Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast Georgia into northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261820Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Weak thunderstorms are moving into an environment favorable for strong downbursts capable of producing damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected, but some wind threat may materialize over the next 2-3 hours across far southeast Georgia into northern Florida. DISCUSSION...KVAX and KJAX radar and GOES imagery shows steady growth of poorly organized convection across south-central GA with embedded swaths of strong winds noted in velocity imagery and confirmed by a recent report of 39 mph. Downstream of this activity, strong diurnal heating has allow temperatures to warm into the 90s with dewpoint depressions increasing to around 20 F. Boundary-layer depth/mixing has deepened sufficiently such that low-level lapse rates have increased to 8 to 8.5 C/km across northern FL into far southeast GA. Additionally, a subtle buoyancy axis is noted across this same zone. The potential for strong downbursts should increase over the next couple of hours as thunderstorms move into this thermodynamic environment. Regional VWPs continue to sample very weak deep-layer wind shear, which suggests that storm organization/longevity (and the overall severe threat) will continue to be limited. Nonetheless, based on the thermodynamic environment and recent reports downbursts may be capable of producing 40-60 mph gusts. ..Moore/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30428363 30868245 31138213 31188177 31108155 30858141 30398140 30108154 29808181 29638217 29598252 29618281 29758323 29948341 30188357 30428363 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely from the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies. While near-critical conditions are possible across portions of northeast Idaho and southwestern Montana where surface winds will be a bit stronger, the spotty/localized nature precludes an upgrade to Critical at this time (especially considering recent rainfall across the area). Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the combination of somewhat marginal fuel receptiveness coupled with sustained surface winds remaining at or below 15 mph precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely from the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies. While near-critical conditions are possible across portions of northeast Idaho and southwestern Montana where surface winds will be a bit stronger, the spotty/localized nature precludes an upgrade to Critical at this time (especially considering recent rainfall across the area). Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the combination of somewhat marginal fuel receptiveness coupled with sustained surface winds remaining at or below 15 mph precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely from the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies. While near-critical conditions are possible across portions of northeast Idaho and southwestern Montana where surface winds will be a bit stronger, the spotty/localized nature precludes an upgrade to Critical at this time (especially considering recent rainfall across the area). Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the combination of somewhat marginal fuel receptiveness coupled with sustained surface winds remaining at or below 15 mph precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely from the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies. While near-critical conditions are possible across portions of northeast Idaho and southwestern Montana where surface winds will be a bit stronger, the spotty/localized nature precludes an upgrade to Critical at this time (especially considering recent rainfall across the area). Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the combination of somewhat marginal fuel receptiveness coupled with sustained surface winds remaining at or below 15 mph precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Tomorrow's (Monday) fire weather forecast remains on-track, with Elevated fire weather conditions likely from the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies. While near-critical conditions are possible across portions of northeast Idaho and southwestern Montana where surface winds will be a bit stronger, the spotty/localized nature precludes an upgrade to Critical at this time (especially considering recent rainfall across the area). Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains from Monday afternoon into the evening. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the combination of somewhat marginal fuel receptiveness coupled with sustained surface winds remaining at or below 15 mph precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the western CONUS tomorrow (Monday). However, upper flow pivoting around the ridge is expected to be weaker compared to Day 1 (today). Therefore, wildfire-spread concerns are expected to be overall milder. Nonetheless, effective downward momentum transport of mid-level flow should occur along the northern Sierra into portions of the northern Rockies given a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. The latest guidance consensus depicts widespread southwesterly surface winds exceeding 15 mph amid 20 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN MONTANA... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1740 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...far northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261639Z - 261815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat will exist through early afternoon across far northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell has shown some sign of strengthening in the last hour as it moves from Manitoba into northeast North Dakota. This supercell is elevated, within the post outflow boundary airmass at this time. Already weak forcing, from weak isentropic ascent, is expected to weaken further into the early afternoon as low-level flow dissipates. This casts some uncertainty as to the fate of this activity. However, the downstream airmass is destabilizing and temperatures near 90 with dewpoints in the 70s may be sufficient for surface-based storm development. Given this uncertainty and isolated storm coverage, a watch is not anticipated. However, if there are signs of surface-based transition and/or additional storm development within the next 1 to 2 hours, a watch may need to be considered. ..Bentley/Leitman.. 07/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 49279830 49169559 48899438 48009442 47449501 47349663 47899755 49089833 49279830 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity. Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH. Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Central High Plains... Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO. Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity. Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH. Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Central High Plains... Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO. Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity. Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH. Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Central High Plains... Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO. Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity. Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH. Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Central High Plains... Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO. Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...Great Lakes southward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Early day storms are possible from southern WI into northern IL Monday, associated with a warm advection regime at 850 mb with modest westerly winds at that level. The overall severe risk is expected to be marginal for hail or wind with any such activity. Later in the day, a surface trough is forecast to develop roughly from Lake Huron southwestward into southern WI/northern IL, and southwesterly low-level winds will continue to spread moisture eastward into Lower MI, IN and OH. Scattered cells are forecast to develop near this surface trough/wind shift, aided by the late upper trough amplification. Storms are expected from eastern WI across Lake MI and into Lower MI by late afternoon, and supercell mode appears most likely given up to 50 kt deep-layer shear. A low-level jet out of the west at over 30 kt is expected over IL, with increasing speeds into IN and OH into the evening as the upper trough amplifies and convection possibly merges into clusters or an MCS. Models vary on how much storm coverage will extend into IL, with the most likely areas from southeast WI across southern Lake MI and into southern Lower MI, northern IN and OH. Despite relatively warm conditions aloft, the elongated hodographs from mid to upper levels, and substantial boundary-layer moisture suggest cells may produce large hail. A tornado or two may occur as well late afternoon through early evening, with storm mergers overnight aiding outflow/severe gust potential. A categorical upgrade is possible for parts of the risk area in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Central High Plains... Weak high pressure will exist over the northern Plains with a front pushing south across I-80. Surface winds will back to eastern late in the day, with corridor of higher dewpoints over southern NE and northern KS, extending into northeast CO. Strong heating will occur beneath the upper ridge, and an uncapped and unstable air mass will develop. Apart from the monsoonal regime over the Rockies, additional multicellular storms are expected after 21Z from northeast CO into southwest NE and northwest KS. The hot temperatures near the moist plume and weak flow aloft will support locally severe outflow winds. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over far southeast AZ as midlevel moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move northwestward, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Today's fire weather outlook remains on-track, with only minor modifications made to the outlook areas based on the latest high-resolution weather ensembles and fuel intel. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions amidst receptive fuels will promote a broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions from the western Great Basin into the northern High Plains through much of the day. Critical fire weather conditions are most likely across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, where stronger winds are forecast this afternoon into the evening. Moderate to poor RH recoveries (20-30%) are also expected across portions of western NV tonight into tomorrow morning. Scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana and surrounding areas today. However, it remains unclear how efficient any lightning-induced ignitions will be due to recent rainfall, with quantitative precipitation estimates suggesting widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours and localized values over 1 inch. While an isolated dry thunderstorm area was not introduced, a few lightning ignitions remain possible - especially in areas that received little rainfall over the past few days and/or along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm cores today. ..Elliott.. 07/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western CONUS today, with strong mid-level flow cresting the ridge across the West Coast into the northern Rockies. A dry and deep boundary layer will encourage downward mixing of this stronger flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge by afternoon peak heating. A broad area of at least 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH will overspread portions of the western Great Basin into northern High Plains, warranting Elevated highlights given dry fuels. Guidance consensus also depicts locally stronger winds across portions of northern Montana, and parts of the northern Sierra into the Harney Basin, justifying the continuation of Critical highlights. Another day of scattered, potentially high-based thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern Montana. However, given less receptive fuels in this area, especially with some accumulated rainfall from the prior day's storms, it is unclear how efficient lightning-induced ignitions will be. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more