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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states. There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains into lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region through the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. In its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance eastward and southward through the Ohio Valley/Mid South and southern Great Plains. This may be slowed a bit as a trailing short wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates through the base of broad, larger-scale interior North American troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining a notable influence as far north as the southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast states. There remains notable spread within the latest model output concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing for ascent develops with the evolving wave. A conglomerate convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front across the northern Gulf Coast states through Ark-La-Tex at the outset of the period. Even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along the frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains into Mid South, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the Ohio Valley. Aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions will persist across portions of the southern High Plains on Monday, supporting another day of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. The upper wave currently approaching the Southwest is forecast to quickly eject across the Plains and into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. As this occurs, a surface cyclone will migrate into the upper MS River Valley by Monday evening with a trailing cold front pushing south across the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph westerly winds will be common across the southern High Plains and into portions of OK and TX. Little to no moisture recovery will support another day of 5-15% RH minimums over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. Although the primary synoptic low will be increasingly displaced from the region through late afternoon, residual strong winds within the boundary layer will likely support areas of 20-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph. Based on latest ensemble guidance, a corridor of sustained 20 mph winds appears likely roughly along portions of the I-40 corridor from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Given this ensemble signal and some recent fire activity within this corridor, Critical highlights were introduced. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 543

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0543 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 148... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 148... Valid 260615Z - 260715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 148 continues. SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell cluster should begin to weaken by 07-08z. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible in the interim. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, small supercell cluster continues to move across the DFW Metroplex with the more recent hail reports in the 1-1.75 inch range and measured gusts of 40-46 kt (61 kt measured at KNFW ~45 minutes ago). These storms remain in a relatively favorable environment close to the axis of largest MLCAPE and weaker convective inhibition, and a VWPs show 30-40 kt southerly storm inflow. However, storm outflow has tended to spread southeast of the main updrafts, and a gradual decrease in buoyancy and increase in the cap should lead to a weakening trend by roughly 07-08z. In the interim, occasional large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32259617 32239653 32399694 32529708 32799684 32809649 32669606 32449600 32259617 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 544

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0544 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Areas affected...Southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 260631Z - 260800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...Earlier supercells have grown upscale into a linear/bowing cluster with continued wind damage and isolated large hail potential. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells in southwest AR, with a history of very large hail, have now merged and transitioned to more of a linear/cold pool-driven structure, with the lead supercell evolving into a comma head. This suggests the severe threat is also transitioning more to wind damage and embedded mesovortex circulations, though strong updrafts in the cluster could still produce large hail. This storm cluster will likely persist for the next couple of hours while moving southeastward along the buoyancy gradient from southern AR into northern LA. The severe-threat will potentially reach a tier or two of counties/parishes east of the watch, but most of the threat should remain within the watch area. ..Thompson.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33289265 33469223 33339202 32989181 32599195 32439221 32359265 32429313 32629350 32819375 33069380 33289360 33289265 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 542

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0542 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 Areas affected...northeastern Texas...southwestern Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 260442Z - 260645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW147. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells continue to track south and east southeastern Arkansas. These cells have a history of producing hail up to 2.75 inches in diameter and continue to have high MESH cores. In the short term, these will pose the greatest severe risk with the primary threat being large to very large hail. While these storms are likely elevated, should they be able to continue southward into the warmer air and vicinity of more backed surface flow, a tornado could be possible. CAM guidance seems to suggest that eventually, storms will cluster and move across northern Louisiana through the morning. This may lead to a shift in potential for strong to severe wind. Given the diurnal stabilizing of the boundary layer, winds may not make it to the surface keeping this threat isolated. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33689513 34069364 33999312 33439229 33049221 32699221 32309231 32189308 32439390 32749474 32879501 33689513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions. A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon. Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range again today. Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the 85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions. A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon. Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range again today. Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the 85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude upper wave traversing the lower CO River Valley. This feature will migrate across the Southwest through the day as an attendant mid-level jet noses into the southern High Plains by peak heating. This will promote steady deepening of a lee cyclone across eastern CO/western KS through the day, resulting in strengthening west/southwest winds across the southern High Plains. Consensus from latest guidance and ensemble output is that widespread 20-25 mph sustained winds are likely across the region with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph possible. A swath of 30-35 mph winds will likely emerge across eastern NM into far western TX under the approaching mid-level jet and within the lee of the Sacramento and southern Sandia Manzano Mountains, and will support a corridor of extremely critical fire weather conditions. A dry air mass has been in place across the Southwest/southern High Plains over the past several days with afternoon RH minimums largely in the single digits to low teens. Increasing downslope warming/drying will promote further RH reductions this afternoon. Although most guidance depicts afternoon RH minimums in the low to mid teens, RH values will most likely fall into the 5-10% range again today. Although some light precipitation is ongoing early Sunday morning across northeast NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, MRMS QPE suggests little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given preceding days of dry/windy conditions and increasing ERC values (largely near the 85th percentile), receptive fuels will be in place and will support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 04/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PRX TO 35 NNE TXK TO 15 WSW PBF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542 ..THOMPSON..04/26/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 147 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-025-027-039-057-073-081-091-099-103-139-260640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER OKC089-260640- Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...Discussion... Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward through much of the interior of North America. Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day. The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low. ...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys... Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+ kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs, embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts. The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging, tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 26, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern Plains. Strong tornadoes and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Hail and isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... A vigorous mid-level trough will eject northeastward toward the southern and central Rockies this afternoon into tonight, as an associated mid-level jet translates east-northeastward through the Desert Southwest. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the central Plains by this evening providing lift and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a lee trough will deepen over the southern and central High Plains, as moisture advects northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Throughout most of the day, large-scale ascent will be limited over the moist sector. Isolated thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts will be possible in areas with maximized low-level convergence and strong instability. Convective coverage will likely increase during the evening as the mid-level jet max approaches, and as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens. By mid to late evening and into the overnight period, scattered severe storms will be likely in parts of the central Plains and Ozarks, with isolated storms possible in the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will be in place over Oklahoma early this evening, but that a capping inversion will exist over much of the moist sector. RAP forecast soundings at Salina, Kansas gradually erode the capping inversion during the evening as low-level moisture increases. By late evening in central Kansas, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be very steep and could exceed 8 C/km. This should be favorable for supercells with large to very large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Although the storms will likely be elevated during much of the evening, some cells could become surface-based in the mid to late evening or early overnight period. Once this occurs, a tornado threat should develop. The more intense supercells could produce a strong tornado or two. A wind-damage threat will also be possible. Further south into parts of Oklahoma, limited large-scale ascent will make initiation difficult along the dryline. If a storm can become established during the late afternoon or early to mid evening, extreme instability (MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/Km will be very favorable for large to very large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2 would also support a tornado threat. ...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley... The eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass will be located in the lower Mississippi Valley today. Although large-scale ascent will be weak due to the presence of a mid-level ridge, isolated convective initiation will be possible in areas that locally heat up the most. Cells that can strengthen in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Central and Southwest Texas... The western edge of an extremely unstable airmass will be located from central Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm initiation will be possible just to the east of a dryline, as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon. The extreme instability (MLCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg) with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/26/2026 Read more
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