SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will exit the northeastern states today, with
northwest flow aloft extending from the northern Plains to the East
Coast. Upper ridging will occur over the Rockies, while a large
upper trough slowly approaches the West Coast.
At the surface, high pressure will result in relatively stable
conditions for much of the central and eastern CONUS, with centers
over the Mid Atlantic and near the northern Gulf Coast.
In the wake of the eastern trough, winds just off the surface will
maintain a zone of elevated moisture and instability over much of
TX, where scattered showers and storms will be most likely. Weak
instability will preclude any severe storm chances there.
To the west, cooling aloft with the approaching upper trough will
support weak instability into parts of OR and WA, with isolated late
day thunderstorms possible over portions of the Cascades.
Small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out, along with locally gusty
winds mainly in the 00-03Z time frame.
..Jewell/Chalmers.. 04/20/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Synopsis...
Scattered thunderstorms currently exist along a cold front mainly
over the western Atlantic Ocean, and earlier affected Downeast
Maine. Thunderstorms chances have ended there as the front has now
pushed through the area.
To the west, broken arc of elevated thunderstorms extends from near
El Paso southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley. This area is in
a zone of theta-e advection just off the surface, with unstable
parcels rooted in the 850-700 mb layer. Weak instability will
preclude much of a hail risk, but overall storm chances should
continue to increase into central TX tonight.
..Jewell.. 04/20/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will move onshore the West Coast as
ridging slides over the eastern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday.
Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day
4/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will
remain fairly dry through the week as surface high pressure builds
across the region through Day 6/Friday. As the aforementioned trough
and associated mid-level flow progress eastward into the northern
Plains mid-week, fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge
across portions of the Southwest and High Plains. Through the end of
the forecast period, persistent western troughing will likely
maintain continued fire weather concerns where dry fuels exist.
...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday...
...Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast...
A fire weather threat will continue for portions of Florida on Day
3/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South.
Breezy easterly winds of up to 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) and RH
values between 15-30 percent amid 90-99th percentile ERCs support
40% Critical probabilities. On Day 4/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse
will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow
aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where
97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas.
40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this
threat.
...Central and Southern Plains...
A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft
will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High
Plains and portions of the Southwest mid-week where fuels remain
receptive. 70% critical probabilities have been maintained for Day
4/Wednesday where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface
pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough.
Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds will
continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40%
critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and
Southern Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will move onshore the West Coast as
ridging slides over the eastern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday.
Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day
4/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will
remain fairly dry through the week as surface high pressure builds
across the region through Day 6/Friday. As the aforementioned trough
and associated mid-level flow progress eastward into the northern
Plains mid-week, fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge
across portions of the Southwest and High Plains. Through the end of
the forecast period, persistent western troughing will likely
maintain continued fire weather concerns where dry fuels exist.
...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday...
...Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast...
A fire weather threat will continue for portions of Florida on Day
3/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South.
Breezy easterly winds of up to 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) and RH
values between 15-30 percent amid 90-99th percentile ERCs support
40% Critical probabilities. On Day 4/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse
will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow
aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where
97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas.
40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this
threat.
...Central and Southern Plains...
A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the
approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft
will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High
Plains and portions of the Southwest mid-week where fuels remain
receptive. 70% critical probabilities have been maintained for Day
4/Wednesday where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface
pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough.
Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds will
continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day
5/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40%
critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and
Southern Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...20Z Update...
The TSTM area was removed in eastern NC, where the cold front and
related thunderstorm potential has shifted offshore. The TSTM area
was also trimmed behind a band of eastward-moving thunderstorms
departing the New England coast, and no lightning is expected behind
this activity. Farther south in parts of central FL, isolated
thunderstorms are evolving along the sea breeze focused over the
Treasure Coast. While storm coverage and intensity are expected to
remain isolated/marginal, a warm/unstable PBL and around 35 kt of
midlevel flow could support a strong storm or two capable of locally
strong gusts, though this activity is expected to remain sub-severe.
..Weinman.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.
Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...20Z Update...
The TSTM area was removed in eastern NC, where the cold front and
related thunderstorm potential has shifted offshore. The TSTM area
was also trimmed behind a band of eastward-moving thunderstorms
departing the New England coast, and no lightning is expected behind
this activity. Farther south in parts of central FL, isolated
thunderstorms are evolving along the sea breeze focused over the
Treasure Coast. While storm coverage and intensity are expected to
remain isolated/marginal, a warm/unstable PBL and around 35 kt of
midlevel flow could support a strong storm or two capable of locally
strong gusts, though this activity is expected to remain sub-severe.
..Weinman.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.
Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS
from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and
portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough.
Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move
ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the
surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and
off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a
stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes
vicinity.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until
early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft
(perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited
(potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive
with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should
sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for
marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail.
Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this
moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days
will potentially slow northward progress.
...Central Valley California...
Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the
Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of
heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear
will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a
stronger storm or two is possible.
...Central Texas...
Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer
shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms
capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less
organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the
day.
..Wendt.. 04/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will be the primary feature across much of the CONUS
from the eastern Great Basin into Plains on Tuesday. Moderate
northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper Midwest and
portions of the Ohio Valley in the wake of a stronger upper trough.
Along the West Coast, an upper trough is expected to slowly move
ashore in central California into the western Great Basin. At the
surface, continued presence of high pressure in the Southeast and
off the Atlantic coast will drive moisture return into a
stalled/remnant cold front in central Plains and Lower Great Lakes
vicinity.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Modest moisture return ahead of the boundary is expected to promote
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. This may not occur until
early/mid evening, however. Temperatures will be quite cold aloft
(perhaps near -20 C at 500 mb), but moisture could be quite limited
(potentially in the 40s F). The NAM is again the most aggressive
with moisture return as compared to other guidance. Should
sufficient moisture return occur, shear will be sufficient for
marginally organized convection capable of strong gusts and hail.
Uncertainty is high given how dry the airmass is preceding this
moisture return and convection near the Gulf Coast on preceding days
will potentially slow northward progress.
...Central Valley California...
Ahead of the upper low, southeasterly winds may develop within the
Valley. While destabilization will not be overly strong, pockets of
heating could lead to modest MLCAPE values by the afternoon. Shear
will be a limiting factor for overall severe potential, but a
stronger storm or two is possible.
...Central Texas...
Convection will be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Modest deep-layer
shear and elevated buoyancy could promote a couple stronger storms
capable of small hail. However, storms should generally become less
organized with time as upper-level ridging builds in through the
day.
..Wendt.. 04/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
highlights at this time.
Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels.
...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.
...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.
...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
highlights at this time.
Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels.
...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.
...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.
...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only minor changes were made to expand and confine the Elevated fire
weather highlights based on recent high resolution guidance. Across
the Piedmont, partly cloudy skies may increase RH values and inhibit
deeper mixing across some parts of the region on Monday afternoon.
However, poor overnight humidity recoveries and westerly winds of
10-15 mph in terrain influenced areas will continue to support an
Elevated fire weather threat. In the Southeast, northeasterly winds
of up to 15 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) are expected where
exceptionally dry fuels exist. Despite winds decreasing slightly
throughout the day, areas where very low RH of 15-20 percent and
gustier winds overlap may promote locally critical fire weather
conditions. Farther west, portions of eastern WY may experience
localized critical fire weather conditions where sporadic gusts of
up to 35 mph are possible in the lee of the Laramie Mountains.
However, lack of mid-level support and the narrow duration of strong
winds overlapping low RH precludes the introduction of critical
highlights at this time.
Increasing mid-level moisture with afternoon heating and resultant
instability may support isolated thunderstorms across south-central
NM into eastern AZ. PWATs of 0.5-0.75" with a prominent dry
sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing for the threat
of dry thunderstorms to evolve. While widespread ERCs are below the
90th percentile in this region, recent fire activity depicts
receptivity where pockets of drier fuels exist.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts
of the High Plains and the Southeast on Monday. Upper-level ridging
will gradually shift east from the Rockies into the Plains through
the day. While surface high pressure shifts east over the Southeast
states, a lee trough will deepen along the northern High Plains,
resulting in areas of breezy conditions over dry fuels.
...High Plains...
A deepening lee trough along the northern High Plains will support
strengthening west/southwest winds to the west of the trough axis
across eastern WY into western NE. Further south, a tightening
pressure gradient in proximity to a lingering surface high over
eastern TX will promote strengthening winds across the OK/TX
Panhandle region. Within both regimes, ensemble guidance suggests
sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely. RH minimums in the
teens are likely across WY into NE where downslope wind will depress
moisture content within an antecedent dry air mass. Further south,
the northern fringe of returning moisture will begin nosing into
western TX. This may limit RH reductions to some degree, but RH
minimums will likely fall into at least the low 20s given model
guidance tendency to display a moist bias at the surface within the
early stages of moisture return.
...Southeast...
A dry air mass will reside across much of the Southeast where fuels
will likely remain dry owing to limited rainfall forecast over the
next 24-48 hours for much of the region. In general, gradient winds
will weaken through the day as surface high pressure builds across
the region. However, areas of breezy conditions will likely persist
in the lee of the southern Appalachians and along the northeastern
Gulf coast. Sustained winds near 15 mph within a dry air mass (RH
minimums in the teens to twenties) will likely support another day
of elevated fire weather conditions.
...New Mexico to eastern Arizona...
Low to mid-level moisture return is anticipated across southern TX
and into central NM through Monday afternoon. Although forcing for
ascent will be modest under an upper-level ridge, a combination of
localized orographic ascent and deeply mixed boundary-layers with
minimal inhibition will support isolated thunderstorm development.
Storm motions around 10 knots will likely support pockets of wetting
precipitation, but PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.7 inches will likely
support dry lightning strikes outside of the heavier precipitation
cores. With regional ERCs near the 75th to 80th percentile,
lightning ignitions appear possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on
Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will
move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday
morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts
of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high
pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in
place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande
Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.
...South Florida...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the
upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be
cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the
surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low
levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time
frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should
keep severe potential low.
...Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas...
With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or
two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving
through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this
activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture
return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.
Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight
hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time
frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing
southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750
J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.
..Wendt.. 04/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on
Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will
move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday
morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts
of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high
pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in
place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande
Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.
...South Florida...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the
upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be
cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the
surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low
levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time
frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should
keep severe potential low.
...Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas...
With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or
two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving
through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this
activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture
return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.
Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight
hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time
frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing
southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750
J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.
..Wendt.. 04/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat.
...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat.
...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast. Across the southern
Plains, morning surface observations depict widespread values of
less than 20 percent RH owing to poor overnight humidity recoveries.
Decreasing high clouds early this afternoon will promote deeper
mixing with RH dropping to 5-15 percent and strong gusts of up to 35
mph mixing down to the surface, maintaining Critical fire weather
concerns. Across the Piedmont/Southeast, a shield of high clouds
will gradually become more transparent with sporadic areas of
partially sunny skies this afternoon. 12z soundings portray a very
dry airmass up to 4-6 km, with 30-45 kt winds just above the
surface. Areas that see breaks in the clouds will likely experience
deeper mixing, contributing to stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30
mph in localized areas. Northwesterly winds are expected to decrease
this evening, however, dry air will persist overnight across much of
the Southeast. This may lead to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
further exacerbating the fire environment into Day 2/Monday. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon across portions of the southern and central High Plains as
well as across parts of the Southeast. Both fire weather regimes
will be influenced by building surface high pressure in the wake of
a cold front pushing into the northern Gulf and southeast Atlantic
coast.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Building surface high pressure is noted across the southern Plains
with very dry conditions (dewpoints in the teens to single digits)
observed across western TX into western KS. Southwest winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15-25 mph on the western periphery of the
surface high this afternoon as a dry return flow regime becomes
established. Mostly sunny skies coupled with very low boundary-layer
moisture will support deep mixing and RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. Critical fire weather conditions remain likely
across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS where gusts up to 30
mph appear likely. Given recent fire activity across northwest TX,
the fuel environment will support the fire weather threat.
...Southeast States...
06 UTC surface observations depict a cold front pushing eastward
across the Southeast. Although scattered showers accompany this
front, latest forecast depicts low probability for wetting rainfall
across northern FL into central GA and SC, which will likely be
insufficient to mitigate ERC values well above the 95th percentile.
In the wake of the cold front, west/northwest winds will prevail
across much of the region. A combination of dry air advection and
downslope flow off the southern Appalachians will contribute to
widespread 15-25% RH minimums. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions should become fairly widespread as winds increase
into the 15-20 mph with localized gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.
Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.
..Hart/Bunting.. 04/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently approaching Baja California will
provide increasing large-scale forcing for ascent over Mexico and
south/west TX today. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
through the period.
Other isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
frontal band affecting New England and eastern NC, beneath cold air
aloft in the Lower Great Lakes region, and over south FL. In all of
these areas, weak instability and/or limited vertical shear will
preclude a risk of organized severe storms.
..Hart/Bunting.. 04/19/2026
Read more
