SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.
...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 091200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening
surface low near the Carolina Coast will send a cold front and
associated rainfall southeastward over the weekend. This will
provide a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to
much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic where fuels
have been exceptionally dry. A deepening surface low traversing
south-central Canada should bring stronger west-northwest winds and
low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Dry and
breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 3/Sunday and Southern
High Plains Day 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as upper-level troughing
gradually shifts into the region.
...Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday...
...Northern Plains...
Beneath an upper level shortwave trough, a surface low will begin to
deepen on Day 3/Sunday as it traverses south-central Canada. Surface
pressure gradients should tighten across much of the northern
Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward
progressing cold front and increasing cloud cover. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for these conditions
amid very dry fuels.
...Southern Plains...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest
and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the
southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy
conditions across the Southwest on Day 3/Sunday, with downslope
drying and enhanced winds evolving in the southern High Plains Day
4/Monday and Day 5/Tuesday. Preceding widespread rainfall in
addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the
impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern across portions
of the southern Plains and Southwest. However, in areas that did not
receive appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns will reemerge
for east-central NM into parts of the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Monday
where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and
breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Tuesday for the southern Plains
as the upper trough moves overhead and a surface low develops over
Oklahoma. A cold front will traverse the region during the
morning/afternoon, though guidance ambiguity in timing of the front
arrival precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening
into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming
was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern
Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to
account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance
consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.
Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.
Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal
progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon,
resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the
cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the
front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35
percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern
WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few
hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before
rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger
winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical
highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph
(gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the
frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions.
In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account
for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph
and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave
will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern
Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of
the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is
expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing
low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds
along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in
sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up
to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface,
exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the
frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into
the overnight hours.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US
Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will
drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry
conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of
the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains
ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move
southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy
conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT.
...FL...
Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of
central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger
than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow
aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH
below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall
and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns
should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible
into the evening and overnight.
...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave
will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out
southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected
with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH
values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy
conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather
concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern
MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern
Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.
...Mid-MS Valley...
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back
side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near
-20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support
moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary
layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front
passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface
dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures
warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly
deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping
across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
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MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010600Z - 010830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
continue overnight.
DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells
noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly
stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the
overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the
region from northern Mexico.
While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and
analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above
the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where
storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is
resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for
organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will
continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A
recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some
severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would
indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the
front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a
localized very large hail threat.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608
28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.
...FL vicinity...
An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.
Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest
destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.
..Leitman.. 05/01/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.
...South-central and Southeast Texas...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern
Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates
eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending
eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the
post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will
develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal
Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is
expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet
will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating
storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This
potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the
middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat
is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late
afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf
Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet
overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will
support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into
tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal
areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far
southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for
isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce
strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late
this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold
pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario
materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western
Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.
...Discussion...
Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast
evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period.
Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through
Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis
west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a
larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
Rockies. Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the
west of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, broad upper
ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific
toward Baja California.
Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels
across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley,
as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area
of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the
Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.
A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a
developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas
coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday
afternoon through Friday night.
...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle...
Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to
the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly
weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern
Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to
support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity
to the surface front. Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly
across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm
initiation to the south of the front.
Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this
period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the
evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization
along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain. However, it still
appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for
ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell
development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday
afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday
evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday.
..Kerr.. 04/30/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening
into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.
...Southwest and South-central Texas...
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon
into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward
across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will
increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into
south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening
forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large
hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a
closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying
upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and
amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast
region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the
southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief
to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions
across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns
where drought-stressed fuels exist.
...Central Florida...
Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady
westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will
pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula.
In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud
cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon.
However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing
into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak
heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula
and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a
robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending
into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport
will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather
threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad
upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored
by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the
Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected
to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation
chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain.
Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm,
dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge
amid a very dry fuelscape.
...Central Florida...
Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much
of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving,
quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and
northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary,
mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning
ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall,
and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could
further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an
Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10
mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought
stressed fuels.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds
and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail
possible across portions of Texas.
...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today
over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from
northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a
surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather
moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this
boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s.
Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to
2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into
the lower MS Valley.
Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective
coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the
weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm
sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the
front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very
strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any
persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX
(with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but
isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern
AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a
greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS
Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring
this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given
increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a
Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts
of TX to southern AL with this update.
...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in
generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC).
Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in
transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An
isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km
SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could
also support a brief tornado.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS,
generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the
evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split
flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at
least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging
offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest
coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast
to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S.
Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/
southern California coast by early next week.
Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights
will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming
west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson
Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a
confluent regime across and east of the Rockies.
Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more
uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week,
when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland
across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the
timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to
diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor
severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next
Monday or Tuesday.
Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern
through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface
troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building
mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This
might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely
scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday.
Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe
thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will
depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by
this time.
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MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281550Z - 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is
expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective
trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the
morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven
by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north
of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north
of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed
the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into
the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer
is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z.
The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details
on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ
storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating
complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat
being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex
later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual
increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the
vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong,
mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will
support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is
somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can
favorably interact with the outflow boundary.
..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618
32398761 32748957 32979029
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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