MD 0514 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Areas affected...north-central Oklahoma into southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140...
Valid 240450Z - 240645Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140
continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind, hail, and brief tornado
potential persists from north-central into northeast Oklahoma, and
eventually into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely merged into a
linear/bowing structure this evening, with aggregating outflows and
a cold front pushing in from the north. While the surface air mass
has become cooler, substantial instability remains for elevated
parcels feeding into this system. Strong low-level shear exists with
50-60 kt at or above 925 mb, which will continue to feed this
complex.
Deep-layer shear is generally parallel to the orientation of this
line, however, periodic bowing structures may persist across the
area, with mesocyclones still possible. Damaging gusts, areas of
hail, and even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out next several
hours given such strong shear and ample moisture/instability.
..Jewell.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36389761 36719594 37409482 37899427 37869371 37309335
36709340 36179383 36019505 35969604 35959715 36019756
36259770 36389761
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad, large-scale upper level trough will be anchored near the
international border over the central US through the weekend. To the
east, the prevailing upper-level ridge will collapse on Day
2/Saturday as an approaching mid-level shortwave trough triggers
widespread precipitation over the Midwest and Appalachians. This
change is expected to provide some relief to the critically dry
fuels over these regions. However, for areas bypassed by appreciable
rainfall (especially east of the southern Appalachians), the fire
risk posed by lingering drought conditions will persist.
...Southern Plains into portions of the Southwest...
Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the Southwest on
Saturday, sustaining very breezy and dry conditions. Following
several consecutive days of heightened fire weather, the fuel
environment remains highly stressed, especially over northern
extents of the drawn area. Westerly downslope winds of 15-20 mph
will coincide with relative humidity values of 10-20% over receptive
fuels, further aggravating the fire risk. Consequently, an Elevated
area exists for Day 2/Saturday across much of New Mexico, southeast
Arizona, and portions of west Texas where fuels are receptive. While
the dryline is expected to surge farther east across
southwest/central Texas, fuel conditions near and south/east of
Midland appear to be less receptive overall. However, this event
will work to dry fuels over this region and may promote future risk
across this area.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.
While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.
...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge situated over the eastern U.S. is expected to
dampen, giving way to a predominantly zonal flow pattern across the
southern tier of the CONUS. Simultaneously, a broad upper-level
trough will remain anchored over the north-central U.S. near the
international border. This setup will maintain a very breezy and
persistently arid environment through the conclusion of the work
week across the Southwest and the central/southern High Plains.
...Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions have been highlighted for the
Colorado Rockies and the neighboring High Plains, where latest
forecast guidance indicates a high likelihood of potent winds
coupled with low humidity. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado will further enhance downslope winds along the
Front Range, while southwesterly winds prevail across the eastern
plains. Robust vertical mixing during peak heating is forecast to
descend 15-25 mph sustained winds to the surface. When combined with
relative humidity levels falling to 10-15% (and locally into the
single digits), these conditions will impact exceptionally dry fuels
already stressed by a multi-day stretch of fire weather activity.
While increasing cloud cover late in the day may offer some minor
mitigation of the threat before dusk, the fire environment remains
heightened. Consequently, Elevated highlights include much of the
Southwest and include the Four Corners region through western
Colorado. In these areas, westerly winds of 15-20 mph and humidity
levels below 20% will coincide with ERCs reaching the 75th to 90th
percentile.
...Carolinas...
As the eastern CONUS ridge breaks down, breezy westerly surface
winds (remaining under 10 mph sustained) can be expected over much
of the Carolinas today. While these conditions will not meet
criteria for elevated conditions, continued offshore flow will
likely result in RHs falling below 20% amid above-normal
temperatures over already dry fuels, keeping the fire environment
primed.
..Stearns/Moore.. 04/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.
In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.
...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and
boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.
At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.
Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
Arkansas.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.
In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.
In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.
...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and
boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.
At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.
Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
Arkansas.
..Kerr.. 04/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern
Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong
wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow
remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an
outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and
lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will
move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is
expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of
tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in
the line.
Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into
far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate
during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level
convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move
southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the
late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near
3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with
supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line
segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front,
a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley
northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to
weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level
convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the
front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead
of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern
Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong
wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow
remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an
outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and
lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will
move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is
expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of
tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in
the line.
Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into
far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate
during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level
convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move
southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the
late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near
3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with
supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line
segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front,
a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley
northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to
weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level
convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the
front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead
of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026
Read more
WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BVO TO
10 SSW JLN TO 60 SSW SZL.
..THOMPSON..04/24/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-240640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
MOC009-039-057-097-109-119-145-185-240640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CEDAR DADE
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON ST. CLAIR
OKC001-021-035-037-041-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-131-143-
145-147-240640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNU
TO 30 S OJC TO 10 ESE MKC TO 35 NNW SZL TO 10 SSW CDJ TO 20 N CDJ
TO 35 NW IRK TO 15 NNW OTM TO 40 W CID TO 30 NNW CID.
..JEWELL..04/24/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 138
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-123-135-157-179-240440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS MAHASKA
MONROE POWESHIEK WAPELLO
KSC107-240440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINN
MOC013-033-037-041-079-083-095-101-107-115-117-171-195-197-211-
240440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CARROLL CASS
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening from the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid
Missouri Valley, and upper Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts will be possible.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Upper
Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move through the central Rockies this
morning, and into the High Plains this afternoon as a 50 to 60 knot
mid-level jet moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley and
central Plains. Moisture advection ahead of the front will increase
surface dewpoints into the mid 60s F by afternoon. This will
contribute to moderate destabilization as surface temperatures warm
along the moist axis. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop
ahead of the front over the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi
Valleys in the early to mid afternoon. Convective coverage will
rapidly expand southward into eastern Kansas by late afternoon, and
into far northern Oklahoma during the early to mid evening. MCS
development appears likely to take place along and ahead of the
front.
The best environment for severe storms will be in eastern Kansas. In
this area, RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon ahead of the
front have MLCAPE peaking just above 3000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment will support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In
addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase
into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range by 00Z, as at 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet strengthens. This will support tornadoes with
supercells. Supercells will initially be discrete but a line is
expected to form by early evening. As the line forms, rotating cells
within the line should also be capable of producing tornadoes. A
strong tornado or two will be possible late this afternoon and early
this evening. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The
southern edge of the line will impact far northern Oklahoma in the
early to mid evening. Convective coverage should be isolated further
south across the rest of Oklahoma.
Further north-northeast into Iowa and southern Minnesota,
instability will not be as strong. RAP forecast soundings by late
afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. This,
combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear and 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km should support large hail with
supercells. Supercells and developing line segments should also be
capable of producing wind damage, hail and a tornado or two.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/23/2026
Read more
MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Areas affected...northern Nebraska into much of central South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230006Z - 230300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly producing damaging gusts,
are expected to develop this evening from parts of northern Nebraska
across central South Dakota. It is uncertain whether coverage of
severe tonight will necessitate a watch.
DISCUSSION...High-based storms have recently produced several
measured severe gusts over west-central SD, though this activity is
rather disorganized. These storms are near a impressive dryline
where a warm and very dry boundary layer exists.
Visible imagery shows substantial CU still developing along the
dryline across west-central NE, with isolated thunderstorms
developing over Cherry County. Meanwhile, surface observations
indicate dewpoints currently rising into the 40s F in that area,
with 50 or above from LBF south.
As the upper trough moves into the northern High Plains through
early tonight, height falls as well as an increasing low-level jet
to over 50 kt will likely support additional thunderstorms, mainly
from northern NE into central SD. There is some uncertainty how
severe this activity may be as the boundary layer cools and
convective inhibition increases. However, the steep lapse rate
environment combined with increasing lift and moisture may yield at
least a marginal severe wind gust threat.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42080010 41970064 41860180 42120220 42740231 43950188
45010119 45280046 45039913 44149819 42489867 42080010
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
across parts of the central and northern Plains this evening into
tonight.
...Central and Northern Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the northern Rockies,
with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Desert Southwest
into the northern Plains. At the surface, a north-to-south oriented
trough is present across the High Plains. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the trough from northwest
Nebraska into west-central South Dakota. Additional storms are
ongoing in northeastern Montana to the west of a surface low. As the
low-level jet strengthens across the region tonight, continued
thunderstorm development is expected. A hail and wind-damage threat
will be possible along and near an axis of weak instability from
west-central Nebraska into far southern North Dakota. A wind-damage
threat will also be possible with storms currently ongoing in
northeast Montana.
..Broyles.. 04/23/2026
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will persist over the central U.S. and
Canada border through Day 5/Sunday. Upper ridging across the eastern
U.S. will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday transitioning to fairly
zonal flow through the weekend. Much of the Piedmont into the
Southeast will remain fairly dry until a low-amplitude trough enters
the southwestern U.S on Day 4/Saturday and traverses the High Plains
early next week. This pattern change could bring some relief to the
central/southern Plains into portions of the Southeast Day
5/Sunday-Day 7/Tuesday. However, in areas that do not see
appreciable rainfall, fire weather concerns are expected to linger.
Towards the end of the forecast period, an additional low-amplitude
trough is forecast to move onshore the southwestern CONUS. Given the
overall pattern, fire weather conditions should persist where fuels
remain receptive.
...Day 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal
flow over the Southwest will promote very breezy and continued dry
conditions this weekend. With preceding days of fire weather
conditions, strong westerly downslope flow and critically low RH
atop very dry fuels will further exacerbate the fire environment,
supportive of 40% Critical probabilities across portions of the
southern Plains into the Southwest on Day 3/Friday and Day
4/Saturday.
A strong mid-level disturbance is forecast to cross over the High
Plains on Day 5/Sunday, resulting in lee cyclogenesis over portions
of western KS and northwestern OK. Behind an emerging dryline,
westerly downslope flow is expected to promote very strong winds and
critically low RH overlapping a dry fuelscape. Both 40% and 70%
Critical probabilities have been maintained over the southern Plains
and parts of West TX to encompass the expansive fire weather threat.
As the upper trough shifts east across the Midwest, a dry airmass
will persist over eastern AZ into NM early next week. While a brief
reprieve in winds is forecast for the Southwest on Day 6/Monday,
breezy conditions may return in advance of an approaching secondary
upper trough. Guidance ambiguity precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time, however, highlights may be introduced in
future outlooks as a result of the overall upper pattern.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
CORRECTED FOR TEXTUAL CLARITY
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from northern Oklahoma into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.
... Synopsis ...
A complex convective setup is expected on Thursday as a broad,
long-wave trough remains anchored across the Western US. While the
initial/primary shortwave will be lifting northward into Canada, a
secondary, lower amplitude wave is progged to approach the Southern
Plains overnight Thursday into Friday.
At the surface, a Pacific cold front and dryline will push eastward
into the Central Plains. A secondary surface low is forecast to
develop near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southwest
Kansas. This feature will serve as the southern extent of the more
organized severe threat, with a conditional threat southward along
the dryline.
... Central Plains ...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along an advancing cold
front/dryline across portions eastern Nebraska into western Iowa,
before expanding both north and south. MUCAPE values between
1500-2500 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40 knots will
support supercellular structures initially, but unidirectional
profiles may favor splitting supercells, storm interference, and a
tendency for upscale growth into one or more linear segments. While
a few tornadoes may be possible early in the convective evolution,
large hail and damaging winds should become the dominant threat with
time.
... Southern Plains ...
Convective initiation along the dryline south of the triple point
remains uncertain due to stronger capping. However, any discrete
cells that manage to initiate will do so in an environment
characterized by MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg with 30-40
knots of vertical shear. This will be more than sufficient to
support supercells capable of very large hail.
A secondary wave should approach the region overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. Forecast soundings indicate a steepening of midlevel
lapse rates associated with this feature and a subsequent increase
in CAPE values. Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms may develop
overnight. The severe potential of these storms is uncertain given
the overnight timing of the wave and increasing convective
inhibition. However, strong vertical shear would seem to support a
hail and wind threat.
... Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley ...
As the cold front pushes into the more modest moisture and buoyancy
profiles across northern Minnesota, the severe threat should be
lesser than areas to the south. Still, proximity to the upper wave
should support at least some threat for wind with any thunderstorms
that develop.
..Marsh.. 04/21/2026
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