Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will overspread the northern Plains by afternoon. Farther upstream, a significant short-wave trough will assume an increasing negative tilt while translating into the northern High Plains early Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cyclone linked with the lead short-wave trough will deepen while developing from southeast MT into western ND by afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated Pacific front will push east into the western Dakotas, with more of a dryline structure evident from southwest NE into the OK and TX Panhandles. ...Northern and Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley... An active severe-weather period is anticipated Tuesday afternoon into night, especially across the northern Plains, where all severe-weather hazards are possible. While the pre-frontal air mass over the western Dakotas is not expected to be overly moist with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong instability by mid to late afternoon. Some potential for early-day storms will exist in northern ND, within a zone of persistent warm advection. Additional, more intense thunderstorm activity is expected by mid afternoon from the southern fringe of the early-day convection south along the front as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the short-wave trough. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail initially. Some tornado threat could materialize during the evening hours as LCL heights lower and the low-level shear increases. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters, with an increasing risk for damaging winds spreading east through the Red River Valley. Farther south, a number of models develop isolated to widely scattered storms during the afternoon along the dryline in western KS amidst a marginally sheared, but moderate to strongly unstable environment. There is some signal that an MCS could evolve from that activity across the mid to lower MO Valley Tuesday evening. Only 5% total-severe probabilities will be added in those areas, due to uncertainty in that scenario. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will overspread the northern Plains by afternoon. Farther upstream, a significant short-wave trough will assume an increasing negative tilt while translating into the northern High Plains early Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cyclone linked with the lead short-wave trough will deepen while developing from southeast MT into western ND by afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated Pacific front will push east into the western Dakotas, with more of a dryline structure evident from southwest NE into the OK and TX Panhandles. ...Northern and Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley... An active severe-weather period is anticipated Tuesday afternoon into night, especially across the northern Plains, where all severe-weather hazards are possible. While the pre-frontal air mass over the western Dakotas is not expected to be overly moist with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong instability by mid to late afternoon. Some potential for early-day storms will exist in northern ND, within a zone of persistent warm advection. Additional, more intense thunderstorm activity is expected by mid afternoon from the southern fringe of the early-day convection south along the front as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the short-wave trough. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail initially. Some tornado threat could materialize during the evening hours as LCL heights lower and the low-level shear increases. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters, with an increasing risk for damaging winds spreading east through the Red River Valley. Farther south, a number of models develop isolated to widely scattered storms during the afternoon along the dryline in western KS amidst a marginally sheared, but moderate to strongly unstable environment. There is some signal that an MCS could evolve from that activity across the mid to lower MO Valley Tuesday evening. Only 5% total-severe probabilities will be added in those areas, due to uncertainty in that scenario. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Monday, and a shortwave trough will dig across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and the Southwestern CONUS with low RH in place and dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing during the afternoon with modest flow aloft is expected to result in winds of 20-30 mph along with RH near 5-15% for several hours across this region. Continued poor RH recovery overnight will contribute to dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical area is introduced across the area. Surrounding this is an Elevated area, where winds are generally expected to be near 15-20 mph with 5-15% RH and receptive fuels. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow may provide the lift for convective development Monday afternoon in the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer. Precipitable water and storm motions may be a bit marginal, but it appears a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity may occur, which warrants an Isolated Dry Thunder area. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Monday, and a shortwave trough will dig across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and the Southwestern CONUS with low RH in place and dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing during the afternoon with modest flow aloft is expected to result in winds of 20-30 mph along with RH near 5-15% for several hours across this region. Continued poor RH recovery overnight will contribute to dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical area is introduced across the area. Surrounding this is an Elevated area, where winds are generally expected to be near 15-20 mph with 5-15% RH and receptive fuels. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow may provide the lift for convective development Monday afternoon in the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer. Precipitable water and storm motions may be a bit marginal, but it appears a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity may occur, which warrants an Isolated Dry Thunder area. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Monday, and a shortwave trough will dig across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. This will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin and the Southwestern CONUS with low RH in place and dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing during the afternoon with modest flow aloft is expected to result in winds of 20-30 mph along with RH near 5-15% for several hours across this region. Continued poor RH recovery overnight will contribute to dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical area is introduced across the area. Surrounding this is an Elevated area, where winds are generally expected to be near 15-20 mph with 5-15% RH and receptive fuels. ...Central High Plains... Upslope flow may provide the lift for convective development Monday afternoon in the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer. Precipitable water and storm motions may be a bit marginal, but it appears a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity may occur, which warrants an Isolated Dry Thunder area. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ..Supinie.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies. Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX. ...Great Plains... With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge. There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon, beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday evening before the storms weaken. Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more model spread in the timing and location of storms through the forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above, no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with this forecast. Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and moderately unstable air mass. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies. Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX. ...Great Plains... With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge. There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon, beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday evening before the storms weaken. Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more model spread in the timing and location of storms through the forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above, no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with this forecast. Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and moderately unstable air mass. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies. Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX. ...Great Plains... With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge. There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon, beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday evening before the storms weaken. Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more model spread in the timing and location of storms through the forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above, no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with this forecast. Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and moderately unstable air mass. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow upscale into a line during the evening. At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself. As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely. Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts above 75 mph. ...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. ...Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow upscale into a line during the evening. At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself. As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely. Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts above 75 mph. ...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. ...Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected today across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas eastward across the Ozarks. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, mid-level heights will gradually fall across the northern Plains. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will deepen in the western Dakotas as a cold front advances eastward across the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints near the surface trough will be in the lower to mid 60s F which will enable moderate instability to develop around midday. During the afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front and further east near the surface trough as low-level convergence increases. Although cells will initially be discrete, convection is expected to grow upscale into a line during the evening. At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in western North Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant supercells may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Low-level shear may be strong enough for an isolated tornado threat as well. Supercells will be favored in the late afternoon when cells will likely be discrete. In the early evening, a quick transition to linear mode is expected, although rotating elements will continue to be possible in the line itself. As the line develops, severe wind gusts will become more likely. Intense parts of the line could be capable of producing wind gusts above 75 mph. ...Eastern Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the central U.S. today, over the top of a moist and unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints from eastern parts of the southern and central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Random areas of maximized low-level convergence are expected this afternoon which will lead to the formation of scattered thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear of 25 to 30 knots should be sufficient for isolated supercells. Storm-relative helicity could reach 200 m2/s2 in a few areas, which would support an isolated tornado threat. Strong wind gusts will also be possible with this threat extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The wind-damage threat will be greatest in the mid to late afternoon as low-level lapse rates become steep. ...Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop near and to the south of the front during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates will peak near 8 C/km, which should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/07/2026 Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MLS TO 40 S GGW TO 20 N OLF TO 90 NNE OLF. ..WENDT..06/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-109-070640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN WIBAUX NDC007-011-013-023-033-053-061-087-105-070640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE DIVIDE GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE MOUNTRAIL SLOPE WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MLS TO 40 S GGW TO 20 N OLF TO 90 NNE OLF. ..WENDT..06/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-109-070640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN WIBAUX NDC007-011-013-023-033-053-061-087-105-070640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE DIVIDE GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE MOUNTRAIL SLOPE WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MLS TO 40 S GGW TO 20 N OLF TO 90 NNE OLF. ..WENDT..06/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-109-070640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN WIBAUX NDC007-011-013-023-033-053-061-087-105-070640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE DIVIDE GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE MOUNTRAIL SLOPE WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 283 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 070035Z - 070800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 635 PM until 200 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A mix of high-based supercells and multicells should pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph this evening and through the early overnight hours as this activity moves northeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles south of Miles City MT to 70 miles north northeast of Wolf Point MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 281...WW 282... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MLS TO 80 NNW GGW. ..LYONS..06/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-105-109-070540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC007-011-013-023-033-053-061-087-105-070540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE DIVIDE GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE MOUNTRAIL SLOPE WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026 Areas affected...northeastern Montana and northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283... Valid 070254Z - 070500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue much of this evening into the overnight hours. Hail and damaging gusts are likely. Some significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph are possible. DISCUSSION...Across WW283, several strong to severe storms have developed and intensified along a sagging frontal zone over the last several hours. The environment along both sides of the front in MT and ND is strongly unstable, (max MUCAPE ~3000 J/kg) with steep mid-level lapse rates. Vertical shear is also quite robust (50-60 kt EBWD) as the main belt of 50+ kt mid-level flow continues to overspread the frontal zone. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will also aid in further intensification of the ongoing convection this evening and into the early overnight hours. Radar trends show the initial stages of upscale growth along the front are underway. As the storms interact, they should merge into organized clusters and possibly a bowing segment or two. This appears most likely near the boundary and northeastward where low-level convergence will be maximized. The strong buoyancy and kinematic parameter space will likely favor efficient downdrafts with the potential for a damaging wind threat late this evening into the early overnight period from northeastern MT, northwest ND toward the international border. Severe gusts, with a few significant gusts to 75+ mph are possible and supported by recent CAM solutions. Some hail risk may also remain with the more cellular elements. ..Lyons.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46440655 47270760 48050719 48660666 49100630 49080534 49070186 48970187 47490303 46030393 46440655 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more