SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue
to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire
weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains
Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the
eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides
much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day
6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level
feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall
across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day
7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward
progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat
across the region.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot
mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region
early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with
deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and
fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains
where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained.
At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the
Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests
an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern
Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread
rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into
portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough
moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing
pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at
least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant
precipitation push through the region.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis...
A lingering subtropical jet and lee surface troughing will continue
to bring dry and breezy conditions and resultant adverse fire
weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains
Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Upper-level troughing deepens across the
eastern U.S. by midweek, while a surface low and cold front provides
much needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.
Another upper-level short wave reaches the Southwest on Day
6/Thursday, while a surface low evolves ahead of this mid-level
feature across west TX. This would support widespread rainfall
across NM and much of the Southern Plains on Thursday night into Day
7/Friday morning, as low-level moisture makes marked westward
progress well into eastern NM, mitigating the fire weather threat
across the region.
...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains...
A fire weather threat will persist across portions of the Southwest
and Southern Plains Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday as robust, 55-65 knot
mid-level flow from the west-southwest continues over this region
early next week. Subsequent lee surface troughing in concert with
deep layer westerly winds aloft will support dry, westerly flow and
fire weather concerns across much of NM and the southern High Plains
where broad 40% probabilities were largely maintained.
At the surface, a cold front should sweep southward east of the
Continental Divide midweek. Latest forecast guidance still suggests
an improving fire weather scenario unfolding across the Southern
Plains by the Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday time frame. Widespread
rainfall is possible across much of the Southern Plains and into
portions of the Southwest ahead of an advancing upper-level trough
moving into northern Mexico Thursday night into Friday. A troughing
pattern across the eastern U.S. should similarly ameliorate, at
least temporarily, fire weather concerns for the Appalachians,
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold front and attendant
precipitation push through the region.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 144 TORNADO OK TX 252050Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Central Oklahoma
North Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Intense storm development is expected through late
afternoon and early evening, initially and especially across
south-central Oklahoma and far northern Texas. Robust supercells
capable of very large hail are expected, along with heightened
tornado potential, especially in vicinity of the warm front.
Damaging wind potential will also steadily increase later this
evening as storms progress east-southeastward across the region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Wichita Falls
TX to 65 miles northeast of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29025.
...Guyer
Read more
MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Areas affected...Central Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251857Z - 252100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour
or so across portions of central KS and northwestern OK. Large hail
up to 2" in diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible as the
storms intensify through this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery within the warm sector ahead
of a cold front and dryline indicates two areas where convective
initiation seems likely within the next hour or so. Cumulus is
becoming more prevalent and deepening over northwestern OK, while
several attempts at initiation have been noted along the cold front
across west-central KS. Breaks in the stratus near these areas has
allowed for increased heating ahead of a mid-level perturbation to
the southwest, and destabilization will continue to occur over the
next 1-2 hours with additional insulation. Surface dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates is
currently contributing to MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg across this region. Just
upstream, a modest mid-level westerly speed max is also nosing into
the area, and will maintain effective bulk shear magnitudes around
40 to 50 kt. Currently, VNX's VWP is indicating effective shear
around 45 kt.
Elongated, straight hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates
around 7.5-8 C/km are expected to contribute to large hail sizes
through at least late this afternoon, with a few supercells likely.
A severe thunderstorm watch is currently being considered.
..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 35749943 36049953 36259979 36250000 38899994 39929941
39949817 37239747 36439752 35339849 35749943
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds
are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the
southern Plains and ArkLaTex.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main
adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly
extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest
to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The
latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted
some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this
boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg
MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking
is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce
severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4
inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may
also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado
being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete
and dominant.
..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds
are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the
southern Plains and ArkLaTex.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main
adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly
extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest
to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The
latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted
some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this
boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg
MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking
is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce
severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4
inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may
also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado
being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete
and dominant.
..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches
in diameter), tornadoes (some EF2+), and scattered damaging winds
are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the
southern Plains and ArkLaTex.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The main
adjustments made to the outlook (albeit minor) were to slightly
extend the moderate risk-driven hail probabilities to the southwest
to align with the current position of the surface boundary. The
latest high-resolution guidance consensus has consistently depicted
some of the most robust storms to form and anchor along this
boundary. With current mesoanalysis already showing 4000+ J/kg
MLCAPE colocated across far south-central OK, the current thinking
is that intense supercells traversing this boundary will produce
severe hail in the 3-4 inch range, and a couple of stones above 4
inches in diameter cannot be completely ruled out. Tornadoes may
also occur, with the best chance of a strong to intense tornado
being with a boundary-anchoring supercell that can remain discrete
and dominant.
..Squitieri.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the
near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE
2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in
Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of
slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon
heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very
unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not
expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave
trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm
sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is
expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z),
especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north
across south-central/east-central Oklahoma.
40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support
intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This
activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation,
and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in
diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to
track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional
risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length
of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation
remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective
development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the
surface triple point across North Texas.
Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be
present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally
enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed
near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with
any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight
increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very
strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a
few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may
grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds
as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and
across the ArkLaTex.
...Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska...
Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to
remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are
expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to
scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat
with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast...
Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow
modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential
that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS,
approach the region from the northwest late tonight.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Monday. A deepening surface low in the upper Mississippi Valley
will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector.
Strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms
capable of all severe hazards.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by
mid-afternoon. A deepening surface low will lift northeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley. Associated with the cyclone, a cold
front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central
Iowa/western Missouri. Within the warm sector, rich moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s F) and mid-level lapse rates around 8
C/km will promote MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. 60+ kts of effective
shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region.
Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. There remains some uncertainty
as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon
given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. The NAM would
suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development
on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. The
latest ECMWF depicts convection lingering into the later
morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of
central Illinois. This would act to shift the primary corridor of
severe risk farther south and east. The main zone of concern, when
taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast
Iowa into central Illinois. With time, one or more stronger linear
segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes would be possible. A categorical upgrade to Level
4/Moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which
will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.
...Mid-South...
Though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level
ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s F to potentially low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broad mid-level jet
will nose into the region. Around 50 kts of effective shear can be
expected. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Monday. A deepening surface low in the upper Mississippi Valley
will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector.
Strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms
capable of all severe hazards.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by
mid-afternoon. A deepening surface low will lift northeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley. Associated with the cyclone, a cold
front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central
Iowa/western Missouri. Within the warm sector, rich moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s F) and mid-level lapse rates around 8
C/km will promote MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. 60+ kts of effective
shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region.
Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. There remains some uncertainty
as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon
given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. The NAM would
suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development
on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. The
latest ECMWF depicts convection lingering into the later
morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of
central Illinois. This would act to shift the primary corridor of
severe risk farther south and east. The main zone of concern, when
taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast
Iowa into central Illinois. With time, one or more stronger linear
segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes would be possible. A categorical upgrade to Level
4/Moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which
will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.
...Mid-South...
Though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level
ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s F to potentially low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broad mid-level jet
will nose into the region. Around 50 kts of effective shear can be
expected. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
Missouri.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Monday. A deepening surface low in the upper Mississippi Valley
will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector.
Strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms
capable of all severe hazards.
...Mid-Mississippi Valley...
A fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by
mid-afternoon. A deepening surface low will lift northeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley. Associated with the cyclone, a cold
front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central
Iowa/western Missouri. Within the warm sector, rich moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s F) and mid-level lapse rates around 8
C/km will promote MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. 60+ kts of effective
shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region.
Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. There remains some uncertainty
as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon
given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. The NAM would
suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development
on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. The
latest ECMWF depicts convection lingering into the later
morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of
central Illinois. This would act to shift the primary corridor of
severe risk farther south and east. The main zone of concern, when
taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast
Iowa into central Illinois. With time, one or more stronger linear
segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes would be possible. A categorical upgrade to Level
4/Moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which
will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.
...Mid-South...
Though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level
ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s F to potentially low 70s F
dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A broad mid-level jet
will nose into the region. Around 50 kts of effective shear can be
expected. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across portions of central/eastern NM late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. A mid-level short wave will shift into Southwest
through Sunday. An accompanying 60-70 knot mid-level jet stretching
from southeastern AZ into central NM and strengthening lee cyclone
across southeastern CO will aid in strong low-level southwest winds
across much of NM into portions of west TX. Minimal cloud cover
collocated with the jet core will support efficient boundary layer
mixing during the day, enabling stronger winds aloft to surface by
late morning and early afternoon. A corridor of southwest winds of
25-35 mph (localized gusts of 50-60 mph) should set up from
southwestern NM into central NM, with alignment of lower RH most
likely across central and eastern NM. Enhanced downslope drying
should yield broad 15-20% RH reductions across the southern High
Plains, with pockets of sub 10% RH emerging in far west TX. A
broader critical/elevated fire weather threat remains across much of
the Southern High Plains where southwest winds of 15-25 mph and dry
conditions will support wildfire spread potential.
Fuels remain dry and receptive across the Southern Plains and NM
where rising ERC values approaching the 90th percentile have emerged
in the presence of prevailing dry conditions. Recent and ongoing
active fires across the Southwest and Southern Plains could be
impacted by the dry and windy conditions that will evolve on Sunday.
Isolated high-based, fast moving showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected across northern NM and broader Southern Rockies region
tomorrow as the low-amplitude short wave trough progresses
east-northeastward. However, limited instability aloft, lack of an
appreciable dry sub-cloud layer and marginal fuel receptiveness at
higher elevations should limit a more widespread dry thunderstorm
threat.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across portions of central/eastern NM late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. A mid-level short wave will shift into Southwest
through Sunday. An accompanying 60-70 knot mid-level jet stretching
from southeastern AZ into central NM and strengthening lee cyclone
across southeastern CO will aid in strong low-level southwest winds
across much of NM into portions of west TX. Minimal cloud cover
collocated with the jet core will support efficient boundary layer
mixing during the day, enabling stronger winds aloft to surface by
late morning and early afternoon. A corridor of southwest winds of
25-35 mph (localized gusts of 50-60 mph) should set up from
southwestern NM into central NM, with alignment of lower RH most
likely across central and eastern NM. Enhanced downslope drying
should yield broad 15-20% RH reductions across the southern High
Plains, with pockets of sub 10% RH emerging in far west TX. A
broader critical/elevated fire weather threat remains across much of
the Southern High Plains where southwest winds of 15-25 mph and dry
conditions will support wildfire spread potential.
Fuels remain dry and receptive across the Southern Plains and NM
where rising ERC values approaching the 90th percentile have emerged
in the presence of prevailing dry conditions. Recent and ongoing
active fires across the Southwest and Southern Plains could be
impacted by the dry and windy conditions that will evolve on Sunday.
Isolated high-based, fast moving showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected across northern NM and broader Southern Rockies region
tomorrow as the low-amplitude short wave trough progresses
east-northeastward. However, limited instability aloft, lack of an
appreciable dry sub-cloud layer and marginal fuel receptiveness at
higher elevations should limit a more widespread dry thunderstorm
threat.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across portions of central/eastern NM late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. A mid-level short wave will shift into Southwest
through Sunday. An accompanying 60-70 knot mid-level jet stretching
from southeastern AZ into central NM and strengthening lee cyclone
across southeastern CO will aid in strong low-level southwest winds
across much of NM into portions of west TX. Minimal cloud cover
collocated with the jet core will support efficient boundary layer
mixing during the day, enabling stronger winds aloft to surface by
late morning and early afternoon. A corridor of southwest winds of
25-35 mph (localized gusts of 50-60 mph) should set up from
southwestern NM into central NM, with alignment of lower RH most
likely across central and eastern NM. Enhanced downslope drying
should yield broad 15-20% RH reductions across the southern High
Plains, with pockets of sub 10% RH emerging in far west TX. A
broader critical/elevated fire weather threat remains across much of
the Southern High Plains where southwest winds of 15-25 mph and dry
conditions will support wildfire spread potential.
Fuels remain dry and receptive across the Southern Plains and NM
where rising ERC values approaching the 90th percentile have emerged
in the presence of prevailing dry conditions. Recent and ongoing
active fires across the Southwest and Southern Plains could be
impacted by the dry and windy conditions that will evolve on Sunday.
Isolated high-based, fast moving showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected across northern NM and broader Southern Rockies region
tomorrow as the low-amplitude short wave trough progresses
east-northeastward. However, limited instability aloft, lack of an
appreciable dry sub-cloud layer and marginal fuel receptiveness at
higher elevations should limit a more widespread dry thunderstorm
threat.
..Williams.. 04/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon
across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. West to
southwesterly low-level winds are forecast to strengthen in response
to a steadily deepening lee cyclone across eastern CO Sunday
afternoon and evening. Latest ensemble guidance depicts reasonably
high probability for sustained 20-25 mph winds with some
deterministic solutions suggesting winds upwards of 30 mph are
possible. The approach of a mid-level jet during the late
afternoon/early evening hours may support enhanced downward momentum
transfer through a deeply-mixed boundary layer, which could manifest
at the surface as 40-50 mph wind gusts.
Dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains given an
antecedent dry air mass (dewpoints were in the low teens per 06 UTC
observations), and the expectation for increasing downslope
warming/drying. Forecast consensus is that RH minimums will reach
the mid teens Sunday afternoon, but given preceding days of
single-digit RH minimums and little to no moisture recovery
expected, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-15% range
across eastern NM and western TX.
The combination of very strong winds and dry conditions will support
widespread critical conditions. Localized areas of extremely
critical conditions appear possible across eastern NM and far
western TX; however, ensemble probabilities for sustained 30+ mph
winds remain limited - likely owing to the late arrival of the
mid-level jet just past peak heating. Regardless, receptive fuels
are already in place across much of the region based on increasing
ERC values and recent fire activity, and will support the fire
weather concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska and far northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251801Z - 252000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move east-northeastward across southern and southeastern NE this
afternoon. Hail up to the size of 1" may accompany the strongest
updrafts.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery early this afternoon shows an increase in
moist convection developing along and ahead of a cold front
extending north-northeast to south-southwest across portions of
central and southern NE. Convergence along this boundary, in
addition to a subtle mid-level shortwave perturbation, are resulting
in enhanced lift across this region. Although surface based
instability is limited, an elevated warm layer and cold temperatures
above it in the mid to upper levels are contributing to MUCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg. Effective deep layer shear through this
afternoon near 30-40 kt will continue to support some organization
within the cluster of thunderstorms.
With some additional, slow destabilization expected throughout the
afternoon a few of the more robust updrafts will be capable of
producing hail up to 1". However, the overall severe threat should
remain low/isolated given the aforementioned environment and
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. A watch is not anticipated at
this time.
..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40319893 40849878 41299859 41629729 41449628 40479620
40079626 39769671 39529732 39499795 39509835 39999859
40319893
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday.
A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will
drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi
Valleys.
...Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley...
Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along
potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a
weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface
low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.
...Oklahoma...
The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of
central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. The main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.
...Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country...
Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated
development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.
..Wendt.. 04/25/2026
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