Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south. ...Synopsis... An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of the western Dakotas surface high. Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the moist air mass. ...Central Plains... An area of moderate instability will develop across the central Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening. Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts. ..Far Northern Plains... Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and instability increase. ...Southeast MO into western TN... A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential. ..Jewell.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south. ...Synopsis... An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of the western Dakotas surface high. Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the moist air mass. ...Central Plains... An area of moderate instability will develop across the central Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening. Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts. ..Far Northern Plains... Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and instability increase. ...Southeast MO into western TN... A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential. ..Jewell.. 06/07/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 7 17:08:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the Ozarks region. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the Ozarks region. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the Ozarks region. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the Ozarks region. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with significant wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible across the Ozarks region. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a strong upper trough over the northwestern CONUS and it is forecast to pivot eastward through the northern High Plains through tonight. Surface mesoanalysis placed a low near the MT/ND/SD border with a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast from northeastern WY into far western ND. Cyclogenesis and strong heating/moistening of the boundary layer will favor storm development by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the Big Horns. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates on the immediate cool side of the frontal zone and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts once storms begin to mature. A linear cluster is expected to evolve during the late afternoon into potentially a bow echo during the early evening with the severe-wind risk notably increasing and becoming more widespread. Have increased the intensity highlight from southeast MT into western portions of ND where it seems increasingly probable a swath of intense gusts ---possibly a bow echo--- is progged by a diverse array of different model cores/runs this morning. This model signal appears reasonable given the co-location of surface features, lapse rates, and upper-level support. It is within this mesoscale corridor that localized peak gusts may range 85-100 mph. Considered an upgrade to Moderate Risk but will defer to the 20 UTC outlook for additional model run-to-run continuity and confidence in mesoscale environmental features. This activity will sweep northeastward during the evening with a gradual lessening of the wind/hail hazard towards the early overnight as it moves east into the eastern half of the Dakotas late. ...Ozarks... A weak trough/low over the central US with embedded disturbances from OK into IA continues to drift northeastward late this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau this afternoon. The 12 UTC Springfield, MO raob sampled this belt of stronger flow with 80-kt at 200 mb. Heating of a very moist airmass with some minor enlargement of low-level hodographs may result a few weak supercells developing coincident with peak heating. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible with this activity. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of CO and into south-central WY. Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained. Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Snake River Plain... Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today. Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach 20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain. Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward accounting latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of CO and into south-central WY. Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained. Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Snake River Plain... Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today. Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach 20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain. Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward accounting latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of CO and into south-central WY. Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained. Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Snake River Plain... Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today. Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach 20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain. Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward accounting latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of CO and into south-central WY. Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained. Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Snake River Plain... Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today. Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach 20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain. Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward accounting latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Dry southwesterly flow ahead of a surface cold front draped over the Great Basin and related upper-level trough moving into the Northern Rockies will bring a broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies today. A corridor stronger southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally 30 mph in favored terrain areas) combined with a deep, dry boundary layer supporting RH of 5-15% this afternoon will bring Critical fire weather conditions from northern AZ into southeastern UT, Western Slope of CO and into south-central WY. Introduction of some mid-level moisture from the advancing trough, a weak frontal boundary and presence of a relative mid-level flow maxima and associated increased shear should bring a dry thunderstorm potential to portions of central/northeastern UT into southwestern WY where a dry-sub cloud layer will be maintained. Isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal surface rainfall over dry fuels will present a heightened ignition potential this afternoon, in addition to dry and breezy conditions. The western extent of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights was trimmed based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Snake River Plain... Cooler, but very dry post-frontal conditions are expected in the Snake River Plain and adjacent foothills of southern ID today. Strong westerly winds at the base of the mid-level trough will reach 20-30 mph this afternoon in southern ID. These winds merged with RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon mixing and dry fuels will bring several hours of Critical fire weather conditions to the Snake River Plain. Critical and Elevated highlights were extended slightly eastward accounting latest forecast guidance. ..Williams.. 06/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... A longwave mid-level trough will remain situated over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Sunday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. The attendant surface low and cold front will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, southwestern CONUS, and northern Rockies with low RH values and critically dry fuels. ...Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies... Ahead of the cold front, strong vertical mixing and a tight pressure gradient will result in gusty winds to 25-35 mph along with 5-15% RH. Poor overnight RH recovery across much of the area is expected to contribute to critically dry fuels across the region. For these reasons, a Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Additionally, the cold front may provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for thunderstorm development across portions of Utah to central Wyoming. Given low precipitable water values and relatively fast storm motions, some Isolated Dry Thunder may occur in this region. ...Snake River Plain... Beneath the departing mid-level jet max, a relatively localized area of Critical conditions is expected in the Snake River Plain in Idaho colocated. Here, strong vertical mixing will result in winds of 25-35 mph along with 10-15% RH. Dry fuels in this region mean that a Critical area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal, Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining support of the ENH risk area. ...Ozarks... A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today, where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period. Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic. ...MT/WY/Dakotas... A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal, Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining support of the ENH risk area. ...Ozarks... A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today, where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period. Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur. ...Eastern VA/NC... A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could produce gusty winds. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day4/Wednesday... A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains. Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours. ...Day 5/Thursday... Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside. ...Day 6/Friday... The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. ...Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday... The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day4/Wednesday... A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains. Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours. ...Day 5/Thursday... Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside. ...Day 6/Friday... The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. ...Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday... The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day4/Wednesday... A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains. Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours. ...Day 5/Thursday... Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside. ...Day 6/Friday... The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains. ...Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday... The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop. Read more

MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... FOR EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Montana into far western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283... Valid 070606Z - 070800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated severe gusts will remain possible into the overnight in eastern Montana and far western North Dakota. DISCUSSION...With very strong shear (70-80 kt effective in eastern Montana), storms in WW 283 have generally remained cellular. The environment will likely continue to support this storm mode, though small clusters may yet develop. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled on this evenings GGW sounding will promote some risk of large hail. The threat for severe wind gusts is less clear given the post-frontal nature of the storms. The severe wind risk will be greater if storms develop along/near the cold front. ..Wendt.. 06/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46690651 48210544 49080439 49100301 48790248 47710326 46810426 46470484 46480612 46690651 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging winds. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will overspread the northern Plains by afternoon. Farther upstream, a significant short-wave trough will assume an increasing negative tilt while translating into the northern High Plains early Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cyclone linked with the lead short-wave trough will deepen while developing from southeast MT into western ND by afternoon. Meanwhile, an associated Pacific front will push east into the western Dakotas, with more of a dryline structure evident from southwest NE into the OK and TX Panhandles. ...Northern and Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley... An active severe-weather period is anticipated Tuesday afternoon into night, especially across the northern Plains, where all severe-weather hazards are possible. While the pre-frontal air mass over the western Dakotas is not expected to be overly moist with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s, strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate to strong instability by mid to late afternoon. Some potential for early-day storms will exist in northern ND, within a zone of persistent warm advection. Additional, more intense thunderstorm activity is expected by mid afternoon from the southern fringe of the early-day convection south along the front as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the short-wave trough. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail initially. Some tornado threat could materialize during the evening hours as LCL heights lower and the low-level shear increases. With time, storms may grow upscale into clusters, with an increasing risk for damaging winds spreading east through the Red River Valley. Farther south, a number of models develop isolated to widely scattered storms during the afternoon along the dryline in western KS amidst a marginally sheared, but moderate to strongly unstable environment. There is some signal that an MCS could evolve from that activity across the mid to lower MO Valley Tuesday evening. Only 5% total-severe probabilities will be added in those areas, due to uncertainty in that scenario. ..Mead.. 06/07/2026 Read more