SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.
...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.
...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.
...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.
...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.
...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.
...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.
...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.
...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.
..Weinman.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.
...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.
Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.
Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.
With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.
...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.
Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.
Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.
With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CORRECTED FOR ORIENTATION OF THE 45% HAIL PROBABILITIES
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley and central/southern Great Plains. Initially this
may be accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few
strong tornadoes, before severe wind gusts of 60 to 90 mph become
the most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward to another low over central KS. A
warm front also extends southwestward from the MN low through far
southwest MN and far northern IL into central IN. This warm front is
demarcated well by the 56 deg F isodrosotherm. Farther south, a
dryline extends from the triple point KS low back southwestward
through the TX Panhandle and into far southeast NM. A broad, moist
warm sector exists to the east of the cold front and dryline,
characterized largely by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
A well-defined shortwave trough is apparent on satellite imagery,
extending from southern Saskatchewan back southwestward into the
eastern Great Basin. This wave is forecast to continue eastward,
with a attendant increase in the mid-level flow across much of the
Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley. The cold front will surge
eastward/southeastward in response to this wave as well, interacting
with the warm sector to support numerous strong to severe
thunderstorms from parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the
lower Missouri Valley into southern Plains.
...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Moderate to strong low-level moisture advection is expected across
the Upper MS Valley today as the surface low mentioned in the
synopsis progresses northeastward, with an attendant northward shift
of the warm front as well. The risk across this region may evolve in
several phases, beginning with the elevated thunderstorms currently
ongoing across northwest WI. This storms will likely continue
northeastward, posing a risk for severe hail and isolated damaging
gusts. Additional development is possible northwest of this activity
along the occluded front, with some hail possible here as well.
Farther south, the northeastward advecting low-level moisture
coupled with strong heating and steep lapse rates will result in a
strongly unstable airmass along and just south of the warm front by
the early afternoon. Storm initiation is anticipated within this
open warm sector by early afternoon, forced by a mix of warm-air
advection, low-level confluence, and subtly increasing large-scale
ascent. This activity should be ahead of the front and initially
discrete. The overall parameter space will be characterized by
strong to very strong buoyancy, moderate deep-layer vertical shear,
and strong low-level helicity. Supercells capable of all hazards are
expected, including large to very large (i.e. 3"+ hail), strong to
intense tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. Storm interactions are
expected to strongly influence the tornado risk, with the initially
discrete mode likely becoming messy quickly.
Farther west, other storms are likely to evolve quickly along the
front, developing into a band of severe thunderstorms that will push
east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend to
become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS/OK/MO...
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop along and ahead of
the triple point over south-central KS an associated cold front and
dryline. Strong low-level convergence will likely lead to initial
storm development near the triple point. This initial activity will
be supercellular and capable of very large to giant hail (over
3-3.5" in diameter). Highest coverage of very large hail is expected
over from far northwest OK into south-central KS. Strong downdrafts
(60 to 80 mph) are possible as well. With a largely
boundary-parallel orientation to the deep-layer shear, the tornado
risk appears relatively lower. However, given the supercell mode and
potential interactions with outflow, a low-probability tornado risk
remains. A more north-south configuration to the dryline supports a
conditional tornado risk into far northwest TX.
With time, upscale growth and the development of a
forward-propagating MCS is anticipated across central and eastern
KS. Very strong gusts (80+ mph) are possible with this MCS.
Additionally, some QLCS tornado risk will exist within this line as
long as it stays ahead of the surging cold front. The front will
continue sweeping southeastward, with storms along this boundary
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 04/17/2026
Read more
WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
..THORNTON..04/17/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...DLH...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC025-039-045-049-055-099-109-115-157-163-169-171740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHISAGO DODGE FILLMORE
GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER
OLMSTED PINE WABASHA
WASHINGTON WINONA
WIC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-019-031-033-035-051-053-057-063-
069-073-081-085-091-093-095-097-099-107-109-113-119-121-125-129-
141-171740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ASHLAND BARRON
BAYFIELD BUFFALO BURNETT
CHIPPEWA CLARK DOUGLAS
DUNN EAU CLAIRE IRON
JACKSON JUNEAU LA CROSSE
LINCOLN MARATHON MONROE
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated/Critical areas in New
Mexico and the southern High Plains based on the latest observations
and high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are already occurring in portions of west Texas and
central/eastern New Mexico, with several hours of elevated/critical
conditions expected in the outlook areas. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more
details.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...
Minor expansions were made to the Elevated/Critical areas in New
Mexico and the southern High Plains based on the latest observations
and high-resolution forecast guidance. Elevated to locally critical
conditions are already occurring in portions of west Texas and
central/eastern New Mexico, with several hours of elevated/critical
conditions expected in the outlook areas. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more
details.
..Nauslar.. 04/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southern MN into extreme northwest WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 171244Z - 171415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and locally strong to severe
gusts may develop through mid morning.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed in the vicinity of a
cold front across parts of southern MN. Short-term guidance suggests
this convection will expand in coverage and potentially intensify
through the morning, within the northern gradient of an expanding
buoyancy plume extending from the Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Moderate mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient
effective shear for storm organization as convection deepens and
becomes rooted closer to the surface.
In the short term, convective mode may remain rather complex, though
strong embedded updrafts and possibly an elevated supercell could
evolve out of the developing convection. Hail is expected to be the
primary near-term threat, though localized strong/damaging gusts
cannot be ruled out.
Some guidance (notably recent HRRR runs) suggest that this ongoing
convection may eventually become surface-based and pose a threat of
all severe hazards across parts of WI, due to downstream low-level
moisture transport and diurnal heating/destabilization. However,
this evolution may not occur until late morning or during the
afternoon. The need for watch issuance through mid morning is
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the development of
more-organized elevated storms and eventual transition to
surface-based convection.
..Dean/Smith.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44979427 45449409 45739306 45569259 45149242 44729238
44539242 44229261 43909284 43649314 43529456 43779458
44979427
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be
accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong
tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a front bisecting MN north to
south to a low near the NE-IA-SD border, with the front extending
southwestward into the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery
shows a prominent upper trough near the MT-ND border
south-southwestward into eastern UT. A belt of increasingly strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a destabilizing warm
sector today as the upper trough eventually reaches the Upper
Midwest and central Great Plains late tonight. Concurrently, the
aforementioned cyclone will develop northeast to Lake Superior as a
warm front over IA advances northward into the western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, the cold front will sweep southeast reaching the central
Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great Plains by early
Saturday.
...Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley...
A northward expanding warm/moist sector on the nose of a 50+ kt
southerly LLJ will continue to destabilize as large-scale ascent
approaches from the west. A large-hail threat may develop this
morning with developing convection across southern MN (see
forthcoming MCD #472 for short-term details). Heating and advection
of 60s deg F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
will support the development of a moderately to very unstable
airmass from IA-IL northward into the upper MS Valley to the east of
the front and southeast of the low. Upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast immediately ahead of the front with strengthening
flow aloft, strongly favoring organized storms, including
supercells. Recent model guidance continues to show the development
of discrete supercells later this afternoon ahead of the front over
parts of central/northern WI near the low, and farther south in the
vicinity of eastern IA into adjacent portions of WI/northwest IL.
All hazards will be possible with this potential activity, including
the possibility for an intense tornado. Large to giant hail will be
possible with supercells. Other storms likely to evolve quickly
into a band of severe thunderstorms will develop farther west and
push east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend
to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS-OK eastward into the lower MO Valley...
Continued moistening and heating of an airmass to the east of a
dryline/cold front and associated triple point will lead to a very
unstable airmass from OK into KS by early to mid afternoon. A
capping inversion will likely inhibit storm development until mid
afternoon near the front. Initial storm development will likely be
supercellular near the triple point before a more extensive band of
cellular storms develops along the boundary. Both a supercell and
QLCS tornado risk is apparent given the appreciably large
CAPE/shear. A coalescing of cold pools and intensification of a
squall line with embedded surges and bowing segments may result in
focused swaths of more intense severe gusts (i.e., locally 75-90
mph) from south-central and eastern KS into west-central MO.
Farther south, a more conditional setup south of the triple point
along the dryline is expected. Large to giant hail could accompany
any mature/sustained supercell along with a tornado risk.
Eventually the front will sweep southeastward with a convective line
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the Upper Midwest southward across the lower
Missouri Valley into central Great Plains. Initially this may be
accompanied by a risk for large to giant hail and a few strong
tornadoes, before severe wind gusts 60 to 90 mph become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a front bisecting MN north to
south to a low near the NE-IA-SD border, with the front extending
southwestward into the central High Plains. Water-vapor imagery
shows a prominent upper trough near the MT-ND border
south-southwestward into eastern UT. A belt of increasingly strong
southwesterly 500-mb flow will overspread a destabilizing warm
sector today as the upper trough eventually reaches the Upper
Midwest and central Great Plains late tonight. Concurrently, the
aforementioned cyclone will develop northeast to Lake Superior as a
warm front over IA advances northward into the western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, the cold front will sweep southeast reaching the central
Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great Plains by early
Saturday.
...Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley...
A northward expanding warm/moist sector on the nose of a 50+ kt
southerly LLJ will continue to destabilize as large-scale ascent
approaches from the west. A large-hail threat may develop this
morning with developing convection across southern MN (see
forthcoming MCD #472 for short-term details). Heating and advection
of 60s deg F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates
will support the development of a moderately to very unstable
airmass from IA-IL northward into the upper MS Valley to the east of
the front and southeast of the low. Upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast immediately ahead of the front with strengthening
flow aloft, strongly favoring organized storms, including
supercells. Recent model guidance continues to show the development
of discrete supercells later this afternoon ahead of the front over
parts of central/northern WI near the low, and farther south in the
vicinity of eastern IA into adjacent portions of WI/northwest IL.
All hazards will be possible with this potential activity, including
the possibility for an intense tornado. Large to giant hail will be
possible with supercells. Other storms likely to evolve quickly
into a band of severe thunderstorms will develop farther west and
push east coincident with the front. Damaging wind gusts will tend
to become more prevalent during the evening with linear storm modes.
Some tornado risk may continue into the evening as maturing bands of
storms yield a threat for bowing segments and embedded mesovortices,
before this activity gradually diminishes late as it moves east into
IN/Lower MI late.
...KS-OK eastward into the lower MO Valley...
Continued moistening and heating of an airmass to the east of a
dryline/cold front and associated triple point will lead to a very
unstable airmass from OK into KS by early to mid afternoon. A
capping inversion will likely inhibit storm development until mid
afternoon near the front. Initial storm development will likely be
supercellular near the triple point before a more extensive band of
cellular storms develops along the boundary. Both a supercell and
QLCS tornado risk is apparent given the appreciably large
CAPE/shear. A coalescing of cold pools and intensification of a
squall line with embedded surges and bowing segments may result in
focused swaths of more intense severe gusts (i.e., locally 75-90
mph) from south-central and eastern KS into west-central MO.
Farther south, a more conditional setup south of the triple point
along the dryline is expected. Large to giant hail could accompany
any mature/sustained supercell along with a tornado risk.
Eventually the front will sweep southeastward with a convective line
yielding a risk for wind/hail.
..Smith/Dean.. 04/17/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A dry, continental airmass will persist across most of the CONUS for
the first part of next week. Severe weather chances will start to
increase by the middle of the week and into the later part of the
week. Forecast guidance consistently shows mid 60s F dewpoints
across the Plains and into the Midwest. However, aloft the pattern
remains quite uncertain. The ECMWF and the GEFS and EPS all show a
developing large-scale trough centered across the western CONUS with
multiple shortwave troughs which could result in severe weather
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri. However, the 00Z GFS and the EC-AIFS show a
consolidated mid-level trough which could result in a much more
substantial severe weather event across the central/southern Plains.
At this time, uncertainty is too high for specific risk areas, but
Day6/Wed to Day 8/Fri will likely feature multiple days of severe
weather across portions of the central/southern Plains.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to
southeast Canada during the day on Sunday. A cold front is forecast
to initially exist from southeast Virginia to the Florida Panhandle.
The cold front will move into the Atlantic and Gulf as surface high
pressure builds in its wake.
Some lingering moisture and weak instability will likely be present
ahead of the front Sunday morning. By late morning, heating may be
sufficient for some storms along and ahead of the front. However,
given the weak instability, no severe weather is expected. This
front will continue southeast into the Atlantic/Gulf by late
afternoon and bring an end to any storm threat across the CONUS
(except for the Florida Peninsula).
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move towards the upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley as temporary upper ridging builds over the West.
Enhanced southwest winds ahead of an eastward progressing cold front
will pose an Elevated fire weather threat across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the wake of the aforementioned upper
trough, a post-frontal dry airmass and northerly flow will promote
Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central
Plains.
...Central Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph
and RH of 15-25 percent over dry fuels will pose an Elevated fire
weather threat for portions of central NE, eastern CO, and western
KS on Saturday. However, the areal extent of fire weather highlights
may change as forecast precipitation (and perhaps some snowfall) on
Day 1/Friday may provide some relief to fuel conditions.
...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled
with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH are
expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across much of
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At peak heating, widespread RH
of less than 30 percent will combine with southwesterly winds of
10-15 mph atop receptive fuels. A prolonged period of above normal
temperatures and lack of appreciable rainfall continues to
exacerbate fuel conditions across this region.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. During the afternoon, surface pressure gradients will
tighten across much of the High Plains with a cold front progressing
southwestward into southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This
will promote Critical fire weather conditions throughout eastern New
Mexico, Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. A second shortwave impulse
will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and
some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern Plains...
As the upper trough moves east of the Rockies, increasing mid level
flow will overspread much of the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a strengthening low will quickly traverse the upper
Midwest, dragging a cold front southward. Poor expected overnight
humidity recoveries will encourage RH in the single digits by peak
afternoon heating combined with strong southwest winds of 20-25 mph
(gusts up 40 mph). These conditions amid receptive fuels will
support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the region on
Friday. As the cold front passes through Friday evening, an abrupt
northerly wind shift with strong gusts of up to 40 mph continuing
for a few hours could impact any ongoing wildfires. However, higher
relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front are
expected to improve the fire weather environment into the overnight
hours.
Farther north, gusty post-frontal northerly winds are expected over
parts of the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly throughout
the day as temperatures cool. Brief locally elevated fire weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry.
...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, westerly flow aloft
will linger over the Appalachians with weak lee surface troughing.
Westerly winds of 10 mph (gusts up to 20 mph) and decreasing RH to
less than 30 percent are expected by peak heating. These conditions
atop a drought ridden landscape and exceptionally dry fuels will
support an Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.
Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell
structures.
Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
possible today into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest
southward across the lower Missouri Valley into central Great
Plains. Initially this may be accompanied by a risk for large hail
and a few strong tornadoes, before damaging wind gusts become the
most prominent hazard by this evening.
...Discussion...
A couple of notable short wave perturbations have emerged from
splitting larger-scale mid-level troughing now overspreading the
northern Rockies and Great Basin. One, including a remnant embedded
cyclonic circulation, is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward
into and across the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. The
other is still digging into the eastern Great Basin, but forecast to
turn across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies during the day, before
shearing northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. It appears that
this will be preceded by several lower amplitude impulses already
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
In lower-levels, a significant cold front is already surging
southward to the lee of the northern Rockies and forecast to advance
across much of the remainder of the northern Great Plains by 12Z
this morning. Models indicate that significant cyclogenesis may
subsequently ensue northwest/north of Lake Superior toward James Bay
later today through tonight. At the same time, it appears that a
secondary frontal wave will migrate northeast of the mid Missouri
Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Another lee
cyclone may attempt to form near/north of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity, but probably will be overtaken by the southward
surging cold front before migrating out of the high plains.
The northward advection of relatively moist low-level air is ongoing
from the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri
Valley, and forecast to continue spreading northward within a
pre-cold frontal plume through portions of the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region by this afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, this may
contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE within a corridor from the
east central Great Plains through the mid/upper Mississippi Valley
by this afternoon.
There is notable spread among the various model output concerning
most of these developments, which may have a significant impact on
the convective evolution and associated severe weather potential
today through tonight. However, potential exists for widespread
convective development capable of producing damaging surface gusts,
large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest vicinity...
It appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls may
shift from western Iowa north-northeastward through western
Wisconsin by early this afternoon, accompanied by substantive
boundary-layer destabilization and strengthening southerly low-level
wind fields with enlarging hodographs. Based on the latest model
output, including convection allowing guidance, it appears that this
may contribute to a window of opportunity for discrete supercell
development within an environment potentially conducive to strong
tornadoes, before activity grows upscale and eventually outpaces the
northeastward boundary-layer destabilization.
...Central Great Plains through middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
Uncertainty lingers concerning how quickly the surface cold front
will tend to undercut a developing corridor of stronger pre-frontal
surface heating and destabilization, particularly across the central
into southern Great Plains. However, by early this afternoon, this
corridor appears likely to develop along an axis from south central
Kansas toward northwestern Missouri, providing a focus for rapidly
developing storms including supercells. Initially this may include
hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter, and potential for a few
tornadoes before convection grows upscale, spreads east of the axis
of maximum instability and also become undercut by the front.
Perhaps aided by forcing associated with one of the perturbations
emerging from lower latitudes, there appears a signal in model
output that the upscale growing convection may eventually become
better organized with one or two notable mesoscale convective
vortices evolving while spreading ahead of the front across and
northeast of the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon and
evening. Downward mixing of strengthening rear-inflow, within a
sheared ambient southwesterly deep-layer mean flow already on the
order of 35-40 kt, widespread strong to severe wind gusts appear
possible, with strongest gusts and/or perhaps brief tornadoes
accompanying evolving mesovortices along the gust front.
The cold front/dryline intersection may become another focus for
discrete supercell development across parts of south central Kansas
into adjacent northwestern Oklahoma by late afternoon. However, the
extent of the associated severe weather potential will depend on how
quickly this activity is overtaken by the cold front.
..Kerr/Lyons.. 04/17/2026
Read more
