SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A large, deep upper level trough will move over the Great Lakes and
the eastern US Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday, with another surface
cold front pushing through the eastern US. An upper-level trough
will move into the West early to mid-next week, with upper-level
troughing likely lingering over the West through next week. Much of
the southern half of the West, southern/central High Plains, and the
Southeast will remain dry for the outlook period.
...Plains and Southwest...
Lee troughing on the southern/central High Plains amid dry return
flow will result in another round of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions on Day 3/Sunday. South-southwest sustained winds
of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% is expected with the highest
probabilities of critical conditions in the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles, southwest Kansas, into far southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.
Dry/breezy conditions will likely develop again on Day 4/Monday in
the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas amid
continued surface troughing and dry return flow. Another area of
concern will be in eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska and South
Dakota near surface troughing and a cold front. West-northwest winds
of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25% is forecast across this area,
with most of the concern ahead of the cold front.
As the upper-level trough moves into and across the Intermountain
West, increasing flow aloft and lee troughing on the High Plains
will lead to elevated/critical fire weather conditions. A broad 40%
area was introduced on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the
Southwest and much of the southern/central High Plains based on
current ensemble forecast guidance. Depending on the timing of the
upper-level troughing, probabilities may be necessary on Day
5/Tuesday if the upper-level trough trends quicker, or probabilities
may be shifted/increased onto Day 7/Thursday if trends with trough
are slower. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are likely
to return to portions of the Southwest and much of the
southern/central High Plains mid-next week.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop east of the
Appalachians on the Piedmont Plateau extending southwest into the
Florida Panhandle on Day 3/Sunday. The 40% area was expanded, but
farther expansion may be necessary depending on the anticipated
rainfall on Day 2/Saturday into Day 3/Sunday. North-northwest
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH of 10-30% is forecast
within and near the 40% area amid a fuelscape characterized by ERCs
mostly in the 90-99th percentiles.
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will likely persist across
portions of the Piedmont and Deep South on Day 4/Monday. By Day
5/Tuesday, western portions of the Florida Peninsula and north
Florida have the best chances elevated to locally critical
conditions as 10-20 mph easterly winds overlap RH of 25-40%. Minimum
RH of 20-35% will continue across portions of the Southeast further
exacerbating already dry, receptive fuels for which a Fuels and Fire
Behavior Advisory has been issued.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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