Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail, several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes. ...Midwest... An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity. Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary. Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes. ...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas... Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking, strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize. Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and strengthening winds with height will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to account for hazards associated with supercells. ..Smith/Dean.. 04/14/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday. Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential. ...Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity... A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR DAY 5 GRAPHIC LABEL ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong upper trough oriented from Montana to the Southwest will eject eastward to the Plains on Friday/Friday night. Southwesterly mid/upper flow will intensify ahead of this feature, with 40-60 kt 850-700 mb flow forecast by late afternoon into the nighttime hours. A somewhat complex surface pattern is forecast, with a lee low deepening over the central/southern High Plains to western OK, and a second surface low near the Mid-Missouri Valley developing northeast into Ontario. A surface dryline will extend from the High Plains low to near the western OK/TX panhandle border into central TX by midday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be oriented from eastern MN into central KS at midday. Ahead of these surface features, a broad warm sector characterized by mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place as temperatures warm into the 80s F. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, resulting in moderate to strong destabilization. Forecast soundings indicated impressive wind profiles supporting supercells. Initial supercell storms capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected. During the evening, convection may grow upscale into a squall line as storms near the Mississippi River, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential. ...Day 5/Saturday - Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity... A severe risk will likely continue into Saturday as the upper trough continues to strengthen and shift east from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Strong deep-layer flow parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front will overspread a moist and at least weakly unstable downstream airmass through evening. This will favor a line of convection with damaging wind potential. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... The surface cold front will continue east on Sunday, moving offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoon. Severe potential appears limited by weak instability and mainly anafrontal precipitation across the Southeast to Eastern U.S. on Sunday. Surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary layer moisture in the wake of the cold front will preclude thunderstorm activity on Monday. By the end of the period, medium range guidance depicts another upper trough moving into the western U.S. and Gulf return flow will advect moisture back into the southern Plains. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Read more

MD 0417 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106...107... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WI ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast WI across southern Lake Michigan into southern Lower MI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...107... Valid 140650Z - 140815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106, 107 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may spread east-southeastward into southern Lower Michigan through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving line segment with occasional embedded circulations is moving across Milwaukee as of 0645 UTC. Area VWPs (KMKX, KMKE, KGRR) all depict strong low-level southwesterly flow, with 60+ kt noted at 1 km AGL. This strong low-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storm structures through the overnight hours. While MLCINH will continue to gradually increase with time and eastward extent, a seasonably warm and moist overnight boundary layer (with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg) may support a continued threat of damaging gusts into at least southwest Lower MI, after the line crosses the lake. A line-embedded tornado also remains possible, given the very strong low-level shear/SRH. Uncertainty remains regarding the longevity of the threat into a larger portion of southern Lower MI, given the presence of a more-stable boundary layer with eastward extent. However, with the potential for strongly sheared convection to persist overnight, local expansion of WW 107 and/or downstream watch issuance may be needed. ..Dean/Smith.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... LAT...LON 43668786 43638604 43528460 42868402 42458402 42248422 41918480 41908537 41968633 42148702 42398767 42728843 43668786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Ohio Valley. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates. ...Southern Plains vicinity... A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north TX into southern OK. ..Leitman.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the Ohio Valley. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates. ...Southern Plains vicinity... A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north TX into southern OK. ..Leitman.. 04/14/2026 Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MKG TO 35 NNE MKG TO 15 SW HTL TO 15 S APN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417 ..DEAN..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC011-017-035-049-051-057-063-073-085-087-105-107-111-117-121- 123-127-129-133-143-145-147-151-155-157-140840- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARENAC BAY CLARE GENESEE GLADWIN GRATIOT HURON ISABELLA LAKE LAPEER MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OGEMAW OSCEOLA ROSCOMMON SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA LCZ422-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-LMZ847-848-849-868-870-872- 140840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 107 SEVERE TSTM MI LH LM 140310Z - 140900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Lower Michigan Lake Huron Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1110 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and overspread much of Lower Michigan overnight as strong low-level winds overspread the area. A few of the stronger storms will pose a risk of hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Manistee MI to 25 miles east of Bad Axe MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DBQ TO 15 WSW RAC TO 30 NNE MKE TO 40 SSE MTW TO 40 NW MKG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417 ..DEAN..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC059-101-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA RACINE LMZ643-644-645-646-669-671-673-675-140840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFFSHORE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most other areas reaching only 15-20%. ...Piedmont... Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon. ...Southeast Wyoming... Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon. While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns, there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which lowers confidence in the overall risk. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Mid-South/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level winds across the southern and central High Plains will weaken through the day. Only a modest lee trough is expected to develop during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Mid-level winds will be waning through the day. Even so, a modest lee trough will promote 15-20 mph winds within the region. RH could be quite low. Some locations could reach as low as 10% with most other areas reaching only 15-20%. ...Piedmont... Temperatures may be slightly warmer than on Tuesday. Upper 80s to near 90 appears possible. Dry air will remain in place. RH in the lee of the terrain could fall to under 20% locally, though 20-25% is more probable for most areas. Continued exceptional fuel dryness will again support elevated fire weather during the afternoon. ...Southeast Wyoming... Dry and breezy downslope winds are expected during the afternoon. While meteorological conditions may support fire weather concerns, there is potential for precipitation to occur on Tuesday which lowers confidence in the overall risk. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow will continue into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast Colorado into central Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of 20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk. ...Southwest into southern High Plains... Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire weather threat during the afternoon. ...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough will approach the southern Plains today. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry return flow will continue into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southeast Colorado into central Plains... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will overlap the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the deepening surface low, winds of 20-25 mph appear possible with locally higher speeds in the terrain-favored areas. RH 10-15% will occur in the High Plains with greater potential for around 20% farther east. Winds may be equally strong into Kansas, but the less favorable RH/cloud cover and recent precipitation may modulate the overall fire weather risk. ...Southwest into southern High Plains... Moderately strong mid-level winds will extend into the southern Rockies. Cloud cover associated with the trough will tend to keep RH higher in some locations, but around 20% east of the higher terrain appears probable. Winds of 15-20 mph will promote an elevated fire weather threat during the afternoon. ...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont/Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow of 10-15 mph will occur during the afternoon. RH will generally be 25-30% as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 80s F. Very dry fuels in the region will support an elevated fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast. ...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity... Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection, MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection. However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening, upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and damaging winds will be possible. ...Southern Plains... Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150 m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline. ...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast... Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible with this activity into the evening. ..Leitman.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast. ...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity... Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection, MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection. However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening, upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and damaging winds will be possible. ...Southern Plains... Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150 m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline. ...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast... Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible with this activity into the evening. ..Leitman.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector (characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the Northeast. ...Midwest... An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning. This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to 2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential, including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time, easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours. The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS. Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat. ...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas... Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS guidance is that initiation is most probable across northwest TX into central OK - possibly ahead of a subtle mid-level wave, though in reality the unfocused nature of the broad-scale ascent suggests that initiation will be possible anywhere along the dryline where low-level convergence can be maximized. Regardless, ample buoyancy within the warm sector (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE sampled in evening RAOBs) coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail (possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Some tornado threat will likely materialize around and after 00 UTC as the nocturnal jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant threat for strong to severe winds. ..Moore/Wendt.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon. ...Synopsis... An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight. This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector (characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the Northeast. ...Midwest... An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning. This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to 2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential, including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time, easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening hours. The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS. Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat. ...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas... Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS guidance is that initiation is most probable across northwest TX into central OK - possibly ahead of a subtle mid-level wave, though in reality the unfocused nature of the broad-scale ascent suggests that initiation will be possible anywhere along the dryline where low-level convergence can be maximized. Regardless, ample buoyancy within the warm sector (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE sampled in evening RAOBs) coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail (possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Some tornado threat will likely materialize around and after 00 UTC as the nocturnal jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs. ...Northeast... A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant threat for strong to severe winds. ..Moore/Wendt.. 04/14/2026 Read more

MD 0416 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106...107... FOR 2SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0416 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...2Southern Wisconsin into central Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...107... Valid 140443Z - 140615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106, 107 continues. SUMMARY...Occasional damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible along the conglomerate outflow through 06z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have grown upscale into an extensive QLCS with a conglomerate cold pool extending from northeast IA across southern WI and into central Lower MI. The predominately east-west orientation of the QLCS in westerly flow aloft suggests that most of the stronger updrafts will remain slightly to the cool side of the southeast-moving outflow. A few smaller scale bowing segments will be possible, especially with cell mergers into the line, which is more probable across central Lower MI. Occasional damaging outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and hail near 1 inch in diameter will be the main threats through at least 06z. ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43018778 42908947 43069064 43239059 43698990 43728895 43798849 43998750 44048675 44408601 44578467 44308394 43868373 43588401 43348622 43018778 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MTW TO 5 ENE TVC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 ..HART..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC011-017-035-039-049-051-055-057-063-073-079-085-087-101-105- 107-111-113-117-121-123-127-129-133-143-145-147-151-155-157-165- 140540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARENAC BAY CLARE CRAWFORD GENESEE GLADWIN GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT HURON ISABELLA KALKASKA LAKE LAPEER MANISTEE MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OGEMAW OSCEOLA ROSCOMMON SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WEXFORD LCZ422-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-LMZ847-848-849-868-870-872- 140540- Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ALO TO 40 NNW DBQ TO 30 ESE VOK TO 25 SSW MTW TO 35 WSW MBL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 ..HART..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-065-140540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON FAYETTE WIC021-025-027-039-043-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101- 103-105-111-117-127-131-133-140540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON KENOSHA LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE RICHLAND ROCK SAUK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more