WW 149 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 261710Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to further develop near
a boundary and probably become more surface-based over time, with
large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Manhattan KS to 30 miles east southeast of Kansas City MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Guyer
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS...
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Strong mid-level flow of 55-65 knots will linger over the Southwest
and Southern Plains in the wake of a departing upper-level short
wave, while a surface cyclone presses northeastward into the Upper
Midwest by late Monday. As a result, downslope enhanced drying
within broad west-southwest flow will impact this region Monday,
promoting an enhanced fire weather threat within a persistent dry
fuelscape. West winds of 15-20 mph combined with drier conditions
relative to today (minimum 5-15% RH by peak heating) are most likely
across two corridors in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
into the TX Panhandle and downwind of the Sacramento/Guadalupe
Mountains, where Critical Highlights were introduced.
..Williams.. 04/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.
The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.
The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. More isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western Texas.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay
vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. As a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central Plains, another surface low will
develop near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region. An elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the Panhandles across eastern Oklahoma
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.
The evolution of features from D2 Monday into D3 Tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the D3 forecast.
It does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern Oklahoma/northeastern Texas northward into the
Mississippi River Valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. These would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. Supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern Missouri into western Kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. It is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the Mississippi Valley/Middle Tennessee/Ohio Valley
through the evening. A broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with D3 ML CSU/NSSL guidance given uncertainty. A corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
Further south and west along the dryline in central Texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with MLCIN in place through the morning. Nonetheless, CIN does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. A supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
MD 0548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Central and Northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261856Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional threat of isolated severe thunderstorms is
expected through this afternoon across portions of central and
northern OK.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery indicates a deepening
cumulus field within the warm sector across north central OK. An
effective warm front will continue to advance northward throughout
this afternoon, with an extremely buoyant airmass proceeding it.
This airmass is characterized by upper 60 to low 70 dewpoints and
temperatures in the low 80s beneath mid-level lapse rates near 7.5
C/km, yielding ~3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Convective temperatures have
already been reached south of the warm front, and continued warming
is expected into the late afternoon. It is currently unclear whether
convective initiation will occur mostly due to a lack of significant
mid to upper level forcing. However, a combination of deep moisture
pooling along the warm front, increasing mid to upper level flow,
and subtle surface convergence could overcome this lack of more
large scale ascent.
Effective westerly bulk shear near 40 to 50 kt (by late this
afternoon) will support updraft organization and the potential for
one or two discrete supercells capable of very large hail, and
perhaps a tornado considering slightly backed surface flow/curved
low level hodographs. Conditions will continued to be monitored for
severe weather.
..Barnes/Guyer.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37179766 37069796 36839812 36549816 36269819 35799857
35489831 35459800 35649773 35759745 35629715 35469697
35309684 35099662 34949622 35269585 35559603 36019638
36289649 36509660 36739662 36979662 37189680 37279724
37179766
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).
A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).
A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).
A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).
A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
Read more
MD 0547 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...parts of northeast KS into far southeast
NE/northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261624Z - 261800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized strong/damaging gusts may
spread eastward into early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified across
central KS. A subtle midlevel shortwave trough and downstream
heating/moistening may help to sustain this storm cluster as it
moves eastward into early afternoon. In the short-term, with MUCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt, the strongest
elevated cores will be capable of producing isolated hail, and
perhaps locally gusty winds. If sufficient downstream
heating/destabilization occurs, this cluster could eventually become
rooted closer to the surface as it approaches northeast KS, which
would result in an increasing threat of damaging wind and possibly a
brief tornado, in addition to continued hail potential. Watch
issuance is possible if trends support intensification of this
cluster into the early afternoon.
..Dean/Guyer.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39399798 40149733 40259568 40099499 39609463 39039462
38309486 38169557 38069650 37999771 38299783 39399798
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.
Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.
Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.
Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower
Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to
2-3 inches in diameter are possible.
...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Appreciable severe potential is still readily apparent especially
later this afternoon into tonight, although sub-regional details
remain quite complex, particularly regarding the southern extent of
deep convective initiation southward along the dryline.
A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains
early today will continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development
across Kansas through the afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 547
for short-term details. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level
warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level
lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This
convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a
front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but
scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable
environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible
with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a
greater threat for damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri by late afternoon/early evening.
A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject
northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans
today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak
lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast
Colorado/northeast New Mexico vicinity in response, with the surface
low developing into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas by
this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is forecast to
develop east of a sharpening dryline across western/central Oklahoma
as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front
by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for
this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central Oklahoma by
peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a
focus for convective initiation later today into this evening,
although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until
this evening and past peak diurnal heating.
Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for
surface-based convective initiation today in Oklahoma/north Texas,
but the volatile environment and ample conditional-type potential is
concerning. It appears possible that multiple supercells may develop
with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding
the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and
ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing
very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather
favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through
the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this
evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective
SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong
tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can
form this afternoon persist into the evening.
Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into
tonight along/north of the warm front from northern Oklahoma near
the triple point into Kansas. This activity will also pose a threat
for large to very large hail and possibly an increasing
tornado/damaging wind risk.
Farther south into Texas, the forcing for ascent will remain
weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few
supercells is apparent across north-central Texas where the greatest
heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large
hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that
can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be
sustained.
..Guyer/Barnes.. 04/26/2026
Read more
