SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Apr 21 07:40:01 UTC 2026
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 21 07:40:01 UTC 2026.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced, eastward progressing upper-level trough, accompanying 55-65 knot mid-level jet and deepening lee surface troughing over the High Plains will promote a broad fire weather threat across the central/southern High Plains and portions of the Southwest Wednesday. A surface trough and associated frontal boundary will traverse the Southern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic regions. Increased southwesterly flow south of the trough will contribute to fire weather concerns across the Mid Atlantic. ...Southwest into the Southern and North-Central Plains... A lee surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains as the robust mid-level trough advances into Intermountain West, with the associated mid-level jet moving over the Upper CO River Basin. An expansive fire weather concern will emerge across portions of the Southwest into the central and southern Plains as southwest winds accelerate beginning late Wednesday morning. Downslope enhanced southwest winds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts aligning with critically low relative humidity below 10% should be most pronounced across eastern WY/CO and into portions of northeastern NM and adjacent TX/OK Panhandle areas, where Critical Highlights were introduced. Locally extremely critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 30-35 mph and single digit RH are possible in favored terrain gaps along and east of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the CO Front Range where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. ...Piedmont and portions of Mid Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Carolinas and southern VA Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft and tighter surface pressure gradients will support increasing winds and downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph along with RH falling to 20-30% during peak heating will align with a receptive fuelscape to promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated Highlights were expanded slightly northward and eastward based on latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 04/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced, eastward progressing upper-level trough, accompanying 55-65 knot mid-level jet and deepening lee surface troughing over the High Plains will promote a broad fire weather threat across the central/southern High Plains and portions of the Southwest Wednesday. A surface trough and associated frontal boundary will traverse the Southern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic regions. Increased southwesterly flow south of the trough will contribute to fire weather concerns across the Mid Atlantic. ...Southwest into the Southern and North-Central Plains... A lee surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains as the robust mid-level trough advances into Intermountain West, with the associated mid-level jet moving over the Upper CO River Basin. An expansive fire weather concern will emerge across portions of the Southwest into the central and southern Plains as southwest winds accelerate beginning late Wednesday morning. Downslope enhanced southwest winds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts aligning with critically low relative humidity below 10% should be most pronounced across eastern WY/CO and into portions of northeastern NM and adjacent TX/OK Panhandle areas, where Critical Highlights were introduced. Locally extremely critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 30-35 mph and single digit RH are possible in favored terrain gaps along and east of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the CO Front Range where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread. ...Piedmont and portions of Mid Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions ahead of an approaching trough and associated cold front will bring a fire weather threat to portions of the Carolinas and southern VA Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft and tighter surface pressure gradients will support increasing winds and downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians. West to southwest winds of 10-20 mph along with RH falling to 20-30% during peak heating will align with a receptive fuelscape to promote several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Elevated Highlights were expanded slightly northward and eastward based on latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 04/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 21, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains. ... Synopsis ... A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning. Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances with northward extent. ... Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana... By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline. Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g., closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal. ... Southern High Plains ... Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops. ..Marsh.. 04/21/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions of the High Plains. ... Synopsis ... A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning. Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances with northward extent. ... Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana... By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline. Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g., closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal. ... Southern High Plains ... Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops. ..Marsh.. 04/21/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 21, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will move into the Plains as an upper trough moves inland over the West, with a strong cyclonic speed max moving across CA and into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Farther south, a weakening disturbance will move out of TX and toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the eastern states and across the Gulf Coast. Southerly winds across the Plains and around this high may support mid to upper 50s F dewpoints as far north as IA and IL by 00Z, while higher dewpoints remain relegated to southern TX. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early on Tuesday where weak elevated instability will remain. ...IL/IN/OH... A surface trough is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern IL by late afternoon, beneath the northwest flow regime and with cool midlevel temperatures. Southwest surface winds and daytime heating should lead to 40s and 50s F dewpoints, with a relatively dry boundary layer overall. Models suggest at least isolated late day and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of this trough, though instability levels are uncertain. Despite marginal dewpoints/moisture, the cool temperatures aloft may support a few cells capable of small hail from IL into IN by late afternoon. Wind gust potential is more uncertain and dependent on storm coverage/outflow production, with the dry boundary layer conditionally helping strong gust potential into the evening and perhaps overnight. ...Central CA... Cold temperatures aloft north of the midlevel jet will support weak instability over parts of the central Valleys. Given early precipitation and clouds, as well as marginal low-level shear, severe storms appear unlikely. However, a few strong storms may occur late in the afternoon if sufficient heating occurs behind the early day rain. Small hail appears most probable with the strongest cells. ..Jewell.. 04/21/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected today over much of Texas, from Illinois into Ohio, and over portions of central California. Severe weather is not currently forecast. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will move into the Plains as an upper trough moves inland over the West, with a strong cyclonic speed max moving across CA and into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Farther south, a weakening disturbance will move out of TX and toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the eastern states and across the Gulf Coast. Southerly winds across the Plains and around this high may support mid to upper 50s F dewpoints as far north as IA and IL by 00Z, while higher dewpoints remain relegated to southern TX. Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early on Tuesday where weak elevated instability will remain. ...IL/IN/OH... A surface trough is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern IL by late afternoon, beneath the northwest flow regime and with cool midlevel temperatures. Southwest surface winds and daytime heating should lead to 40s and 50s F dewpoints, with a relatively dry boundary layer overall. Models suggest at least isolated late day and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of this trough, though instability levels are uncertain. Despite marginal dewpoints/moisture, the cool temperatures aloft may support a few cells capable of small hail from IL into IN by late afternoon. Wind gust potential is more uncertain and dependent on storm coverage/outflow production, with the dry boundary layer conditionally helping strong gust potential into the evening and perhaps overnight. ...Central CA... Cold temperatures aloft north of the midlevel jet will support weak instability over parts of the central Valleys. Given early precipitation and clouds, as well as marginal low-level shear, severe storms appear unlikely. However, a few strong storms may occur late in the afternoon if sufficient heating occurs behind the early day rain. Small hail appears most probable with the strongest cells. ..Jewell.. 04/21/2026 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE WEST FLORIDA COAST... ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of Northeast and Mid Atlantic in the wake of a departing upper-trough. A dry airmass will remain in place across the eastern U.S., Southeast and Deep South as surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic. Farther west, a negatively-tilted upper trough will surge into the Western U.S., with dry and breezy conditions focused over the Great Basin ahead of an advancing cold front. ...Florida into Southern Georgia... East to northeast winds of 10-15 mph on the southern fringe of the surface high are expected today across portions of southern GA into FL. Stronger sustained east winds of 15 mph (with higher gusts) will be located farther south across the FL Peninsula, while drier conditions including relative humidity as low as 15% amid higher temperatures in the lower 80s will be displaced to the north over the FL Panhandle and southern GA. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of central FL and the West FL Coast where sustained winds are likely to reach 15 mph and RH falls into the 25-35% range. Elevated fire weather concerns were extended into much of the FL Panhandle where offshore trajectories will maintain a dry boundary layer through much of the afternoon. Fuels remain very receptive amid worsening drought conditions with ongoing fire activity. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... A relative minimum in recent rainfall and existing dry fuels coupled with dry return flow on the western periphery of the broad surface high pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic, will bring a fire weather threat to portions of western TN/MS and eastern AR. South to southwest winds of 10-15 mph amid relative humidity of 20-25% supports a continuation of Elevated fire weather highlights across portions of the lower MS River Valley. ...East-Central Wyoming... A limited fire weather threat will emerge across east-central WY with a weak downslope warming and drying regime in place across the central High Plains. A shallow near-surface temperature inversion will quickly mix out under mostly sunny skies through the late morning hours, following possible poor RH recoveries overnight in eastern WY/CO. RH of 10% or below is likely by the afternoon across the central High Plains. However, weak boundary layer flow and lack of substantial surface lee troughing across the region should limit spatial extent and duration of sustained west winds of up to 15 mph across east-central WY, precluding introduction of Elevated Highlights. ..Williams.. 04/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE WEST FLORIDA COAST... ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of Northeast and Mid Atlantic in the wake of a departing upper-trough. A dry airmass will remain in place across the eastern U.S., Southeast and Deep South as surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic. Farther west, a negatively-tilted upper trough will surge into the Western U.S., with dry and breezy conditions focused over the Great Basin ahead of an advancing cold front. ...Florida into Southern Georgia... East to northeast winds of 10-15 mph on the southern fringe of the surface high are expected today across portions of southern GA into FL. Stronger sustained east winds of 15 mph (with higher gusts) will be located farther south across the FL Peninsula, while drier conditions including relative humidity as low as 15% amid higher temperatures in the lower 80s will be displaced to the north over the FL Panhandle and southern GA. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of central FL and the West FL Coast where sustained winds are likely to reach 15 mph and RH falls into the 25-35% range. Elevated fire weather concerns were extended into much of the FL Panhandle where offshore trajectories will maintain a dry boundary layer through much of the afternoon. Fuels remain very receptive amid worsening drought conditions with ongoing fire activity. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... A relative minimum in recent rainfall and existing dry fuels coupled with dry return flow on the western periphery of the broad surface high pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic, will bring a fire weather threat to portions of western TN/MS and eastern AR. South to southwest winds of 10-15 mph amid relative humidity of 20-25% supports a continuation of Elevated fire weather highlights across portions of the lower MS River Valley. ...East-Central Wyoming... A limited fire weather threat will emerge across east-central WY with a weak downslope warming and drying regime in place across the central High Plains. A shallow near-surface temperature inversion will quickly mix out under mostly sunny skies through the late morning hours, following possible poor RH recoveries overnight in eastern WY/CO. RH of 10% or below is likely by the afternoon across the central High Plains. However, weak boundary layer flow and lack of substantial surface lee troughing across the region should limit spatial extent and duration of sustained west winds of up to 15 mph across east-central WY, precluding introduction of Elevated Highlights. ..Williams.. 04/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 21, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist across central and southern TX this evening, where southerly 850 mb winds are aiding lift/warm advection atop the relatively cool boundary layer. In addition, a weak wave aloft is moving across the southern Plains. As such, storms may increase in coverage through tonight, expanding into northern and eastern TX. Effective shear will remain weak especially over northern areas, and severe storms are not expected. Elsewhere, showers will generally decrease over far southern FL with the loss of heating. Farther west, an isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out over parts of the WA/OR Cascades as an offshore upper trough slowly pushes east. ..Jewell.. 04/21/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist across central and southern TX this evening, where southerly 850 mb winds are aiding lift/warm advection atop the relatively cool boundary layer. In addition, a weak wave aloft is moving across the southern Plains. As such, storms may increase in coverage through tonight, expanding into northern and eastern TX. Effective shear will remain weak especially over northern areas, and severe storms are not expected. Elsewhere, showers will generally decrease over far southern FL with the loss of heating. Farther west, an isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out over parts of the WA/OR Cascades as an offshore upper trough slowly pushes east. ..Jewell.. 04/21/2026 Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day 3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S. through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern. ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH are forecast to overlap dry fuels. A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry fuels. ...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday... As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day 3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S. through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern. ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH are forecast to overlap dry fuels. A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry fuels. ...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday... As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 20 20:56:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 20 20:56:02 UTC 2026.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 20 20:56:02 UTC 2026
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 20 20:56:02 UTC 2026.
SPC Apr 20, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The TSTM area over the coast of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic was removed, as large-scale forcing for ascent and related thunderstorm activity has shifted offshore. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Weinman.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The TSTM area over the coast of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic was removed, as large-scale forcing for ascent and related thunderstorm activity has shifted offshore. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Weinman.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will begin to move into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A shortwave trough will eject into the northern Plains in association with the broader trough. At the surface, a deep surface low will develop in eastern Montana with a lee trough/dryline extending into the southern High Plains. ...High Plains... As the upper-trough approaches the Rockies, the lee trough and dryline are expected to sharpen. Forcing for ascent will be strongest in the Nebraska Panhandle/western South Dakota vicinity. This area is also has the largest variability in terms of moisture return (the NAM being much more bullish than the ECMWF). Farther south, moisture will generally be greater. Guidance is in agreement that 60s F dewpoints are probable in the Texas South Plains and perhaps parts of the Panhandle. The issue farther south will be the lack of synoptic ascent. Temperatures behind the dryline will be in the upper 80s F to perhaps low 90s F. The depth of the circulation may be enough to initiate an isolated storm or two, but confidence is still not overly high. Environmentally, deep-layer shear will be oriented roughly perpendicular to the dryline, especially from western Kansas southward. Supercells would be favored if storms develop. MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg in South Dakota to 1500-2500 J/kg farther south is expected by the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ...Central/Easter Montana... With the surface low deepening through the day, at least modest moisture return northwestward is anticipated into central/eastern Montana. However, moisture will still be quite scant across the region. Dewpoints may not reach the 40s F. Given the forcing for ascent, high-based convection is possible. The very dry sub-cloud layers could lead to gusty outflow winds. At present, confidence in severe gusts is too low to warrant wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop during the late afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will begin to move into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A shortwave trough will eject into the northern Plains in association with the broader trough. At the surface, a deep surface low will develop in eastern Montana with a lee trough/dryline extending into the southern High Plains. ...High Plains... As the upper-trough approaches the Rockies, the lee trough and dryline are expected to sharpen. Forcing for ascent will be strongest in the Nebraska Panhandle/western South Dakota vicinity. This area is also has the largest variability in terms of moisture return (the NAM being much more bullish than the ECMWF). Farther south, moisture will generally be greater. Guidance is in agreement that 60s F dewpoints are probable in the Texas South Plains and perhaps parts of the Panhandle. The issue farther south will be the lack of synoptic ascent. Temperatures behind the dryline will be in the upper 80s F to perhaps low 90s F. The depth of the circulation may be enough to initiate an isolated storm or two, but confidence is still not overly high. Environmentally, deep-layer shear will be oriented roughly perpendicular to the dryline, especially from western Kansas southward. Supercells would be favored if storms develop. MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg in South Dakota to 1500-2500 J/kg farther south is expected by the afternoon. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. ...Central/Easter Montana... With the surface low deepening through the day, at least modest moisture return northwestward is anticipated into central/eastern Montana. However, moisture will still be quite scant across the region. Dewpoints may not reach the 40s F. Given the forcing for ascent, high-based convection is possible. The very dry sub-cloud layers could lead to gusty outflow winds. At present, confidence in severe gusts is too low to warrant wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Mid-South... As an upper trough exits the Eastern Seaboard and the pattern transitions to upper-level ridging, 20-30 kt south-southwesterly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients will promote dry and breezy conditions for portions of the Mid-Mississippi valley on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and low RH values of 20-30 percent amid drying fuels are supportive of a fire weather threat, thus Elevated highlights have been introduced. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually slide east over the Great Plains on D2/Tuesday as a closed upper-level low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Southeast while a frontal system advances across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Portions of Florida into southern Georgia... Sustained easterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southeastern periphery of high pressure building into the Southeast will overlap reduced RH of 20-30% across much of the Florida Peninsula and into southern Georgia Tuesday afternoon. Continued dry conditions amid extreme to exceptional drought continues to promote receptive fuels across this region, with ERCs currently at or above the 95th percentile. This combination is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns for at least a few hours. While winds are currently forecast to remain below critical criteria, locally critical conditions may be possible given the dryness/receptiveness of fuels and potential for occasional wind gusts to 20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Mid-South... As an upper trough exits the Eastern Seaboard and the pattern transitions to upper-level ridging, 20-30 kt south-southwesterly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients will promote dry and breezy conditions for portions of the Mid-Mississippi valley on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and low RH values of 20-30 percent amid drying fuels are supportive of a fire weather threat, thus Elevated highlights have been introduced. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually slide east over the Great Plains on D2/Tuesday as a closed upper-level low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Southeast while a frontal system advances across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Portions of Florida into southern Georgia... Sustained easterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southeastern periphery of high pressure building into the Southeast will overlap reduced RH of 20-30% across much of the Florida Peninsula and into southern Georgia Tuesday afternoon. Continued dry conditions amid extreme to exceptional drought continues to promote receptive fuels across this region, with ERCs currently at or above the 95th percentile. This combination is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns for at least a few hours. While winds are currently forecast to remain below critical criteria, locally critical conditions may be possible given the dryness/receptiveness of fuels and potential for occasional wind gusts to 20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Mid-South... As an upper trough exits the Eastern Seaboard and the pattern transitions to upper-level ridging, 20-30 kt south-southwesterly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients will promote dry and breezy conditions for portions of the Mid-Mississippi valley on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and low RH values of 20-30 percent amid drying fuels are supportive of a fire weather threat, thus Elevated highlights have been introduced. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually slide east over the Great Plains on D2/Tuesday as a closed upper-level low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Southeast while a frontal system advances across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Portions of Florida into southern Georgia... Sustained easterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southeastern periphery of high pressure building into the Southeast will overlap reduced RH of 20-30% across much of the Florida Peninsula and into southern Georgia Tuesday afternoon. Continued dry conditions amid extreme to exceptional drought continues to promote receptive fuels across this region, with ERCs currently at or above the 95th percentile. This combination is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns for at least a few hours. While winds are currently forecast to remain below critical criteria, locally critical conditions may be possible given the dryness/receptiveness of fuels and potential for occasional wind gusts to 20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Mid-South... As an upper trough exits the Eastern Seaboard and the pattern transitions to upper-level ridging, 20-30 kt south-southwesterly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients will promote dry and breezy conditions for portions of the Mid-Mississippi valley on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and low RH values of 20-30 percent amid drying fuels are supportive of a fire weather threat, thus Elevated highlights have been introduced. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually slide east over the Great Plains on D2/Tuesday as a closed upper-level low moves onshore across the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Southeast while a frontal system advances across the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Portions of Florida into southern Georgia... Sustained easterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southeastern periphery of high pressure building into the Southeast will overlap reduced RH of 20-30% across much of the Florida Peninsula and into southern Georgia Tuesday afternoon. Continued dry conditions amid extreme to exceptional drought continues to promote receptive fuels across this region, with ERCs currently at or above the 95th percentile. This combination is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns for at least a few hours. While winds are currently forecast to remain below critical criteria, locally critical conditions may be possible given the dryness/receptiveness of fuels and potential for occasional wind gusts to 20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low. The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri is far more conditional. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas. Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential. ...California Central Valley... After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be limited by weak deep-layer shear. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low. The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri is far more conditional. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas. Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential. ...California Central Valley... After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be limited by weak deep-layer shear. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low. The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri is far more conditional. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas. Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential. ...California Central Valley... After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be limited by weak deep-layer shear. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes... Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low. The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri is far more conditional. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas... Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas. Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential. ...California Central Valley... After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be limited by weak deep-layer shear. ..Wendt.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Current surface observations depict widespread RH values of 10-30 percent across portions of the central/southern Plains owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries. Parts of the Southeast also experienced poor humidity recoveries, with current RH values in the upper 20s. Any new ignitions and ongoing wildfires in this region will experience elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon as northeasterly winds increase and RH decreases atop exceptionally dry fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually shift eastward from the Rockies into the Plains through today as an upper-level trough departs the East Coast and a second, closed upper trough approaches the West Coast. Surface high pressure will shift east over the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic while a lee trough deepens along the central/northern High Plains. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A deepening lee trough along the central High Plains will support strengthening westerly downslope winds to the west of the trough axis across portions of southeastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and much of western/central Nebraska. Farther south/east, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley in conjunction with the lee trough will yield a tightened surface pressure gradient and strengthening southerly winds from the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected within both of these regimes. RH minimums of 10-15% (locally lower) are expected across southeast Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and western Nebraska where downslope wind will depress moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Farther south/east, the northern fringe of returning moisture may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH minimums are still forecast to fall to 15-25% southeastern Colorado northeastward into south-central Nebraska. With dry, receptive fuels across much of the region, this will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon. Locally critical conditions will also be possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in southeastern Wyoming where winds may occasionally gust to 30-35 mph. ...Portions of the Southeast... A dry air mass will continue to reside across much of the Southeast where fuels remain exceptionally dry (ERCs above the 95th percentile) amid continuing drought. Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern periphery of surface high pressure are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 15-25% across much of the Florida Panhandle and adjacent areas of southern Alabama/Georgia. Farther north, modest westerly/northwesterly downslope winds of 10-15 mph are forecast behind a dry, secondary cold frontal passage, with minimum RH of 20-30% (locally lower) expected. This combination of winds/RH is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns across much of the Southeast this afternoon. ...Portions of New Mexico into eastern Arizona... Low to mid-level moisture return is forecast across southern Texas into portions of the Southwest through this afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will remain modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of localized orographic ascent, deeply mixed boundary layers with minimal inhibition, and a weak, subtle mid-level shortwave trough will support isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. Slow storm motions (around 10 kts) will likely support pockets of wetting precipitation, but PWAT values of 0.4-0.7" atop a dry sub-cloud layer will likely support dry lightning strikes while largely limiting precipitation. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile, lightning ignitions appear possible. While prevailing flow is forecast to remain weak, gusty outflow winds may create erratic fire behavior with any new ignitions. ...Portions of the Upper Midwest... A tightened surface pressure gradient will promote sustained southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph, with the potential for gusts to 30-35 mph, across portions of the Upper Midwest, especially across the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota. RH values are forecast to fall to 25-30% this afternoon, with lower values possible should forecast cloud cover clear more quickly this morning/afternoon. This combination of wind/RH may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon, especially in pockets of drier fine fuels. Recent precipitation across portions of this area along with marginal fuel receptiveness and uncertainty regarding cloud cover preclude the addition of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. Current surface observations depict widespread RH values of 10-30 percent across portions of the central/southern Plains owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries. Parts of the Southeast also experienced poor humidity recoveries, with current RH values in the upper 20s. Any new ignitions and ongoing wildfires in this region will experience elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon as northeasterly winds increase and RH decreases atop exceptionally dry fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will gradually shift eastward from the Rockies into the Plains through today as an upper-level trough departs the East Coast and a second, closed upper trough approaches the West Coast. Surface high pressure will shift east over the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic while a lee trough deepens along the central/northern High Plains. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A deepening lee trough along the central High Plains will support strengthening westerly downslope winds to the west of the trough axis across portions of southeastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and much of western/central Nebraska. Farther south/east, high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley in conjunction with the lee trough will yield a tightened surface pressure gradient and strengthening southerly winds from the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity northeastward into central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph are expected within both of these regimes. RH minimums of 10-15% (locally lower) are expected across southeast Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and western Nebraska where downslope wind will depress moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Farther south/east, the northern fringe of returning moisture may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH minimums are still forecast to fall to 15-25% southeastern Colorado northeastward into south-central Nebraska. With dry, receptive fuels across much of the region, this will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon. Locally critical conditions will also be possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in southeastern Wyoming where winds may occasionally gust to 30-35 mph. ...Portions of the Southeast... A dry air mass will continue to reside across much of the Southeast where fuels remain exceptionally dry (ERCs above the 95th percentile) amid continuing drought. Sustained northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph along the southern periphery of surface high pressure are forecast to overlap minimum RH values of 15-25% across much of the Florida Panhandle and adjacent areas of southern Alabama/Georgia. Farther north, modest westerly/northwesterly downslope winds of 10-15 mph are forecast behind a dry, secondary cold frontal passage, with minimum RH of 20-30% (locally lower) expected. This combination of winds/RH is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns across much of the Southeast this afternoon. ...Portions of New Mexico into eastern Arizona... Low to mid-level moisture return is forecast across southern Texas into portions of the Southwest through this afternoon. Although forcing for ascent will remain modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of localized orographic ascent, deeply mixed boundary layers with minimal inhibition, and a weak, subtle mid-level shortwave trough will support isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. Slow storm motions (around 10 kts) will likely support pockets of wetting precipitation, but PWAT values of 0.4-0.7" atop a dry sub-cloud layer will likely support dry lightning strikes while largely limiting precipitation. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile, lightning ignitions appear possible. While prevailing flow is forecast to remain weak, gusty outflow winds may create erratic fire behavior with any new ignitions. ...Portions of the Upper Midwest... A tightened surface pressure gradient will promote sustained southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph, with the potential for gusts to 30-35 mph, across portions of the Upper Midwest, especially across the eastern Dakotas and much of Minnesota. RH values are forecast to fall to 25-30% this afternoon, with lower values possible should forecast cloud cover clear more quickly this morning/afternoon. This combination of wind/RH may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon, especially in pockets of drier fine fuels. Recent precipitation across portions of this area along with marginal fuel receptiveness and uncertainty regarding cloud cover preclude the addition of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. ..Hart/Flournoy.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. ..Hart/Flournoy.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. ..Hart/Flournoy.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An upper impulse will continue to pose a risk of scattered thunderstorms over parts of NM and south/west TX through the afternoon, with activity spreading into north-central TX late tonight. Other thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over south FL in a moist and marginally unstable air mass, along the coast of southern New England, and over portions of OR/WA. In all areas, weak instability will preclude the risk of organized severe storms. ..Hart/Flournoy.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak upper trough centered over AZ and Sonora moving east undercutting a ridge over the Rockies. This upper feature will move into the southern High Plains by late tonight. Farther west, a mid- to upper-level low will move slowly east from the eastern Pacific toward the CA/OR coast. Scattered showers and weak elevated storms will be possible across a large portion of TX today. Farther west, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in association with the weak upper trough over parts of the Desert Southwest. Primarily diurnal storm activity over the southern FL Peninsula is expected, as well as isolated late day thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will lead to tranquil conditions across much of the CONUS precluding storm development. ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak upper trough centered over AZ and Sonora moving east undercutting a ridge over the Rockies. This upper feature will move into the southern High Plains by late tonight. Farther west, a mid- to upper-level low will move slowly east from the eastern Pacific toward the CA/OR coast. Scattered showers and weak elevated storms will be possible across a large portion of TX today. Farther west, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in association with the weak upper trough over parts of the Desert Southwest. Primarily diurnal storm activity over the southern FL Peninsula is expected, as well as isolated late day thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will lead to tranquil conditions across much of the CONUS precluding storm development. ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/20/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 20, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak upper trough centered over AZ and Sonora moving east undercutting a ridge over the Rockies. This upper feature will move into the southern High Plains by late tonight. Farther west, a mid- to upper-level low will move slowly east from the eastern Pacific toward the CA/OR coast. Scattered showers and weak elevated storms will be possible across a large portion of TX today. Farther west, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in association with the weak upper trough over parts of the Desert Southwest. Primarily diurnal storm activity over the southern FL Peninsula is expected, as well as isolated late day thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will lead to tranquil conditions across much of the CONUS precluding storm development. ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak upper trough centered over AZ and Sonora moving east undercutting a ridge over the Rockies. This upper feature will move into the southern High Plains by late tonight. Farther west, a mid- to upper-level low will move slowly east from the eastern Pacific toward the CA/OR coast. Scattered showers and weak elevated storms will be possible across a large portion of TX today. Farther west, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in association with the weak upper trough over parts of the Desert Southwest. Primarily diurnal storm activity over the southern FL Peninsula is expected, as well as isolated late day thunderstorms over portions of the Cascades. Elsewhere, surface high pressure will lead to tranquil conditions across much of the CONUS precluding storm development. ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/20/2026 Read more
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