced convergence near and east of that feature should be sufficient to overcome the cap and allow for isolated to widely scattered storm development. The combination of moderate to strong instability and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode with a risk for large to very large hail. A largely parallel orientation of the deep shear vector to the surface front suggests the potential for merging storms within a few hours after initiation, with damaging wind potential increasing at that time. Storms are expected to grow upscale into one or multiple MCSs with at least an isolated damaging-wind threat spreading south through the Ozark Plateau region Sunday night. ..Mead.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC MD 1208
MD 1208 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201516Z - 201715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail are ongoing, but may not persist beyond another hour or so. Trends are being monitored, though. DISCUSSION...Warm advection driven convection, downstream of short wave ridging spreading across and east of the northern Rockies, is ongoing across central Nebraska. Aided by inflow emanating from an elevated moist layer (850-700 mb layer), characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, a couple of cells have become fairly vigorous the past hour or so, despite the probable presence of a capping layer between 700-500 mb. Stronger storms have been focused near the southwestern edge of the stronger thermal gradient around 500 mb, which the latest Rapid Refresh output suggests will generally weaken with further warming in the 700-500 mb layer across central into eastern Nebraska through 16-18Z. Given the elevated nature of this convection above relatively cool/stable surface-based air, with little potential to acquire inflow from a destabilizing boundary layer an time soon, it remains unclear how much longer strong storm development will persist. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41679993 41899918 41349784 40579662 40139838 41109957 41679993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Areas affected...parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201516Z - 201715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms with potential to produce severe hail are ongoing, but may not persist beyond another hour or so. Trends are being monitored, though. DISCUSSION...Warm advection driven convection, downstream of short wave ridging spreading across and east of the northern Rockies, is ongoing across central Nebraska. Aided by inflow emanating from an elevated moist layer (850-700 mb layer), characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, a couple of cells have become fairly vigorous the past hour or so, despite the probable presence of a capping layer between 700-500 mb. Stronger storms have been focused near the southwestern edge of the stronger thermal gradient around 500 mb, which the latest Rapid Refresh output suggests will generally weaken with further warming in the 700-500 mb layer across central into eastern Nebraska through 16-18Z. Given the elevated nature of this convection above relatively cool/stable surface-based air, with little potential to acquire inflow from a destabilizing boundary layer an time soon, it remains unclear how much longer strong storm development will persist. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41679993 41899918 41349784 40579662 40139838 41109957 41679993 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Central Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This activity will spread eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of the night. ...Southeast... A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches, coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most intense cores. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Central Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This activity will spread eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of the night. ...Southeast... A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches, coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most intense cores. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jun 20, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Central Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This activity will spread eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of the night. ...Southeast... A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches, coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most intense cores. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Central Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This activity will spread eastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of the night. ...Southeast... A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches, coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most intense cores. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026 Read more
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