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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 106 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI LM 140240Z - 140900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Southeast Minnesota Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 940 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Lines and clusters of thunderstorms will persist overnight across the watch area. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Rochester MN to 45 miles north northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...WW 105... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 105 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW SZL TO 15 E TOP. ..THOMPSON..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-121-209-140340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC013-037-083-095-101-140340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CASS HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 412

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 0412 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103... FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...West-central into central Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 140057Z - 140230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes will continue into the evening as low-level shear increases. Furthermore, upscale growth of ongoing supercells will also lead to an increase threat for severe winds. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing west and northeast of Black River Falls. The high-precipitation character of these storms has become more apparent over the last couple of hours. The storm west of BRF shows a strong, but broad mesocyclone along with a strong rear flank downdraft signal on radar. With continued warm advection and upscale growth, an increasing threat for severe winds may develop as they progress east-southeast. To the east, cooler air is noted in surface observations which would suggest the strongest activity may turn slightly southward into greater buoyancy. The tornado threat will continue, however, as large low-level hodographs are evident on KARX and KMKX. Large hail could occur on an isolated basis, but storm mode will likely become less favorable with time. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44189145 44659094 44909017 44698951 43988866 43698884 43508916 43488972 43859068 44189145 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 413

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 0413 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103... FOR FAR NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Far northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 140116Z - 140245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...Areas near the warm front in southeast Minnesota and on the southern end of ongoing activity in north-central Iowa will see the greatest tornado risk over the next couple of hours. Large/very-large hail will be possible with supercells. Severe wind potential will increase with upscale growth that occurs. DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear is noted on VAD data from KDMX and KARX. As nocturnal cooling should remain slow on account of theta-e advection, low-level thermodynamic profiles will remain supportive of tornadoes for another 3-4 hours or so. The main areas of tornado risk will be along the warm front in southeast Minnesota as well as a isolated supercell on the southern flank of the activity in north-central Iowa. In between these areas, storms have consolidated and grown upscale. This will pose a risk for additional QLCS circulations as well as severe winds. Large to very-large hail remains possible with the most discrete cells. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42829492 43149510 43429448 44109361 44479265 44469198 44239163 43719160 42939208 42829492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 410

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 0410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Portions central/southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140025Z - 140230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An increase in the low-level jet across parts of the lower Great Lakes region could initiate storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A lone cell has been ongoing west of Lansing along outflow from a convective cluster to the south and east. This storm has produced marginally severe hail thus far. Lapse rates at midlevels were quite steep on the observed DVN sounding (8.2 C/km) with diminishing values farther east (observed DTX showed 6.3 C/km). During the evening, the low-level jet is forecast to be focused over the Upper Midwest, including lower Michigan. There are already signs of ascent from northern Illinois into Lake Michigan. With some guidance showing additional, intensifying activity evolving over the next few hours, these areas are being monitored for a possible watch. Large hail and isolated damaging winds would be the primary threats. The tornado risk is not as clear as low-level profiles are expected to be neutrally stable at best. That said, low-level hodographs will be large and theta-e advection will slow nocturnal stabilization. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42228439 42038492 41978586 42088645 43128730 43938757 44268701 44328620 43238398 42608389 42228439 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 103 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N FOD TO 20 SE FRM TO 30 ESE MKT TO 35 NNW RST TO 30 SW EAU TO 25 SSE EAU TO 40 WSW CWA TO 25 N AUW. ..WENDT..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-033-081-089-131-189-191-195-140240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CERRO GORDO HANCOCK HOWARD MITCHELL WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-140240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA WIC001-015-021-023-027-039-047-053-057-063-073-077-081-087-089- 091-097-103-111-117-121-123-131-135-137-139-141-140240- WI Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 103 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N FOD TO 20 SE FRM TO 30 ESE MKT TO 35 NNW RST TO 30 SW EAU TO 25 SSE EAU TO 40 WSW CWA TO 25 N AUW. ..WENDT..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-033-081-089-131-189-191-195-140240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CERRO GORDO HANCOCK HOWARD MITCHELL WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-140240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA WIC001-015-021-023-027-039-047-053-057-063-073-077-081-087-089- 091-097-103-111-117-121-123-131-135-137-139-141-140240- WI Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 103

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 103 TORNADO IA MN WI LM 132010Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon along a warm front across the watch area. Supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont MN to 20 miles east northeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 104 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MTW TO 5 ENE TVC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 ..HART..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC011-017-035-039-049-051-055-057-063-073-079-085-087-101-105- 107-111-113-117-121-123-127-129-133-143-145-147-151-155-157-165- 140540- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARENAC BAY CLARE CRAWFORD GENESEE GLADWIN GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT HURON ISABELLA KALKASKA LAKE LAPEER MANISTEE MASON MECOSTA MIDLAND MISSAUKEE MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OCEANA OGEMAW OSCEOLA ROSCOMMON SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA WEXFORD LCZ422-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-LMZ847-848-849-868-870-872- 140540- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 104 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N FOD TO 20 SE FRM TO 30 ESE MKT TO 35 NNW RST TO 30 SW EAU TO 25 SSE EAU TO 40 WSW CWA TO 25 N AUW. ..WENDT..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-033-081-089-131-189-191-195-140240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CERRO GORDO HANCOCK HOWARD MITCHELL WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-140240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA WIC001-015-021-023-027-039-047-053-057-063-073-077-081-087-089- 091-097-103-111-117-121-123-131-135-137-139-141-140240- WI Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 104

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 104 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 132140Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form across the watch area and pose a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado through mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Yankton SD to 35 miles east of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 105 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNU TO 25 SW TOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 ..THOMPSON..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-045-059-091-107-121-139-209-140240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JOHNSON LINN MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE MOC013-037-095-140240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CASS JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 105

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 105 TORNADO KS MO 132335Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East Central Kansas West Central Missouri * Effective this Monday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell and other widely scattered storms will track eastward across the watch area. Shear profiles are very favorable for a risk of tornadoes and very large hail will storms that can persist for a few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Olathe KS to 60 miles south of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Apr 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late evening across the southern to central Plains. ...Synopsis... Late-evening surface analysis reveals a slow-moving surface low over eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped eastward into southern MN and central WI. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along the frontal zone as of 01 UTC and will likely continue through much of the overnight hours across the upper MS Valley and the Midwest. Further south, several attempts at convective initiation have been noted along a dryline draped from eastern NE southward into KS, OK, and TX. Although additional attempts at thunderstorm development are possible over the next few hours, the primary severe risk will be focused across the Kansas City metro area where a cluster of supercells has emerged. ....Upper MS Valley/Midwest... Scattered supercells are ongoing across southern MN and into central WI along and north of the surface warm front. A tornado and significant (2+ inch) hail threat will likely persist for the next couple of hours, but the expectation is for increased storm clustering and upscale growth through the overnight hours. The developing MCS will likely spread east/southeast into southern WI and possibly northern IL prior to 12 UTC Tuesday with an attendant risk for severe winds. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... A cluster of supercells has emerged across eastern KS over the past few hours and will likely continue to spread east into western MO through late evening. Given very favorable thermodynamic and kinematics noted in the 00z TOP sounding, this activity will likely continue to pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. 15% hail and 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced to account for this localized threat. ...Southern Plains... GOES imagery over the past few hours has shown several attempts at convective initiation across OK and TX; however, most of these attempts have failed due to very meager/localized ascent along the dryline. While one strong storm is noted across northwest TX, the potential for new storm development should wane through the evening given residual inhibition noted in 00z soundings and as nocturnal cooling begins to diminish the dryline circulation. Because of this, opted to remove 15% risk probabilities, but maintain some risk probabilities given the ongoing convection and otherwise very favorable convective environment. ..Moore.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC Apr 14, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late evening across the southern to central Plains. ...Synopsis... Late-evening surface analysis reveals a slow-moving surface low over eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped eastward into southern MN and central WI. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along the frontal zone as of 01 UTC and will likely continue through much of the overnight hours across the upper MS Valley and the Midwest. Further south, several attempts at convective initiation have been noted along a dryline draped from eastern NE southward into KS, OK, and TX. Although additional attempts at thunderstorm development are possible over the next few hours, the primary severe risk will be focused across the Kansas City metro area where a cluster of supercells has emerged. ....Upper MS Valley/Midwest... Scattered supercells are ongoing across southern MN and into central WI along and north of the surface warm front. A tornado and significant (2+ inch) hail threat will likely persist for the next couple of hours, but the expectation is for increased storm clustering and upscale growth through the overnight hours. The developing MCS will likely spread east/southeast into southern WI and possibly northern IL prior to 12 UTC Tuesday with an attendant risk for severe winds. ...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri... A cluster of supercells has emerged across eastern KS over the past few hours and will likely continue to spread east into western MO through late evening. Given very favorable thermodynamic and kinematics noted in the 00z TOP sounding, this activity will likely continue to pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. 15% hail and 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced to account for this localized threat. ...Southern Plains... GOES imagery over the past few hours has shown several attempts at convective initiation across OK and TX; however, most of these attempts have failed due to very meager/localized ascent along the dryline. While one strong storm is noted across northwest TX, the potential for new storm development should wane through the evening given residual inhibition noted in 00z soundings and as nocturnal cooling begins to diminish the dryline circulation. Because of this, opted to remove 15% risk probabilities, but maintain some risk probabilities given the ongoing convection and otherwise very favorable convective environment. ..Moore.. 04/14/2026 Read more

SPC MD 411

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
MD 0411 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 105... FOR EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 140039Z - 140145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...A strong tornado is possible with the sustained supercell in Franklin Co. Kansas through 0100-0130z. DISCUSSION...A supercell has continued to get better organized after a few mergers, and is now a tornadic storm moving into a favorable environment. A strong tornado will be possible given the increasing low-level shear (250-300 0-1km SRH per TWX and EAX VWPs) in a sufficiently moist/buoyant environment this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38549463 38499514 38619529 38749527 38879498 38829463 38709459 38629459 38549463 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 103 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RWF TO 30 WSW MKT TO 25 WSW MSP. ..WENDT..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-063-089-109-131-147-189-191-195-140140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE EMMET HOWARD KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-109-131-147-157-161- 165-169-140140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR MARTIN MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN WINONA WIC001-011-015-017-019-021-023-027-033-035-039-047-053-057-063- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 104 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S RWF TO 30 WSW MKT TO 25 WSW MSP. ..WENDT..04/14/26 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-063-089-109-131-147-189-191-195-140140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE EMMET HOWARD KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-049-055-079-091-099-109-131-147-157-161- 165-169-140140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON LE SUEUR MARTIN MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WATONWAN WINONA WIC001-011-015-017-019-021-023-027-033-035-039-047-053-057-063- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W FWA TO 40 ESE SBN TO 25 S AZO TO 5 E AZO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406 ..WENDT..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-085-087-113-151-183-132340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE NOBLE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC023-059-149-132340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH OHC039-051-069-171-132340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 4 weeks ago
WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W FWA TO 40 ESE SBN TO 25 S AZO TO 5 E AZO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406 ..WENDT..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-085-087-113-151-183-132340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE NOBLE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC023-059-149-132340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH OHC039-051-069-171-132340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more
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