Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into central High Plains. ...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians... Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg. As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into night. That being said, storm development appears most probable along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps western OH Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs. The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is possible. ...Central High Plains... Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms. ...Southeast Arizona... Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the higher terrain closer to the international border within a relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with an associated risk of severe wind gusts. ..Mead.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and potentially some tornado risk are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into portions of Nebraska, mainly this afternoon into tonight. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the central Rockies and High Plains through the period. Seasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist, and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the central Plains. This will result in a conditionally favorable environment across a broad region, though with generally subtle forcing mechanisms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. Aside from any MCV influence on early-day convection, the most likely initiation zone for diurnal storm development currently appears to be from northern MN into WI, where one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may impinge upon the destabilizing environment. Initial supercell development would be possible in this area, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and potentially some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense southeastward-moving clusters with attendant severe-wind swaths would then be possible with time. However, some guidance remains relatively sparse with afternoon/evening development, resulting in uncertainty regarding coverage and favored corridors of potentially significant severe potential. Greater probabilities and an upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved later today. ...NE into adjacent parts of southeast SD and western IA... A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is expected from parts of central NE into southeast SD. Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures warm to near above 100 F and CINH is removed. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, despite rather warm temperatures aloft. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/GA/north FL... A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in midlevel northwesterly flow is expected with time from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized damaging-wind threat. ...Southern MT/northern WY into the Black Hills... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest relative coverage expected across parts of northern WY and southern MT. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms move eastward towards the Black Hills before weakening this evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and potentially some tornado risk are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into portions of Nebraska, mainly this afternoon into tonight. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the central Rockies and High Plains through the period. Seasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist, and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the central Plains. This will result in a conditionally favorable environment across a broad region, though with generally subtle forcing mechanisms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. Aside from any MCV influence on early-day convection, the most likely initiation zone for diurnal storm development currently appears to be from northern MN into WI, where one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may impinge upon the destabilizing environment. Initial supercell development would be possible in this area, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and potentially some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense southeastward-moving clusters with attendant severe-wind swaths would then be possible with time. However, some guidance remains relatively sparse with afternoon/evening development, resulting in uncertainty regarding coverage and favored corridors of potentially significant severe potential. Greater probabilities and an upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved later today. ...NE into adjacent parts of southeast SD and western IA... A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is expected from parts of central NE into southeast SD. Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures warm to near above 100 F and CINH is removed. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, despite rather warm temperatures aloft. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/GA/north FL... A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in midlevel northwesterly flow is expected with time from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized damaging-wind threat. ...Southern MT/northern WY into the Black Hills... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest relative coverage expected across parts of northern WY and southern MT. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms move eastward towards the Black Hills before weakening this evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and potentially some tornado risk are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into portions of Nebraska, mainly this afternoon into tonight. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the central Rockies and High Plains through the period. Seasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist, and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the central Plains. This will result in a conditionally favorable environment across a broad region, though with generally subtle forcing mechanisms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. Aside from any MCV influence on early-day convection, the most likely initiation zone for diurnal storm development currently appears to be from northern MN into WI, where one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may impinge upon the destabilizing environment. Initial supercell development would be possible in this area, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and potentially some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense southeastward-moving clusters with attendant severe-wind swaths would then be possible with time. However, some guidance remains relatively sparse with afternoon/evening development, resulting in uncertainty regarding coverage and favored corridors of potentially significant severe potential. Greater probabilities and an upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved later today. ...NE into adjacent parts of southeast SD and western IA... A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is expected from parts of central NE into southeast SD. Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures warm to near above 100 F and CINH is removed. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, despite rather warm temperatures aloft. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/GA/north FL... A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in midlevel northwesterly flow is expected with time from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized damaging-wind threat. ...Southern MT/northern WY into the Black Hills... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest relative coverage expected across parts of northern WY and southern MT. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms move eastward towards the Black Hills before weakening this evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and potentially some tornado risk are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into portions of Nebraska, mainly this afternoon into tonight. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... An upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the central Rockies and High Plains through the period. Seasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist, and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the central Plains. This will result in a conditionally favorable environment across a broad region, though with generally subtle forcing mechanisms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. Aside from any MCV influence on early-day convection, the most likely initiation zone for diurnal storm development currently appears to be from northern MN into WI, where one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may impinge upon the destabilizing environment. Initial supercell development would be possible in this area, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and potentially some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense southeastward-moving clusters with attendant severe-wind swaths would then be possible with time. However, some guidance remains relatively sparse with afternoon/evening development, resulting in uncertainty regarding coverage and favored corridors of potentially significant severe potential. Greater probabilities and an upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved later today. ...NE into adjacent parts of southeast SD and western IA... A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is expected from parts of central NE into southeast SD. Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures warm to near above 100 F and CINH is removed. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, despite rather warm temperatures aloft. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/GA/north FL... A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in midlevel northwesterly flow is expected with time from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized damaging-wind threat. ...Southern MT/northern WY into the Black Hills... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest relative coverage expected across parts of northern WY and southern MT. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms move eastward towards the Black Hills before weakening this evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 Read more

MD 1739 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...NORTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Areas affected...South-Central MN...North-Central IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515... Valid 260400Z - 260600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong gusts and isolated large hail remains across south-central Minnesota and north-central Iowa. DISCUSSION...Ongoing MCS has decayed significantly over the past hour, with the gust front now well ahead of the main body of precipitation. The gust front is likely deep enough to force new development, which appears to be occurring across Cottonwood County MN as well as Buena Vista County IA. Redevelopment along the gust front will allow for continued eastward/southeastward progression of the front, although it will likely slow over time as its depth and the strength of convection along it both decrease. Strong gusts will remain the primary threat. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong vertical shear could also support some isolated large hail within any redevelopment along the front. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43649554 44219513 44059382 43609314 42339322 42269442 42589552 43649554 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE DNS TO 25 W FRM TO 20 S RWF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 ..MOSIER..07/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC025-033-063-069-079-081-083-091-109-147-151-187-189-195-197- 260540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CERRO GORDO EMMET FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT MNC013-015-043-047-091-147-161-165-260540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN FARIBAULT FREEBORN MARTIN STEELE WASECA WATONWAN Read more

WW 515 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 260100Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 800 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast South Dakota will continue to track east-southeastward through the evening. Severe wind gusts are expected with the more intense cells, and the potential exists for significant wind damage if the thunderstorms can become better organized. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Worthington MN to 15 miles east of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1738 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515... FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST MN...FAR NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Areas affected...Extreme Southwest MN...Far Northwest IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515... Valid 260207Z - 260330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of significant wind gusts (75 to 90 mph) is possible over the next hour or so from extreme southwest Minnesota and far northwest Iowa. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster moving through southeast South Dakota has strengthened considerably over the past half hour, with a notable increase in forward speed (from around 30-35 kt to 45 kt) and numerous severe gusts across the Sioux Fall area. Sioux Fall ASOS (KFSD) has been measuring severe gusts for the past 30 minutes and a few personal weather stations have measured 70 to 80 mph. Environmental conditions downstream are favorable for maintenance of this bow echo as it moves through a region of extreme buoyancy and copious low-level moisture. Expectation is for corridor of significant wind gusts (75 to 90 mph) over the next hour or so from extreme southwest Minnesota and far northwest Iowa. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD... LAT...LON 43069714 43499702 43749678 43809645 43819617 43729549 43519524 43079527 42729573 42739627 42879682 43069714 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW COD TO 30 SSE 3HT TO 20 NNE MLS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 ..SQUITIERI..07/26/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-087-095-103-111-260240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON ROSEBUD STILLWATER TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW COD TO 30 SSE 3HT TO 20 NNE MLS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 ..SQUITIERI..07/26/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-087-095-103-111-260240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON ROSEBUD STILLWATER TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW COD TO 30 SSE 3HT TO 20 NNE MLS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 ..SQUITIERI..07/26/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-087-095-103-111-260240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON ROSEBUD STILLWATER TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more