SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern
MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave
impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave
impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread
east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These
features will provide support for one or more focused areas of
thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an
all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial
supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm
mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging
wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads
southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and
the Lake Michigan vicinity.
...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN.
Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave
impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower
OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a
corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River
where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in
temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further
east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm
clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development
into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio
Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been
increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.
This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight
hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and
sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts
could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast
across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.
...NE/SD/IA...
A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft
will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles
and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may
develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be
the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat
warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL...
Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some
enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool
conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke
will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support
occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging
gusts.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat
weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for
transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds
possible.
...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Leitman.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern
MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave
impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave
impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread
east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These
features will provide support for one or more focused areas of
thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an
all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial
supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm
mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging
wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads
southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and
the Lake Michigan vicinity.
...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN.
Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave
impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower
OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a
corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River
where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in
temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further
east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm
clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development
into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio
Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been
increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.
This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight
hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and
sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts
could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast
across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.
...NE/SD/IA...
A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft
will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles
and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may
develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be
the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat
warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL...
Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some
enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool
conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke
will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support
occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging
gusts.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat
weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for
transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds
possible.
...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Leitman.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern
MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave
impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave
impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread
east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These
features will provide support for one or more focused areas of
thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an
all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial
supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm
mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging
wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads
southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and
the Lake Michigan vicinity.
...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN.
Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave
impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower
OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a
corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River
where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in
temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further
east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm
clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development
into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio
Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been
increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.
This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight
hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and
sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts
could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast
across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.
...NE/SD/IA...
A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft
will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles
and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may
develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be
the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat
warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL...
Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some
enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool
conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke
will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support
occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging
gusts.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat
weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for
transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds
possible.
...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Leitman.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern
MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave
impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave
impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread
east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These
features will provide support for one or more focused areas of
thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an
all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial
supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm
mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging
wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads
southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and
the Lake Michigan vicinity.
...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN.
Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave
impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower
OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a
corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River
where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in
temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further
east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm
clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development
into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio
Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been
increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.
This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight
hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and
sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts
could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast
across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.
...NE/SD/IA...
A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft
will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles
and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may
develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be
the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat
warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL...
Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some
enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool
conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke
will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support
occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging
gusts.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat
weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for
transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds
possible.
...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Leitman.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Initial supercell storms are expected to develop across northern
MN/WI later this afternoon, aided by a favorably timed shortwave
impulse rounding the Plains upper ridge. Another MCV/shortwave
impulse located over the Dakotas at midday will also spread
east/southeast across southern/central MN this afternoon. These
features will provide support for one or more focused areas of
thunderstorm development. Initial supercells will pose an
all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. With time into the evening, initial
supercells may grow into one or two small bowing MCSs. This storm
mode transition will support an increased risk for intense damaging
wind swaths this evening into tonight as convection spreads
southeast along a strong instability/moisture gradient across WI and
the Lake Michigan vicinity.
...Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Multiple areas of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from near the MS River into IL/IN/KY/TN.
Thunderstorm development may be aided by a weak shortwave
impulse/MCV migrating southeast from IA at midday and into the Lower
OH Valley this evening. Storms are expected to develop along a
corridor of differential heating near/just east of the MS River
where mostly clear skies this morning have already resulted in
temperatures approaching 85-90 F, while scattered clouds further
east will maintain somewhat lower high temperatures. Thunderstorm
clusters this afternoon will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts. Sufficient clustering may occur and some upscale development
into a forward propagating bow may occur across the Lower Ohio
Valley vicinity this evening, and wind probabilities have been
increased to 30 percent for parts of southern IL/IN and western KY.
This activity could be maintained southward during the overnight
hours as far south as northern AL/GA given favorable instability and
sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft. Damaging wind gusts
could persist with this activity as it spreads south/southeast
across TN into AL/GA toward early Monday morning.
...NE/SD/IA...
A deeply mixed and hot boundary layer will develop this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a weak surface trough
from NE into southeast SD/northwest IA. Very steep lapse rates aloft
will foster 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles
and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will provide 25-35 kt
effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells/clusters may
develop by late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph would be
the main hazard with this activity. While temperatures are somewhat
warm aloft, the strongest storms could produce sporadic large hail.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast GA/Northern FL...
Upper troughing will persist today across the East, though some
enhancement to northwesterly flow aloft is expected. Relatively cool
conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke
will temper destabilization across the Mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support
occasional organized storms capable of producing locally damaging
gusts.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat
weaker compared to farther north, but may still be sufficient for
transient storm organization with sporadic locally damaging winds
possible.
...Southeast MT/northern WY/Black Hills vicinity...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Leitman.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
Have upgraded portions of the region to an Enhanced Risk including
Wisconsin and nearby far eastern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. An
upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the
central Rockies and High Plains through tonight. Seasonably
strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist,
and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes into the central Plains.
Aided by favorably-timed MCV/mid-level impulse, the most likely
initiation zone for diurnal storm development is expected to be
across northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Initial intense supercell
development is expected in this zone, posing a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe wind gusts, and potentially at
least some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense
wind-producing southeastward-moving clusters are expected into this
evening amidst the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft.
...Middle Mississippi Valley...
Residual MCV influences may semi-focus renewed thunderstorm
development into a very unstable environment this afternoon
regionally, with potential storm organization aided by semi-strong
mid/high-level winds for the season. Damaging winds would likely be
the most probable concern as storms potentially cluster and spread
south-southeastward.
...Nebraska/eastern South Dakota/western Iowa...
A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is
expected from parts of central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota.
Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures
warm to near/above 100 F as CINH erodes. MLCAPE of near/above 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to
be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment.
Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, even with rather
warm temperatures aloft.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/Georgia/north Florida...
A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in northwesterly mid-level
winds are expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, Georgia
and northern Florida.
Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential
influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid
Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt
of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a
primary threat of locally damaging winds.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into Georgia and Florida. Deep-layer flow/shear will
be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be
sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized
damaging-wind threat.
...Southern Montana/northern Wyoming/Black Hills...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
Have upgraded portions of the region to an Enhanced Risk including
Wisconsin and nearby far eastern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. An
upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the
central Rockies and High Plains through tonight. Seasonably
strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist,
and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes into the central Plains.
Aided by favorably-timed MCV/mid-level impulse, the most likely
initiation zone for diurnal storm development is expected to be
across northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Initial intense supercell
development is expected in this zone, posing a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe wind gusts, and potentially at
least some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense
wind-producing southeastward-moving clusters are expected into this
evening amidst the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft.
...Middle Mississippi Valley...
Residual MCV influences may semi-focus renewed thunderstorm
development into a very unstable environment this afternoon
regionally, with potential storm organization aided by semi-strong
mid/high-level winds for the season. Damaging winds would likely be
the most probable concern as storms potentially cluster and spread
south-southeastward.
...Nebraska/eastern South Dakota/western Iowa...
A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is
expected from parts of central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota.
Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures
warm to near/above 100 F as CINH erodes. MLCAPE of near/above 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to
be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment.
Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, even with rather
warm temperatures aloft.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/Georgia/north Florida...
A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in northwesterly mid-level
winds are expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, Georgia
and northern Florida.
Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential
influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid
Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt
of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a
primary threat of locally damaging winds.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into Georgia and Florida. Deep-layer flow/shear will
be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be
sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized
damaging-wind threat.
...Southern Montana/northern Wyoming/Black Hills...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.
...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
Have upgraded portions of the region to an Enhanced Risk including
Wisconsin and nearby far eastern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. An
upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the
central Rockies and High Plains through tonight. Seasonably
strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist,
and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes into the central Plains.
Aided by favorably-timed MCV/mid-level impulse, the most likely
initiation zone for diurnal storm development is expected to be
across northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Initial intense supercell
development is expected in this zone, posing a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe wind gusts, and potentially at
least some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense
wind-producing southeastward-moving clusters are expected into this
evening amidst the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft.
...Middle Mississippi Valley...
Residual MCV influences may semi-focus renewed thunderstorm
development into a very unstable environment this afternoon
regionally, with potential storm organization aided by semi-strong
mid/high-level winds for the season. Damaging winds would likely be
the most probable concern as storms potentially cluster and spread
south-southeastward.
...Nebraska/eastern South Dakota/western Iowa...
A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is
expected from parts of central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota.
Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures
warm to near/above 100 F as CINH erodes. MLCAPE of near/above 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to
be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment.
Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, even with rather
warm temperatures aloft.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/Georgia/north Florida...
A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in northwesterly mid-level
winds are expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, Georgia
and northern Florida.
Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential
influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid
Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt
of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a
primary threat of locally damaging winds.
Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into Georgia and Florida. Deep-layer flow/shear will
be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be
sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized
damaging-wind threat.
...Southern Montana/northern Wyoming/Black Hills...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/26/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic.
A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.
...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...
The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.
...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...
There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic.
A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.
...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...
The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.
...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...
There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic.
A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.
...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...
The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.
...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...
There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wednesday...
The large-scale pattern will feature an upper high over the southern
High Plains with ridging extending into the northern Plains and
upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, broader-scale troughing will persist
across the eastern CONUS, anchored by an upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic.
A very moist air mass is expected to contribute to moderate to
strong instability by afternoon along a cold front over the
Southeast. While vertical shear will remain rather weak, the strong
buoyancy will be supportive of locally intense downdrafts capable of
damaging winds. Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear
possible within a moist upslope regime over the central High Plains,
as well as along a cold front moving into the northern High Plains.
...Days 5 and 6/Thursday and Friday...
The southwestern U.S. ridge/eastern U.S. trough configuration will
be maintained this period. Between those features, a notable
short-wave trough is forecast to track from the northern Plains into
the mid MS Valley along with a surface frontal system. Persistent
low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states
will limit the breadth of an unstable warm sector to the northern
and central Plains on Thursday, where thunderstorms are expected.
Vertical shear is not forecast to be particularly strong; however,
some potential exists for an organized severe weather episode.
Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along the front
in the Ozarks on Friday. Both days will continue to be monitored for
the possible inclusion of severe weather probabilities in subsequent
forecasts.
...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday...
There is good agreement across the ensemble means in the progression
of a more significant short-wave trough from western into central
Canada with the southern fringe of more substantial height falls
overspreading the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains on
Sunday. That upper-air system will be attended by a cold front that
could be the source of severe storm development in those areas
Sunday afternoon into night.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.
...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...
Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
...Northern and Central High Plains...
Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.
...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...
Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
...Northern and Central High Plains...
Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.
...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...
Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
...Northern and Central High Plains...
Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday
morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the
Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by
afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest
ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by
afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central
and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas.
...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians...
Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data
indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central
Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to
uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those
areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air
mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a
kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of
deep-layer shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee
trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized
storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing
structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some
tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva
near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air
mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
...Northern and Central High Plains...
Between a deepening lee trough over the northern High Plains and a
stalled surface front along the KS-OK border, a zone of moist and
moderately unstable upslope flow is forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening along favored
terrain with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting some level of
organization. Severe wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with
the strongest storms.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are
possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Synopsis...
Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the
southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and
associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is
forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front
advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of
that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into
central High Plains.
...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians...
Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters
to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within
a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered
around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will
have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later
in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating
can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to
low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield
MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.
As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location
of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into
night. That being said, storm development appears most probable
along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening
within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear
magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any
tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being
maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast
WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps
western OH Monday afternoon and evening.
Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into
night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs.
The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from
lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a
level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm
clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east
as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains
Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering
winds.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is
forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with
effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along
a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is
possible.
...Central High Plains...
Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper
high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist
and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer
with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential
for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.
...Southeast Arizona...
Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow
across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the
higher terrain closer to the international border within a
relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool
organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with
an associated risk of severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are
possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Synopsis...
Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the
southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and
associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is
forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front
advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of
that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into
central High Plains.
...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians...
Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters
to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within
a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered
around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will
have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later
in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating
can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to
low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield
MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.
As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location
of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into
night. That being said, storm development appears most probable
along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening
within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear
magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any
tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being
maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast
WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps
western OH Monday afternoon and evening.
Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into
night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs.
The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from
lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a
level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm
clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east
as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains
Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering
winds.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is
forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with
effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along
a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is
possible.
...Central High Plains...
Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper
high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist
and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer
with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential
for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.
...Southeast Arizona...
Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow
across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the
higher terrain closer to the international border within a
relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool
organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with
an associated risk of severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and large hail are
possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Synopsis...
Within the northeast periphery of an upper high centered over the
southern High Plains, a low-amplitude short-wave trough and
associated mid-level jet streak will move through the Great Lakes.
At the surface, an area of low pressure over WI Monday morning is
forecast to develop either south or southeast along a cold front
advancing south through the Great Lakes. The western extension of
that boundary is expected to stall over the mid MO Valley into
central High Plains.
...Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians...
Latest model data indicate the potential for multiple storm clusters
to be ongoing at 12Z Monday from northern MN into the Midwest within
a broad zone of warm advection and moisture transport centered
around 850 mb. The duration and extent of any early-day storms will
have implications on the subsequent air mass destabilization later
in the day ahead of the synoptic cold front. Where stronger heating
can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to
low/mid 70s beneath the eastern edge of an EML plume will yield
MLCAPE as high as 2500-3500+ J/kg.
As alluded to above, there is considerable model spread in location
of storm initiation and subsequent evolution Monday afternoon into
night. That being said, storm development appears most probable
along the cold front in WI and lower MI Monday afternoon or evening
within a zone of strengthening forcing for ascent preceding the
short-wave trough. The presence of 40-50+ kt effective bulk shear
magnitudes will support organized storm modes, including supercells
initially with an associated large hail threat. The extent of any
tornado threat will be dependent on semi-discrete supercells being
maintained within a zone of stronger low-level shear from southeast
WI and southern lower MI into northern IL and IN, and perhaps
western OH Monday afternoon and evening.
Damaging-wind potential is expected to increase Monday evening into
night as storms coalesce into one or multiple cold-pool-driven MCSs.
The preferred corridor for that occurrence still appears to be from
lower MI into IN and OH, and perhaps KY, where an upgrade to a
level-3/Enhanced Risk may become necessary in later outlooks. Storm
clusters capable of damaging winds could reach as far south and east
as the TN Valley through Cumberland Plateau and Allegheny Mountains
Monday night, owing to modestly strong north/northwest steering
winds.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A southeastward extension of stronger, mid/upper-level winds is
forecast to overspread the region Monday afternoon into night with
effective bulk shear approaching 30 kt in some areas during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. Scattered storms appear possible along
a lee trough Monday afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg. Steepening low-level
lapse rates will enhance damaging wind potential, especially in
areas of stronger shear where some cold-pool organization is
possible.
...Central High Plains...
Aided by a weak mid-level disturbance rotating around the upper
high, widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible within a moist
and moderately unstable upslope regime Monday afternoon into
evening. Forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer
with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting the potential
for a few severe wind gusts with the strongest storms.
...Southeast Arizona...
Model soundings indicate some enhancement of easterly mid-level flow
across the region Monday with effective bulk shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. The models indicate afternoon storm initiation along the
higher terrain closer to the international border within a
relatively deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Some cold-pool
organization appears possible given the stronger vertical shear with
an associated risk of severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 07/26/2026
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