Storm Prediction Center

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PRX TO 35 NNE TXK TO 15 WSW PBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542 ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-039-057-073-081-091-099-103-139-260640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC089-260640- Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

MD 0540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0540 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...northeastern Texas...southwestern Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 260246Z - 260445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue downstream of WW144 and WW146. DISCUSSION...Supercells continue across portions of western Arkansas, with hints of additional development near the boundary across eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Arkansas. The environment downstream in northeastern Texas/southern Arkansas/northwestern Louisiana remains very unstable and strongly sheared. This will favor maintenance of ongoing storms and potential for new supercell development. Nocturnal low-level cooling and capping appears to be increasing, which will likely keep the main threat for large hail. However, given some remaining low-level shear any surface based storm would have potential for a tornado. A new watch will likely be needed to cover these threats by 04z. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33079212 33869259 34029331 34039420 33709508 33589531 32959575 32559528 32199385 32089298 32069233 32379221 33079212 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 260331Z - 260500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A mature supercell continues to track southward in WW144. A new watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell with a history of tornadoes and hail up to baseball size continues to track southeast near the Ft. Worth area. This supercell will likely continue given the favorable very unstable and highly sheared environment across central/eastern Texas. VAD profiles from KFWS show 0-1km SRH around 350 m2/s2 with large clock-wise curvature in the low levels. The threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes will continue with this storm. A new watch will likely be needed to replace portions of WW144 and extend further south. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 31999695 32159743 32509787 33029795 33089789 33289747 33379701 33419639 33359572 33179536 32759529 32169546 31999612 31909664 31999695 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PRX TO 35 NNE TXK TO 15 WSW PBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542 ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-039-057-073-081-091-099-103-139-260640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC089-260640- Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-083-091- 097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133-139-149-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER UNION YELL LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO 35 NNW RUE. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC079-135-260540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO 35 NNW RUE. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC079-135-260540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO 35 NNW RUE. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC079-135-260540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MKO TO 35 NNW RUE. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-260540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN SEBASTIAN OKC079-135-260540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 145 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 252225Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop east/northeast through the evening. These storms will mainly pose a risk for large hail in the 1.0-2.0 inch range. A few strong to severe wind gusts also are possible. While the overall tornado risk is low, a surface boundary across west-central Arkansas could lift northward this evening and a tornado along this boundary is conditionally possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Bartlesville OK to 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-251-257-277-349- 367-379-397-439-467-497-260540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-251-257-277-349- 367-379-397-439-467-497-260540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more