Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 16 16:27:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...portions of western Tennessee/Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161611Z - 161745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk to increase through the early afternoon. Primary risks will include large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite across southern Missouri shows an area of deepening cu development, with a few smaller cells with occasional lightning developing east of Springfield. The 12z RAOB from SGF (Springfield, MO) shows MLCIN in place, which can still be observed in surface objective analysis. With additional heating/mixing and cooling aloft with the approaching shortwave, this is expected to erode over the next couple of hours. HREF guidance suggests that a cluster of thunderstorms may develop by early afternoon before moving south and eastward into northern Arkansas as forcing for ascent increases. Forecast soundings depict linearly elongated hodographs and steep low to mid-level hodographs, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Through time, it is likely that storms will cluster with an increase in damaging wind potential. Additional thunderstorms will be possible near the OK/AR border this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed to cover these threats. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35679001 35269132 34989266 35009340 35079404 35239437 35589446 36039459 36599456 37359301 37349293 37459249 37499175 37499137 37139014 36728949 36018957 35679001 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Central and northern High Plains... A surface low will deepen in the northern and central Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level trough currently traversing the Northern Rockies. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft and consolidating surface pressure gradient will aid in developing gusty south to southwest winds accompanied by a dry, well-mixed boundary later across much of the central and northern Plains this afternoon. A corridor of stronger southerly winds is expected across portions of eastern SD and southwestern MN although RH reductions should be limited to the 20-25% range this afternoon. Nonetheless, receptive fuels coupled with the increasing southerly winds in place could support wildfire spread, necessitating a northeastward extension of Elevated Highlights into this region. ...Southern Plains... Lee surface troughing extends southward from the evolving surface low in the Northern Plains into the central and southern High Plains. A considerably drier boundary layer and supportive downslope trajectories will allow for Critical fire weather conditions across portions of eastern CO, northeastern NM and OK/TX Panhandles. Poor relative humidity recoveries were observed across portions of the southern High Plains, with current RH at 10% or below across southeastern NM and northwest TX. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph amid the presence of a 90F+ low-level thermal ridge and RH dropping into the single digits during peak heating this afternoon, will support critical fire weather conditions. Critical and corresponding Elevated Highlights were nudged southward into portions of Northwest TX to account for current surface observation trends and near term model guidance. The forecast remains on track for an elevated fire weather threat across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic with no changes to current highlights. Please see previous discussion for additional details. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen as it moves into the southern Great Basin/Four Corners today and tonight. As the trough intensifies, an initially modest subtropical jet will strengthen across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will deepen across SD as an associated cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Another shortwave trough will move over the eastern US bolstering low-level winds across parts of the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. ...Central and Southern High Plains... As upper forcing from the approaching trough spreads over the Rockies into the plains, the surface low will deepen and move southeastward with the cold front. This should encourage a broad area of strong west/southwesterly downslope winds from eastern WY and SD, into parts of the central Plains. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH are expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, supporting critical fire weather concerns. Fire-weather conditions will gradually end overnight from north to south as the front moves south with the surface low. Farther south across OK/TX and NM, a surface pressure trough will encourage gusty westerly low-level flow. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely as the surface low gradually moves southward ahead of the cold front. Low RH is also expected (10-15%) owing to downslope trajectories and warm afternoon temperatures. While some areas have seen rainfall in the past few days, several days of poor humidity recoveries and gusty winds have allowed for significant drying and a broad area of critical fuels. ...Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic... Strengthening southwesterly flow at the base of the shortwave tough will encourage strengthening of a lee trough. This will aid gusty downslope winds of 10-15 mph through the afternoon. Afternoon RH values will drop to 25-30%. With little recent rainfall and very dry fuels, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. More localized fire-weather conditions could extend into southern and central PA. However, here increased RH and weaker winds amid areas of recent rainfall should limit broader concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. ...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Mid South... Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket (-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon. The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid evening. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly 100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026 Read more

MD 0419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA...southern WI...and northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 141756Z - 142000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of producing several tornadoes (some strong to intense), giant hail, and severe wind gusts will increase by around 19-22Z. A tornado watch is likely within the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary. The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially, very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually, thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of damaging wind swaths. A tornado watch will be issued within the next couple hours. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41219309 41419361 41849390 42349386 42679350 43349177 43819045 43798943 43548877 42948850 42438870 41938916 41309166 41219309 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0420 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141803Z - 141930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Multiple damaging gusts may accompany an MCS over the next few hours. While the efficiency in severe gust production is in question, convective trends will be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection has developed and become established immediately ahead of an eastward tracking MCV. This MCS will track eastward along a corridor of modest deep-layer shear and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the relatively lower-end buoyancy/shear parameter space, it is not clear how efficient the MCS will be at producing damaging or especially severe gusts. However, KCLE cross-sectional storm relative velocity data does depict weak descending rear-inflow features, and the deep-layer shear vector is oriented roughly normal to the orientation of the leading line. As such, some damaging (and perhaps severe) gust potential exists. There is also a chance for an instance or two of hail. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance, but the severe threat may be too isolated to warrant an issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40517981 40378100 40378187 40518238 40698264 40898287 41088295 41298279 41428234 41808096 41898011 41767919 41377898 40827929 40517981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0421 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau into Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141824Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a dryline this afternoon will pose a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. A watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and GLM Flash data indicate ongoing thunderstorm development across the Chisos Mountains within the Texas Big Bend region. Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along a dryline across much of West Texas and across the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the low/mid-80s F and dewpoints in the mid-60s F underneath steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater). Effective bulk shear of 35-45+ kts and straight, elongated hodographs will support supercells (both left- and right-moving) capable of large to very large hail of 2-3+ inches in diameter and severe wind gusts. A gradually strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will likely support at least some increase in the tornado threat later this evening, especially with any persistent, discrete supercell(s); however, the core of the low-level jet is forecast to be displaced farther to the northeast. Thus, the magnitude of the tornado threat remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Regardless, watch issuance will likely be needed by 21z. With time, some gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with ongoing storms, with an associated increase in the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29240278 29050292 28950320 29200328 29920317 31950219 32480174 32990115 33240047 33219980 33049926 32809907 32549902 31809967 31200022 30590082 30160132 29880156 29650193 29700241 29510262 29240278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0422 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central IL into northern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141855Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk. While confidence in overall storm development/coverage and evolution remains uncertain, a watch issuance is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the vicinity of a remnant/increasingly diffuse outflow boundary draped across parts of northern/central IL, weak low-level warm advection is promoting gradually deepening cumulus and isolated convective initiation in central IL. Based on the motion of these echoes and character of the cumulus on day cloud phase imagery, this activity may be rooted above the boundary layer. Nevertheless, temperatures climbing into the lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints will continue to erode inhibition at the base of the EML and could eventually support a transition to surface-based updrafts. If this were to occur, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) would initially favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- with a risk of very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will result in enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and an increasing supercell-tornado risk. With all that said, the limited/nebulous synoptic and mesoscale ascent casts uncertainty on storm development/coverage and overall evolution -- especially given lingering inhibition. Convective and environmental trends are being monitored, and a watch issuance is possible this afternoon. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39088910 39288995 39649033 40049057 40599064 41049034 41428980 41578728 41458650 41168587 40298545 39698564 39418603 39088910 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into parts of New York. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern will persist on Thursday, with a leading shortwave trough moving quickly across OH valley into the Northeast. This wave will breakdown the ridge along the East Coast, and provide a focus for scattered strong storms. Low-level warm advection out of the west/southwest will help destabilize the region with storms most likely during the afternoon from the Lower Great Lake across much of upstate NY and northern PA. Instability will be sufficient to support a few fast-moving cells capable of marginal hail and locally damaging gusts. To the southeast, storm coverage is less certain, particularly from AR/MO into the lower OH Valley. Here, cool temperatures aloft will linger, aiding instability, though somewhat behind the upper trough affecting the northeastern states. Showers and storms are most likely in the morning in association with the main wave, but conditional severe probabilities will be higher during the afternoon when instability redevelops. Any storms that form will be capable of producing hail, from MO into AR, western TN/KY, IL and IN. ..Jewell.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...South-central CO into portions of the Southern High Plains... A very narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the lee of the southern Rockies on Day 2/Wednesday as gap winds increase in the afternoon. Downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph will combine with RH of around 15 percent atop receptive fuels, supporting the expansion of Elevated fire weather highlights. Farther east, forecast guidance is depicting RH of 10-15 percent and 15-20 mph westerly winds to overlap portions of western OK where fuels are dry and receptive. Elevated highlights have been expanded to account for this threat. ...Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for much of the region as southwesterly winds of around 10 mph (localized gusts up to 20 mph) and low RH of 25-35 percent (localized areas less than 25 percent) overlap 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Given the widespread nature of receptive fuels and multiple days of near record high temperatures, Elevated highlights have been expanded. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most other areas reaching only 15-20%. ...Piedmont... Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon. ...Southeast Wyoming... Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon. While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns, there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which lowers confidence in the overall risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0108 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY PA VT 141850Z - 150200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Connecticut Western Massachusetts New York Far Northeast Pennsylvania Southern Vermont * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity while posing a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds. Peak gusts could reach up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may occur with any supercells along/near a front in northern New York/southern Vermont. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Glens Falls NY to 25 miles west southwest of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day. Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints along the length of the stationary front. ...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL... A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level wind fields. Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado will be possible. ...From WI/IL eastward into PA... Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL, IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed. ..Jewell.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and swaths of severe/damaging gusts are all likely, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... An active severe weather day is anticipated for much of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. The primary upper trough centered over the Four Corners late this morning will eject east-northeastward towards the southern/central Plains by this evening, while a separate mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will also move east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes into Ontario. Another convectively enhanced low-amplitude shortwave trough will also develop eastward across the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast. Recent surface analysis indicates multiple surface lows, with one over southern Ontario and another over southeast NE/northeast KS. A seasonably rich/moist low-level airmass exists to the south of a front extending between these two lows, with surface dewpoints already in the low to mid 60s across much of the southern/central Plains to the east of a dryline. Both the dryline in the southern/central Plains and developing warm front in the Midwest/southern Great Lakes will likely serve as foci for intense thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, including the potential for several supercells. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... A complex scenario for severe thunderstorms remains apparent across the Midwest/OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes today, with multiple outflow boundaries from earlier convection rendering greater than usual uncertainty with the southward extent of possible thunderstorm development in IL/IN/OH. In general, continued low-level warm advection from the central Plains into the Midwest/OH Valley will support a moistening/destabilizing airmass through the afternoon as a northern-stream shortwave trough moves eastward across the Upper Midwest. A surface warm front will extend northeastward from a weak surface low in IA across southern WI and Lower MI. It still appears likely that multiple intense supercells will develop by 20-21Z along/near this boundary in IA/southern WI/northern IL in a very favorable airmass for significant severe hail given strong deep-layer shear and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level shear is expected to gradually strengthen through the evening in tandem with a modestly increasing south-southwesterly low-level jet. Any supercells than can remain on the warm/south side of the front will be capable of producing tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF-2/3). Some consideration was given to including greater tornado probabilities and a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) focused across southern WI/far northern IL. But, convection may have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly this evening, so confidence was not high enough for a categorical upgrade at this time. Regardless, very large to giant hail (potentially up to 3-4 inches in diameter) will be a threat with sustained supercells, and a swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with a convective cluster spreading eastward across southern Lower MI this evening into tonight. A somewhat separate area of severe potential should also exist farther south across central IL into IN/OH this afternoon and evening. Greater low-level moisture and related instability are expected to exist across these areas compared to locations farther north. While large-scale forcing should remain fairly weak/nebulous across this region, a remnant outflow boundary may provide a focus for supercell development across central IL into IN by 20-21Z. Have expanded the Slight Risk for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes southward across these areas to account for this still somewhat uncertain potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... 12Z observed soundings from DRT/MAF/FWD/OUN/TOP show the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (generally 14-15 g/kg mean mixing ratios) along/east of the surface dryline. Southwesterly mid-level flow and modest ascent preceding the upper trough over the Southwest/southern Rockies will gradually overspread the warm sector by mid to late afternoon. Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, locally stronger possible) and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will support multiple intense supercells. Explosive convective initiation across parts of western OK into south-central/southeast KS is expected by 20-21Z as lingering MLCIN erodes with filtered daytime heating and as convective temperatures are breached. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears quite favorable for very large to potentially giant hail (up to 3-4 inches in diameter) with any supercells that spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. A gradually strengthening low-level jet across OK/KS by 00Z will also support a threat for a few tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong as low-level hodographs become enlarged. Gradual upscale growth/clustering should occur with time through the evening, with some risk for severe/damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded a bit northeastward into south-central/southeast KS for a focused severe wind corridor. Farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, isolated to scattered supercells may develop this afternoon and evening, with a risk for mainly large to very large hail and occasional severe gusts. ...Northeast... Ongoing convection across southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes will continue to track eastward this afternoon into NY and parts of New England in tandem with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. Gradual clearing of low/mid-level clouds has already encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the 70s along/south of west-east oriented front. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity as weak to locally moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear support organized updrafts, including the potential for some supercells initially. The greatest severe risk will probably be scattered damaging winds given a tendency for convection to consolidate into one or more clusters. But, an isolated severe hail threat may exist with any sustained supercell, along with some chance for a tornado or two near the front where low-level shear will be locally enhanced. ..Gleason/Chalmers.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Morning Update... No changes have been made to the previous forecast. In the southern Plains, poor overnight humidity recoveries and strong winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) this morning will further intensify the fire weather threat, especially across southeastern CO and adjacent High Plains. A cold front will push through eastern CO this evening with winds shifting from west/southwesterly to northerly at 15-20 mph. While RH and cloud cover will increase behind the front, the initial wind shift could impact ongoing wildfires. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow will continue into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast Colorado into central Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of 20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk. ...Southwest into southern High Plains... Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire weather threat during the afternoon. ...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 14 13:50:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 14 13:50:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes. ...Midwest... An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity. Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary. Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes. ...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas... Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking, strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize. Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells. ..Smith/Dean.. 04/14/2026 Read more