Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...AND THE PECOS VALLEY/RIO GRANDE VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered areas of scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development are expected to generally wane through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... ...Parts of Upstate New York into western New England... Forcing for ascent accompanying a weak frontal wave is maintaining an area of scattered stronger storms now overspreading areas to the northwest of Albany NY, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Instability sampled in the evening sounding from Albany is rather weak, but profiles might still be supportive of at least some risk for localized severe wind and hail into mid/late evening as forcing overspreads parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and adjacent Maine. ...Ozark Plateau into Mid South... The primary east-southeastward propagating organized storm cluster appears to be in the process of weakening, as southeasterly near surface updraft inflow across middle Tennessee becomes less unstable. However, renewed thunderstorm development persists along and to the cool side of the trailing convective outflow across the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, with additional attempts along a diffuse zone of differential surface heating extending westward across northern Arkansas. This is occurring beneath warming and more strongly capping lower/mid-tropospheric air, but given inflow of potentially sizable CAPE, in the presence of moderate westerly shear, there remains at least some risk for supercell development capable of producing large hail this evening. ...West Texas... Potential for sustained severe thunderstorm development appears low along the retreating dryline across parts of northwest Texas into the South Plains overnight. ..Kerr.. 04/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...AND THE PECOS VALLEY/RIO GRANDE VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered areas of scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development are expected to generally wane through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... ...Parts of Upstate New York into western New England... Forcing for ascent accompanying a weak frontal wave is maintaining an area of scattered stronger storms now overspreading areas to the northwest of Albany NY, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Instability sampled in the evening sounding from Albany is rather weak, but profiles might still be supportive of at least some risk for localized severe wind and hail into mid/late evening as forcing overspreads parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and adjacent Maine. ...Ozark Plateau into Mid South... The primary east-southeastward propagating organized storm cluster appears to be in the process of weakening, as southeasterly near surface updraft inflow across middle Tennessee becomes less unstable. However, renewed thunderstorm development persists along and to the cool side of the trailing convective outflow across the Missouri Bootheel vicinity, with additional attempts along a diffuse zone of differential surface heating extending westward across northern Arkansas. This is occurring beneath warming and more strongly capping lower/mid-tropospheric air, but given inflow of potentially sizable CAPE, in the presence of moderate westerly shear, there remains at least some risk for supercell development capable of producing large hail this evening. ...West Texas... Potential for sustained severe thunderstorm development appears low along the retreating dryline across parts of northwest Texas into the South Plains overnight. ..Kerr.. 04/17/2026 Read more

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK AND VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...Upstate New York and Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162250Z - 170015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this evening across upstate New York and into Vermont. The need for a watch is uncertain, but this area will be monitored closely over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A couple of individual storms/small clusters have formed and moved eastward into upstate NY during the past 30-60 minutes, just ahead of a cold front and on the east edge of the thicker clouds. Surface temperatures have peaked in the low 80s to the south of a diffuse baroclinic zone near the CWA border for Albany and Burlington, where surface dewpoints have held near 60 F. This is contributing to moderate buoyancy across upstate NY ahead of the ongoing storms. Regional VWPs show relatively long hodographs that will favor supercell potential, and enough low-level shear for a low-end tornado threat. Otherwise, isolated wind damage and large hail will be the main threats. It is not clear if storm coverage/intensity will increase from what is already observed, so the need for a watch is still uncertain. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 44337413 44417378 44427344 44187291 43597275 43377284 43217303 43137363 43157455 43237500 43487514 43847490 44117465 44337413 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes over the weekend while a cold front sweeps into the Mid Atlantic by early next week. Enhanced southwest winds ahead of the cold front should maintain a fire weather concern for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Day 3/Saturday where fuels remain very dry. Stronger northwest winds and a dry air mass in the wake of the upper trough should bring an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the central High Plains on Saturday, where little to no precipitation is expected. Dry return flow on the western periphery of broad surface high pressure across the eastern U.S. will bring fire weather concerns to portions of the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Persistent northwest flow should bring dry and breezy conditions into early next week across portions of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Day 3/Saturday... ...Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Dry, post-frontal northwesterly flow will pose a fire weather concern for portions of NE, eastern CO and KS on Day 3/Saturday, where a lack of precipitation maintains receptive fuels prompting the addition of 40% critical probabilities. Farther east, increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH should bring a fire weather threat across much of the Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic. Lack of recent and expected rainfall continues to exacerbate fuel conditions across this region. ...Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday... ...Southern Plains... Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area encompassing much of the southern High Plains. ...Southeast... A fire weather threat should persist in the absence of meaningful precipitation over the weekend. Dry post-frontal north/northwest flow amid exceptionally dry fuels and drought necessitated introduction of 40% critical probabilities from central GA into the Piedmont region of the Carolinas. Thunderstorms along the cold front over the weekend could produce a few ignitions across the Appalachian region over the weekend. However, wetting rains are more probable given lack of dry sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporative effects and overall higher atmospheric water content. The deep layer northwest (offshore) flow aloft will support continued dry and breezy conditions across the Southeast Day 5/Monday, where two targeted 40% critical probabilities were added. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Dry and breezy conditions ahead the next upper trough could reemerge across the Southwest and Southern Plains as midweek approaches. However, forecast uncertainty in timing and progression through the West limits predictability of fire weather impacts across the region for the middle of next week, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will move into the Great Lakes over the weekend while a cold front sweeps into the Mid Atlantic by early next week. Enhanced southwest winds ahead of the cold front should maintain a fire weather concern for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Day 3/Saturday where fuels remain very dry. Stronger northwest winds and a dry air mass in the wake of the upper trough should bring an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the central High Plains on Saturday, where little to no precipitation is expected. Dry return flow on the western periphery of broad surface high pressure across the eastern U.S. will bring fire weather concerns to portions of the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Persistent northwest flow should bring dry and breezy conditions into early next week across portions of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Day 3/Saturday... ...Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Dry, post-frontal northwesterly flow will pose a fire weather concern for portions of NE, eastern CO and KS on Day 3/Saturday, where a lack of precipitation maintains receptive fuels prompting the addition of 40% critical probabilities. Farther east, increasing southwest flow ahead of an advancing cold front coupled with the lack of Gulf moisture return and resultant low RH should bring a fire weather threat across much of the Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic. Lack of recent and expected rainfall continues to exacerbate fuel conditions across this region. ...Day 4-5/Sunday-Monday... ...Southern Plains... Lee surface troughing across the central/northern High Plains as high pressure settles into eastern TX will support a broad southerly return flow across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday. The enhanced south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph, low RH amid a well-mixed boundary layer and continued receptive fuelscape supports a higher likelihood of critical fire weather conditions across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest KS. 70% critical probabilities were introduced within the broader 40% area encompassing much of the southern High Plains. ...Southeast... A fire weather threat should persist in the absence of meaningful precipitation over the weekend. Dry post-frontal north/northwest flow amid exceptionally dry fuels and drought necessitated introduction of 40% critical probabilities from central GA into the Piedmont region of the Carolinas. Thunderstorms along the cold front over the weekend could produce a few ignitions across the Appalachian region over the weekend. However, wetting rains are more probable given lack of dry sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporative effects and overall higher atmospheric water content. The deep layer northwest (offshore) flow aloft will support continued dry and breezy conditions across the Southeast Day 5/Monday, where two targeted 40% critical probabilities were added. ...Day 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... Dry and breezy conditions ahead the next upper trough could reemerge across the Southwest and Southern Plains as midweek approaches. However, forecast uncertainty in timing and progression through the West limits predictability of fire weather impacts across the region for the middle of next week, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0465 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri...northern Arkansas...and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127... Valid 162022Z - 162215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and damaging wind continues within W127. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across southern Missouri into northeastern Arkansas. A few discrete supercells have developed, with history of hail 2-2.75 inches in diameter. Given the moderate to strong instability and steep lapse rates across the region from western MO/AR to the Mississippi River, expect supercells to continue to pose a threat for large to very large hail over the next couple of hours. Though areas of stable billow clouds continue across western Arkansas, a few attempts at initiation have been noted. Guidance continues to indicate that a few isolated cells could develop across this region later in the afternoon. Threats here would similarly be fore large to very large hail. Storms may cluster through time, with a change in mode and shift more of a damaging wind threat. Further east across western KY into western TN, less favorable air and decreasing moisture should limit the severe risk with eastern extent. Local expansion of WW127 may be needed in western TN/KY if storms progress into this region by late afternoon/evening. ..Thornton.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 38189050 38068996 37798913 37628892 37328889 36978890 36678899 36058978 35759243 36019353 36249366 36639352 37019339 37229330 37999244 38239194 38189050 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Lower Michigan into northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162033Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon. Coverage of severe should be quite sparse at best, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicells have intensified under a cold pocket aloft associated with a mid-level trough as they overspread a mixed boundary layer. 20Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates reaching 8 C/km ahead of the ongoing storms, which have a history of producing measured surface gusts up to 40 kts (per AZO ASOS). The current thinking is that similar gusts may continue with these storms for at least a couple more hours given the aforementioned lapse rates. A 50+ kt gust cannot be ruled out. Still, the coverage of 50+ kt gusts (if any occur) should be too sparse to warrant a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42548558 42198407 41888366 41498358 41058376 40738420 40658470 40728540 40958588 41428623 41688624 42548558 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0467 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127... Valid 162040Z - 162245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated risk for supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind through the late afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been noted across southwestern OK over the last 1-2 hours. Forcing in this region is generally weak, with the shortwave trough to the north and dry mid-level air noted in water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, strong daytime heating has occurred (with temperature in the 80s). This in combination with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s has yielded MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg amid strong deep layer shear around 40 kts. Guidance suggests that an isolated supercell or two could develop within this region. Conditionally, these would support a risk for large hail and damaging wind. This area will be monitored for potential development and need for watch extension. ..Thornton.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34619254 35199253 35509269 35759291 35959338 36059366 36099470 34959567 34399580 33959558 33889508 33849473 34049323 34619254 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0468 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162053Z - 162200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind possible through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...While forcing for ascent is generally weak across western Texas, convective development is noted near Ft. Stockton and Trans Pecos along the higher terrain near the dryline. The air mass is characterized by moderate to strong CAPE and deep layer shear around 35 to 40 kts. This will support potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe winds. Given the risk will likely remain isolated, a watch is not anticipated at this time but trends will be monitored. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29330402 29840394 31640256 32160203 32480115 31890063 31110079 29290024 28780064 29590158 29650252 29000293 28960360 29330402 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0469 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Pennsylvania into southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162057Z - 162200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible over the next couple of hours. However, the environment downstream of the ongoing storms does not appear particularly favorable for severe. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection has failed to materialize across NY up to this point, possibly due to a boundary layer that is too dry to support convective initiation. A line of low-topped thunderstorms along a surface trough has organized along the PA/OH border, and is quickly progressing east-northeast. A few damaging gust reports have been received within the past hour in northwest PA. However, the ongoing line of storms is approaching an even drier airmass, characterized by upper 40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints. As such, confidence in sustenance of the ongoing storms is not overly high. Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance should the storms maintain their intensity. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41128005 41787928 42217869 42507807 42767661 42657640 42427633 41997664 41577724 41247809 41017970 41128005 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 ..THORNTON..04/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-037-045-047-049-055-063-065- 067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-127-129-131-135- 137-141-143-145-147-149-162140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI NEWTON PERRY POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF YELL ILC003-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-162140- Read more

WW 0127 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 127 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465 ..THORNTON..04/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 127 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-021-023-029-031-033-037-045-047-049-055-063-065- 067-071-075-083-087-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-127-129-131-135- 137-141-143-145-147-149-162140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD CROSS FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI NEWTON PERRY POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF YELL ILC003-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-162140- Read more

WW 127 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO 161900Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Far Southern Illinois Extreme Western Kentucky Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing, with additional development anticipated across the region this afternoon. Strong buoyancy coupled with moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support organized storm structures capable of large to very large hail. Some bowing linear segments, with an attendant risk for damaging gusts, are possible with time. The tornado threat is expected to remain low, but still non-zero. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northwest of Poplar Bluff MO to 40 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Very large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms over the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...20Z Update... The SLGT in the Ozarks/Mid-South was expanded northward into central MO, where an isolated supercell with a risk of very large hail and damaging gusts has emerged along the northern periphery of a remnant cold pool. Farther south within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127, several discrete/splitting supercells continue to pose a risk of very large hail (recent report of 2.75 inches) and locally damaging wind gusts. With time, this activity may congeal into a loosely organized cluster, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts. The MRGL risk was also expanded slightly westward into southwest OK, where boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening. Any isolated storms that can form here will pose a risk of large to very large hail and severe downbursts. Finally, the MRGL was expanded slightly westward in southwest TX toward Fort Stockton. While convective initiation is still in question here, deepening boundary-layer cumulus along the higher terrain could result in an isolated storm or two, with a risk of very large hail. ..Weinman.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Very large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms over the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...20Z Update... The SLGT in the Ozarks/Mid-South was expanded northward into central MO, where an isolated supercell with a risk of very large hail and damaging gusts has emerged along the northern periphery of a remnant cold pool. Farther south within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127, several discrete/splitting supercells continue to pose a risk of very large hail (recent report of 2.75 inches) and locally damaging wind gusts. With time, this activity may congeal into a loosely organized cluster, with an increasing risk of damaging wind gusts. The MRGL risk was also expanded slightly westward into southwest OK, where boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening. Any isolated storms that can form here will pose a risk of large to very large hail and severe downbursts. Finally, the MRGL was expanded slightly westward in southwest TX toward Fort Stockton. While convective initiation is still in question here, deepening boundary-layer cumulus along the higher terrain could result in an isolated storm or two, with a risk of very large hail. ..Weinman.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South... Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place, resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of developing storms in this area, which match observational expectations as well. Large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells. Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present, supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time, supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region (particular eastern areas) as well. ...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians... Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve over time. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. ...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX... A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon, some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern Plains... Increasing mid-level southwesterly flow moves into the Great Plains Friday as an upper trough over the Intermountain West moves east. At the surface, an elongated surface trough and associated trailing cold front will stretch from the southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some mid/upper cloud cover will infiltrate the southern High Plains through tonight. This could lead to reduced boundary layer decoupling supporting elevated overnight surface winds and poor RH recoveries (perhaps staying below 30%) leading into Friday morning, particularly across eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern CO and western KS. These preconditioned fuels, already quite receptive to fire spread, combined with southwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts close to 40 mph and RH in the single digits by peak afternoon heating, will support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the southern High Plains Friday. A strong cold front will quickly push southward late in the day from a quasi-stationary position in southeastern CO and southern KS into the Southern Plains through Friday night. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the initial frontal passage and its potential impact to ongoing fires, with increasing cloud cover, higher relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front generally promoting an improved fire weather environment through Friday night. Only minor changes were made to the existing Critical and Elevated highlights across this region based on latest model guidance. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Westerly flow aloft in the wake of a departing short wave trough is expected to linger across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region Friday. Weak surface troughing in the lee of the Appalachians will support downslope drying and westerly winds of around 10 mph. Although strong winds are not expected, well above normal temperatures, persistently dry conditions and expanding drought have led to exceptionally dry fuels across the region. Relative humidity of around 25-30% is expected in downslope favored areas in the lee of the Appalachians. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated highlights was made into the coastal plains of VA and NC. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians and Carolinas. ...TX/NM... As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40 mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels. Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent updates. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Southern Plains... Increasing mid-level southwesterly flow moves into the Great Plains Friday as an upper trough over the Intermountain West moves east. At the surface, an elongated surface trough and associated trailing cold front will stretch from the southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Some mid/upper cloud cover will infiltrate the southern High Plains through tonight. This could lead to reduced boundary layer decoupling supporting elevated overnight surface winds and poor RH recoveries (perhaps staying below 30%) leading into Friday morning, particularly across eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles, southeastern CO and western KS. These preconditioned fuels, already quite receptive to fire spread, combined with southwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts close to 40 mph and RH in the single digits by peak afternoon heating, will support Critical fire weather conditions for much of the southern High Plains Friday. A strong cold front will quickly push southward late in the day from a quasi-stationary position in southeastern CO and southern KS into the Southern Plains through Friday night. Fire weather concerns should be limited to the initial frontal passage and its potential impact to ongoing fires, with increasing cloud cover, higher relative humidity and cooler temperatures behind the front generally promoting an improved fire weather environment through Friday night. Only minor changes were made to the existing Critical and Elevated highlights across this region based on latest model guidance. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Westerly flow aloft in the wake of a departing short wave trough is expected to linger across the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region Friday. Weak surface troughing in the lee of the Appalachians will support downslope drying and westerly winds of around 10 mph. Although strong winds are not expected, well above normal temperatures, persistently dry conditions and expanding drought have led to exceptionally dry fuels across the region. Relative humidity of around 25-30% is expected in downslope favored areas in the lee of the Appalachians. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated highlights was made into the coastal plains of VA and NC. ..Williams.. 04/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the central Appalachians and Carolinas. ...TX/NM... As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40 mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely within dry fuels. Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent updates. ...Central Appalachians... In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over northern areas, with some supercell potential. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will be possible on Saturday from the upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move toward the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on Saturday, with a cold front moving quickly east and extending from western NY/PA into KY/TN by 00Z. A narrow plume of upper 50s F to near 60 F dewpoints will exist and contribute to up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Storms will likely be ongoing early in the day along the front as it moves out of IN and into western OH/KY, and 40-50 kt southwest winds at 850 mb may support damaging gusts potential. Heating ahead of the front from OH/PA southward into WV/KY/TN may support new development, although lapse rates aloft over southern areas will be poor. Still, favorable deep-layer mean wind speeds and sufficient shear may support isolated severe gusts or marginal hail, especially into OH/western PA. Further, low-level shear will be strongest over northern areas, with some supercell potential. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level temperatures will already be relatively cool. During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI, with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday. The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms, including all modes of severe. ...From IA into WI and northwest IL... Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km, along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such, conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to indicate stronger tornado potential. Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible. ...OK/KS/MO... A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much of MO and into northern OK through the evening. ..Jewell.. 04/16/2026 Read more