Storm Prediction Center

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-213-223-231-251-257-277-349- 367-379-397-439-467-497-260540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0539 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 144...146... FOR WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0539 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...west-central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...146... Valid 260149Z - 260345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144, 146 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW146. DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to move across west-central Arkansas, producing reports of 1.5-2.5 inch hail. The environment ahead of these storms continues to be strongly unstable with ample shear for organization. This will likely continue to support potential for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter). Storms have remained mostly elevated but should a cell be able to move into the warmer air to the south and become surface based in the more backed southeasterly flow, potential for a tornado would be possible. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 35239409 35299467 34809468 34189408 34019368 33989340 34019319 34019302 34169286 34559293 34839325 35239409 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MLC TO 15 NW HRO. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-087-131-143-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC023-079-127-135-260440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133- 149-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133- 149-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133- 149-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-051-057-059-061-081-083-097-099-103-105-109-113-127-133- 149-260440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ABI TO 25 WNW MKO. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-260340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-019-023-029-037-061-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-099- 101-121-123-127-135-260340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL CREEK HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-237-277-337-363-367- 387-397-439-449-497-260340- Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ABI TO 25 WNW MKO. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-260340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-019-023-029-037-061-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-099- 101-121-123-127-135-260340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL CREEK HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-237-277-337-363-367- 387-397-439-449-497-260340- Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ABI TO 25 WNW MKO. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-260340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-019-023-029-037-061-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-099- 101-121-123-127-135-260340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL CREEK HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-237-277-337-363-367- 387-397-439-449-497-260340- Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ABI TO 25 WNW MKO. ..THORNTON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-260340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN OKC005-013-019-023-029-037-061-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-099- 101-121-123-127-135-260340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL CREEK HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-237-277-337-363-367- 387-397-439-449-497-260340- Read more

WW 144 TORNADO OK TX 252050Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected through late afternoon and early evening, initially and especially across south-central Oklahoma and far northern Texas. Robust supercells capable of very large hail are expected, along with heightened tornado potential, especially in vicinity of the warm front. Damaging wind potential will also steadily increase later this evening as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Wichita Falls TX to 65 miles northeast of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0535 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 145... Valid 260043Z - 260245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 145 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of higher hail, and perhaps severe wind, potential will persist across far southeast Kansas and northwest Oklahoma for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the past 1-2 hours has depicted several transient, and likely elevated, supercells from far southeast KS into northeast OK and far northwest AR with a history of producing golf ball sized hail and occasional severe winds. Storm motions to the southeast within the zone of initiation is promoting destructive storm interactions, and precluding a more prolonged hail threat from any one storm. However, GOES IR imagery continues to show periodic intense updrafts, and new convection continues to develop within this zone of focused warm advection (likely focused near the 850 mb level). New development is particularly noted on the southwest flank of a gradually expanding cold pool where ascent appears to be maximized and MUCAPE remains near 2000 J/kg. The regional KINX VWP also continues to sample very strong speed shear through a deep layer. Consequently, new convection developing across northeast OK over the next few hours will likely continue to see transient organization - possibly into supercells - with an attendant threat for large hail. Storm interactions/destructive interference may continue to limit longevity and intensity of any particular cell, but latest high-res guidance suggests a threat for severe hail, and perhaps sporadic severe gusts, will likely persist through 04-05 UTC. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37419597 37169524 36919474 36459417 36129398 35889398 35629427 35589460 35569506 35719547 35859588 36149635 36639668 37099665 37299654 37409641 37419597 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0536 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 144... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...north-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 144... Valid 260103Z - 260200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat to continue over the next couple of hours with a mature supercell across north-central Texas. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell continues to move southeastward across north-central Texas across Jack County. This cell has a history of producing multiple tornadoes and very large hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). Modifying the hodograph from KFDR earlier and now from KFWS would suggest that the southeastward storm motion is contributing to around 200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. This storm is also moving within a volatile thermodynamic environment, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and dew points in the upper 60s in a broad swath ahead of this storm. Radar presence continues to show a strong mid-level mesocyclone. It is likely that this supercell will continue to pose a risk for tornadoes, with potential for a strong tornado. Large hail (some 2-4 inches in diameter) will also remain a threat. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33609783 33579809 33469825 33059819 32829795 32799759 32839748 32919728 33159696 33419703 33539721 33619755 33609783 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143... FOR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...Far southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143... Valid 260105Z - 260230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143 continues. SUMMARY...The near-term severe threat appears to be diminishing across far southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Convective trends are being monitored to determine if a temporal watch extension may be needed for southern portions of WW 134. DISCUSSION...A supercell moving southeastward across southern KS has shown significant signs of weakening over the past 30 minutes. While attempts at additional convective initiation noted early across northwest OK, the onset of nocturnal cooling and increasing inhibition has drastically reduced the potential for additional thunderstorm development across west-central to northwest OK. These trends suggest that the severe threat for southern portions of WW 134 is quickly waning. However, weak convection continues to develop along an outflow boundary along and south of Highway 54 near Pratt, KS. Given locally stronger forcing for ascent that can compensate for increasing inhibition and an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, it remains plausible that this activity could intensify and pose a severe hail/wind threat downstream into far northwest OK in the coming hours. Confidence in this scenario is low, but convective trends will continue to be monitored to determine if a temporal extension of portions of WW 134 will be required after the 02 UTC expiration time. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37349968 37529947 37669914 37709881 37669846 37519818 36799744 36519753 36309789 36239830 36239870 36279905 36429936 37349968 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large to very large, tornadoes and severe wind gust will continue this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Additional severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the central Plains. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from east-central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Scattered severe storms are ongoing near an instability maximum that is near the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The RAP is also showing very steep mid-level lapse rates over southern Oklahoma and far north Texas. 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for large to very large hail. Hailstones of 2 to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, a low-level jet is analyzed from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma. The low-level jet has not strengthened as much as was originally forecast, but is still expected to gradually ramp up over the next few hours. This will increase low-level shear maintaining a tornado threat. The RAP still increases 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range within a couple of hours, suggesting that a potential for strong tornadoes will continue. A wind-damage threat is also expected to be maintained this evening into the early overnight period, as a severe convective cluster moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex. Concerning the placement of the Moderate, it appears that severe threat coverage will be more limited north of I-40. For this reason, the northern extent of the Moderate Risk area has been trimmed. ...Central Plains... Water vapor currently shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into the mid Missouri Valley and another one moving into the central High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Across this area at mid-levels, flow is generally from west to southwest at 30 to 40 knots. This is creating sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large to very large, tornadoes and severe wind gust will continue this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Additional severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the central Plains. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from east-central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Scattered severe storms are ongoing near an instability maximum that is near the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The RAP is also showing very steep mid-level lapse rates over southern Oklahoma and far north Texas. 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for large to very large hail. Hailstones of 2 to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, a low-level jet is analyzed from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma. The low-level jet has not strengthened as much as was originally forecast, but is still expected to gradually ramp up over the next few hours. This will increase low-level shear maintaining a tornado threat. The RAP still increases 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range within a couple of hours, suggesting that a potential for strong tornadoes will continue. A wind-damage threat is also expected to be maintained this evening into the early overnight period, as a severe convective cluster moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex. Concerning the placement of the Moderate, it appears that severe threat coverage will be more limited north of I-40. For this reason, the northern extent of the Moderate Risk area has been trimmed. ...Central Plains... Water vapor currently shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into the mid Missouri Valley and another one moving into the central High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Across this area at mid-levels, flow is generally from west to southwest at 30 to 40 knots. This is creating sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large to very large, tornadoes and severe wind gust will continue this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Additional severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the central Plains. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from east-central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Scattered severe storms are ongoing near an instability maximum that is near the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The RAP is also showing very steep mid-level lapse rates over southern Oklahoma and far north Texas. 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for large to very large hail. Hailstones of 2 to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, a low-level jet is analyzed from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma. The low-level jet has not strengthened as much as was originally forecast, but is still expected to gradually ramp up over the next few hours. This will increase low-level shear maintaining a tornado threat. The RAP still increases 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range within a couple of hours, suggesting that a potential for strong tornadoes will continue. A wind-damage threat is also expected to be maintained this evening into the early overnight period, as a severe convective cluster moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex. Concerning the placement of the Moderate, it appears that severe threat coverage will be more limited north of I-40. For this reason, the northern extent of the Moderate Risk area has been trimmed. ...Central Plains... Water vapor currently shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into the mid Missouri Valley and another one moving into the central High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Across this area at mid-levels, flow is generally from west to southwest at 30 to 40 knots. This is creating sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2026 Read more