SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday.
A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will
drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi
Valleys.
...Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley...
Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along
potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a
weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface
low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.
...Oklahoma...
The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of
central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. The main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.
...Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country...
Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated
development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday.
A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will
drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi
Valleys.
...Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley...
Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along
potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a
weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface
low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.
...Oklahoma...
The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of
central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. The main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.
...Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country...
Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated
development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
The forecast remains on track with no changes to the existing
Elevated highlights. Modest westerly flow aloft and a complementary
evolving surface cyclone across northwest TX will promote dry and
breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern High
Plains today. Relative humidity struggled to rise above 25%
overnight across much of southeastern NM and far west TX. A shallow
near surface inversion is quickly eroding across the region under
mostly sunny skies, allowing stronger boundary layer winds aloft to
mix down to the surface through peak heating this afternoon. West
winds of around 15 mph with brief, localized gusts of 35 mph
(particularly in the adjacent lee areas of mountain ranges), minimum
RH of 10-15% and receptive fuels will promote Elevated fire weather
conditions over south-central CO, far southeastern AZ, much of NM
and adjacent western TX through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
The forecast remains on track with no changes to the existing
Elevated highlights. Modest westerly flow aloft and a complementary
evolving surface cyclone across northwest TX will promote dry and
breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern High
Plains today. Relative humidity struggled to rise above 25%
overnight across much of southeastern NM and far west TX. A shallow
near surface inversion is quickly eroding across the region under
mostly sunny skies, allowing stronger boundary layer winds aloft to
mix down to the surface through peak heating this afternoon. West
winds of around 15 mph with brief, localized gusts of 35 mph
(particularly in the adjacent lee areas of mountain ranges), minimum
RH of 10-15% and receptive fuels will promote Elevated fire weather
conditions over south-central CO, far southeastern AZ, much of NM
and adjacent western TX through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
The forecast remains on track with no changes to the existing
Elevated highlights. Modest westerly flow aloft and a complementary
evolving surface cyclone across northwest TX will promote dry and
breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern High
Plains today. Relative humidity struggled to rise above 25%
overnight across much of southeastern NM and far west TX. A shallow
near surface inversion is quickly eroding across the region under
mostly sunny skies, allowing stronger boundary layer winds aloft to
mix down to the surface through peak heating this afternoon. West
winds of around 15 mph with brief, localized gusts of 35 mph
(particularly in the adjacent lee areas of mountain ranges), minimum
RH of 10-15% and receptive fuels will promote Elevated fire weather
conditions over south-central CO, far southeastern AZ, much of NM
and adjacent western TX through the afternoon.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected
late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible.
...Synopsis...
A closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over Manitoba and
Saskatchewan today, while generally zonal/westerly mid-level winds
persist over the southern Plains. A weak shortwave trough over the
Southwest/southern Rockies this morning is forecast to eject
eastward over the southern/central Plains by late this afternoon. At
the surface, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary draped
across north-central/northeast TX will shift northward into OK as a
warm front today, while a low gradually deepens over northwest TX by
late afternoon/early evening. Rich low-level moisture characterized
by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely advance as far
north as central into southeast OK through peak diurnal heating,
with lesser moisture return farther north into northwest OK, KS, and
southeast NE ahead of a cold front. A dryline will extend
south-southwestward from the surface low across central into
south-central TX.
...Southern/Central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is
expected to develop along/east of the dryline in TX and south of the
warm front in OK by peak afternoon heating. The presence of
seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates will also support this very favorable thermodynamic
environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting
mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, it
should be sufficient for at least isolated thunderstorm initiation
by mid afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near
the warm front/dryline intersection in south-central OK.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits likely. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas have been expanded
slightly in OK and north TX to account for deviant thunderstorm
motions and the potential for multiple intense supercells to track
east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for
supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the
dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains
low. Have maintained the Marginal Risk for this potential, with some
expansion eastward in case isolated thunderstorms do initiate.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will be present near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that can remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
couple of EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as it spreads southeastward into the ArkLaTex.
Farther north in KS/NE, instability and low-level moisture is
expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small
clusters may eventually develop this afternoon and move
east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft
organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds
should be the main threat with this activity through mid evening
before it eventually weakens.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
A long-lived convective cluster has nearly moved offshore from the
coast of AL/MS/LA. In its wake, a rain-cooled airmass exists across
much of the lower MS Valley. This should hinder the development of
much surface-based instability through early afternoon. Still,
eventual re-destabilization should occur along/near the remnant
outflow boundary. Isolated cells that may develop could pose some
risk for hail and damaging winds.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early
Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread
toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging
wind gusts.
...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic
mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward
through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally
weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of
the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same
time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions
of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears
likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave
perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower
Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to
strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains
late Sunday through Sunday night.
There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when
the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary
impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern
Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high
plains. It now appears that it may not be until early evening or
later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle
perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday
morning. The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface
low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the
mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward
migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado
into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday.
In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will
strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central
through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of
a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.
...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not
offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective
potential for this period. Among other issues, the plume of warm
elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the
southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the
initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector,
while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability.
Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and
adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day
severe weather potential.
Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved,
50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region by early Sunday evening. This likely will
contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline,
particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a
narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably
will become supportive of supercell development. The potential for
a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells
propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of
enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening
southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb).
Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late
evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one
or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by
strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north
central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great
Plains.
..Kerr.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.
Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to
mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the
teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No
appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will
maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits
to low teens across the region.
Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the
southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.
This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with
a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high
probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts
upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical
conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and
southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have
been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy
conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th
percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire
starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.
Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated
fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated
wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest
TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with
eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.
..Moore.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, tornadoes and
wind damage will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains
and Arklatex. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern
Rockies this morning and into the southern Plains this afternoon. At
the surface, a low will deepen across northwest Texas. Ahead of the
approaching trough, moisture advection will take place in the
southern Plains, as surface dewpoints over Oklahoma increase into
the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to strong
destabilization by afternoon from parts of north Texas into
Oklahoma. An outflow boundary over north Texas will move northward
this afternoon into southern Oklahoma. Low-level convergence will
increase along this boundary in the afternoon. Low-level convergence
will also increase along a front moving into central Oklahoma. These
two zones will be the focus for convective initiation this
afternoon. Severe storms are expected to develop and move
southeastward across much of Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon
and evening.
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon in far southern Oklahoma
to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex increase MLCAPE into
the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range and have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8
C/km range. This combined with long hodographs and a tendency for
the storms to remain discrete will be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. Hailstones greater than 3 inches in diameter will
be possible with the more intense cores. In addition, a 25 to 30
knot low-level jet will be in place late this afternoon from north
Texas into east-central Oklahoma. This feature will create strong
low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear
will be amplified by the boundary in southern Oklahoma. By early
this evening, forecast sounding near the western edge of the
low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 300 to 400
m2/s2 range. This will support a potential for strong tornadoes with
the more robust supercells. Also, a wind-damage threat will develop
with supercells. The wind-damage threat will continue through much
of the evening as a cluster of severe storms moves southeastward
toward the Ark-La-Tex.
...Central Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern and central
Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
through western and central Kansas into western Oklahoma. To the
east of the front, a well-defined moist axis will be located from
central Oklahoma into east-central Kansas. Along the western edge of
the moist airmass, a north-to-south corridor of low-level
convergence is forecast which will focus convective initiation. As
instability maximizes this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move southeastward across much of central and southern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings across this area
by late afternoon show moderate instability and 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range, which will support a large hail and wind-damage
threat.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
A moist airmass will remain over much of the southern Plains today.
Along the northwestern edge of the moist sector, low-level
convergence will increase along a well-developed dryline. Although
large-scale ascent will remain minimal, isolated storms could
develop late this afternoon to the east of the dryline. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support an
isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/25/2026
Read more
WW 0142 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TYR TO
10 WNW GGG TO 15 WSW SHV TO 25 WSW MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
..THOMPSON..04/25/26
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 142
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-031-043-049-069-081-085-127-250640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE DE SOTO GRANT
JACKSON NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER
SABINE WINN
TXC001-073-213-365-401-419-423-467-250640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CHEROKEE HENDERSON
PANOLA RUSK SHELBY
SMITH VAN ZANDT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
WW 142 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 250145Z - 250900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Northwest Louisiana
Northeast Texas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 845 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to transition toward a
linear storm mode and develop southeast through tonight along an
outflow boundary oriented across northeast TX and northern
Louisiana. Scattered wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado
or two are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Texarkana AR to 50 miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30035.
...Leitman
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Discussion...
A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
weakens through this period. However, mid/upper ridging across
southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
southwesterly flow between the two features.
Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
southern Great Plains. Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
may reach portions of central Kansas.
In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
vicinity, before tending to shift northward.
...Great Plains...
Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell
development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
and strengthening shear. By early Sunday evening, this probably
will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet. This may become
supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
across the western Kansas vicinity.
Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
Read more
WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CQB TO
25 S GMJ TO 30 S UMN TO 20 NW SGF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
..THOMPSON..04/24/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-240840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
MOC009-043-077-209-213-240840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE
STONE TANEY
OKC001-021-037-101-107-111-143-145-240840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 140 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 240250Z - 240900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
950 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 950 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and
northern Oklahoma will track eastward into the watch area overnight,
posing a risk of locally damaging winds and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles southeast of
Tulsa OK to 55 miles north of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137...WW 138...WW 139...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Read more
