SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region
through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and
southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains
through Gulf Coast states.
There remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the
outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid
South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio
Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region
through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday
night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and
southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains
through Gulf Coast states.
There remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the
outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid
South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio
Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the
southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated
to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently
approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the
Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs,
a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by
Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the
Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will
be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK
and TX.
Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH
minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread
elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary
synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through
late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will
likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30
mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20
mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal
and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical
highlights were introduced.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0543 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 148... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...North Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 148...
Valid 260615Z - 260715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 148 continues.
SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell cluster should begin to weaken by
07-08z. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado will be
possible in the interim.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived, small supercell cluster continues to move
across the DFW Metroplex with the more recent hail reports in the
1-1.75 inch range and measured gusts of 40-46 kt (61 kt measured at
KNFW ~45 minutes ago). These storms remain in a relatively
favorable environment close to the axis of largest MLCAPE and weaker
convective inhibition, and a VWPs show 30-40 kt southerly storm
inflow. However, storm outflow has tended to spread southeast of
the main updrafts, and a gradual decrease in buoyancy and increase
in the cap should lead to a weakening trend by roughly 07-08z. In
the interim, occasional large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts
will be possible.
..Thompson.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
LAT...LON 32259617 32239653 32399694 32529708 32799684 32809649
32669606 32449600 32259617
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Areas affected...Southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147...
Valid 260631Z - 260800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147
continues.
SUMMARY...Earlier supercells have grown upscale into a linear/bowing
cluster with continued wind damage and isolated large hail
potential.
DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells in southwest AR, with a history of
very large hail, have now merged and transitioned to more of a
linear/cold pool-driven structure, with the lead supercell evolving
into a comma head. This suggests the severe threat is also
transitioning more to wind damage and embedded mesovortex
circulations, though strong updrafts in the cluster could still
produce large hail. This storm cluster will likely persist for the
next couple of hours while moving southeastward along the buoyancy
gradient from southern AR into northern LA. The severe-threat will
potentially reach a tier or two of counties/parishes east of the
watch, but most of the threat should remain within the watch area.
..Thompson.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33289265 33469223 33339202 32989181 32599195 32439221
32359265 32429313 32629350 32819375 33069380 33289360
33289265
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0542 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Areas affected...northeastern Texas...southwestern
Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147...
Valid 260442Z - 260645Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW147.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells continue to track south and east
southeastern Arkansas. These cells have a history of producing hail
up to 2.75 inches in diameter and continue to have high MESH cores.
In the short term, these will pose the greatest severe risk with the
primary threat being large to very large hail. While these storms
are likely elevated, should they be able to continue southward into
the warmer air and vicinity of more backed surface flow, a tornado
could be possible.
CAM guidance seems to suggest that eventually, storms will cluster
and move across northern Louisiana through the morning. This may
lead to a shift in potential for strong to severe wind. Given the
diurnal stabilizing of the boundary layer, winds may not make it to
the surface keeping this threat isolated.
..Thornton.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33689513 34069364 33999312 33439229 33049221 32699221
32309231 32189308 32439390 32749474 32879501 33689513
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing
the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the
Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into
the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady
deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the
day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the
southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble
output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely
across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath
of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far
western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of
the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will
support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions.
A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High
Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely
in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope
warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon.
Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to
mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range
again today.
Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning
across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests
little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of
dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the
85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 04/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PRX
TO 35 NNE TXK TO 15 WSW PBF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
..THOMPSON..04/26/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-025-027-039-057-073-081-091-099-103-139-260640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA UNION
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
OKC089-260640-
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and
Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive
destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained
along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and
Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive
destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained
along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and
Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive
destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained
along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and
Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.
Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.
The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive
destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.
...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern
Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.
The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained
along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts
and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and
isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the
southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an
associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the
Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will
overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and
strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the
surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High
Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas.
Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over
the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts
will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and
strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during
the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the
overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of
the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the
southern Plains.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be
in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping
inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast
soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion
during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening
in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg
range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are
forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be
favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the
storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some
cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early
overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop.
The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible.
Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent
will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can
become established during the late afternoon or early to mid
evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large
to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2
would also support a tornado threat.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in
the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will
be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated
convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up
the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early
evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail.
...Central and Southwest Texas...
The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located
from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a
dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The
extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable
for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026
Read more