Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible. ...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late tonight into early Monday morning. A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface based. A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating. Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening. Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained. ...ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible. ...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late tonight into early Monday morning. A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface based. A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating. Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening. Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained. ...ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0851 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible. ...Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late tonight into early Monday morning. A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface based. A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating. Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening. Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained. ...ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast... A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/26/2026 Read more

MD 0545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0545 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...Southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261247Z - 261415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An MCS will likely persist while approaching the coast by mid morning. Isolated wind damage will be possible, but a watch does not appear necessary. DISCUSSION...An MCS is moving south-southeastward along the low-level moisture/buoyancy gradient across southern MS and southeast LA, supported by sufficient northwesterly deep-layer shear to keep convection upright along the gust front. The MCS motion toward the south-southeast at about 30 kt and velocity data from KHDC suggest mostly 30-40 kt outflow gusts are probable, though isolated tree damage may occur with the strongest gusts. Given only weak low-level flow noted in regional VWPs, it appears unlikely that these storms will intensify substantially this morning. Thus, a watch does not appear necessary. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30158889 29848980 29879062 30329117 30709123 30959088 31139004 31388911 31218866 30458858 30158889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0546 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261303Z - 261430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms could continue to produce isolated large hail this morning, but storm coverage is in question and a watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have persisted overnight in small clusters, aided by warm advection along an outflow/baroclinic zone. A couple of storms have developed supercell structures, with isolated 2-3 inch hail earlier in north TX. Isolated large hail may occur with newer storm development into northwest LA, where profiles display enough vertical shear for storm organization. The coverage and persistence of storms through the morning is not clear, as is the need for a watch. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32789369 32199326 31849329 31839365 32209433 32679495 33049553 33489555 33639516 33319451 32789369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time. Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHV TO 25 SW ELD TO 35 N MLU. ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-027-049-061-073-111-260940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHV TO 25 SW ELD TO 35 N MLU. ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-027-049-061-073-111-260940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 147 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 260310Z - 261100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to track southeast into the overnight hours. Nocturnal cooling and increasing boundary-layer inhibition will limit surface-based storms and large hail up to 2 inch diameter will be the main hazard. Isolated severe gusts also are possible. If a storm can become surface-based, a tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of De Queen AR to 35 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 146... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRS TO 30 NNW CRS TO 30 NE DAL TO 30 SSW ADM. ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-119-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-379-397-467-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRS TO 30 NNW CRS TO 30 NE DAL TO 30 SSW ADM. ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 148 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC085-097-119-147-181-213-223-231-257-277-379-397-467-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DELTA FANNIN GRAYSON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 148 TORNADO TX 260340Z - 261000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1040 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells will continue east/southeast across North Texas the next several hours. The environment across North Texas remains favorable for strong tornadoes. Additionally, very large hail has occurred with these storms and potential for 2+ inch hail with continue into the overnight period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east of Sherman TX to 50 miles south southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 144...WW 145...WW 147... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states. There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states. There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states. There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0543 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 148... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 148... Valid 260615Z - 260715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 148 continues. SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell cluster should begin to weaken by 07-08z. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible in the interim. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, small supercell cluster continues to move across the DFW Metroplex with the more recent hail reports in the 1-1.75 inch range and measured gusts of 40-46 kt (61 kt measured at KNFW ~45 minutes ago). These storms remain in a relatively favorable environment close to the axis of largest MLCAPE and weaker convective inhibition, and a VWPs show 30-40 kt southerly storm inflow. However, storm outflow has tended to spread southeast of the main updrafts, and a gradual decrease in buoyancy and increase in the cap should lead to a weakening trend by roughly 07-08z. In the interim, occasional large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32259617 32239653 32399694 32529708 32799684 32809649 32669606 32449600 32259617 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more