SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40% probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO, maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions. However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this time. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further exacerbate the fire environment. On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40% probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO, maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions. However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this time. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further exacerbate the fire environment. On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40% probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO, maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions. However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this time. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further exacerbate the fire environment. On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across eastern NM and West TX on Day 3/Wednesday as the mid-level trough translates eastward. Another pronounced upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest Day 4/Thursday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the eastward propagating trough should promote dry, downslope flow and a continued fire weather threat across the southern High Plains Day 4/Thursday. A more widespread fire weather impact across this region is expected on Day 5/Friday as the amplifying trough moves into the central U.S. Farther east, upper-level ridging will keep much of the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. dry through the week. The exceptionally dry fuels and occasional elevated southerly winds will pose a lingering fire weather threat across this region. ...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday - Central/Southern Plains... The central/southern High Plains will remain a focus for fire weather concerns through this week with a dry, downslope regime prevailing across the region. Southwesterly flow aloft and subsequent lee surface troughing across the region will support breezy west/southwest winds and low RH each afternoon on Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. On Day 3/Wednesday, a dry airmass of below 15 percent RH and sustained westerly winds of 10-15 mph will persist behind the western OK dry line in the southern Plains. 40% probabilities of Critical have been maintained to account for this threat. On Day 4/Thursday, fire weather concerns persist with dry and breezy southwesterly flow extending into southeastern CO, maintaining 40% probabilities of Critical fire weather conditions. However, passing mid/high level clouds may dampen the fire environment to some extent, precluding the introduction of 70% Critical probabilities at this time. A more pronounced and amplified upper-level trough approaches the central CONUS by Day 5/Friday. The associated mid-level jet streak and deepening surface cyclone across the Central Plains will aid in stronger west/southwest winds behind the persistent dry line. Although recent rainfall has mitigated wildfire spread potential in some areas, several days of drying will allow more receptive fuels to develop across the southern High Plains by the end of the week. 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced for Day 5/Friday across much of east/southeastern NM, TX/OK Panhandles, and parts of West Texas. This is to account for extended guidance agreement in combined probabilities of less than 15 percent RH and greater than 20 mph winds, and the potential for an incoming cold front that may further exacerbate the fire environment. On Day 6/Saturday, a dry, post-frontal airmass will emerge in the wake of the aforementioned surface cyclone. However, ensemble spread remains high regarding wind speeds, precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 104 Status Reports
SPC MD 402
MD 0402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTION OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO EDWARD PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portion of the Texas Big Bend into Edward Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132011Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of southwest Texas/northern Mexico, with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GLM Flash data depict isolated thunderstorm development across Stockton Plateau in southwest Texas and the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Surface temperatures in the upper-70s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F ahead of an approaching dryline are supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Straight, elongated hodographs amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km (per latest mesoanalysis) will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out should a supercell persist into the late evening hours as the nocturnal low-level jet strengths, supporting some increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the expected isolated storm coverage. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may be needed should the threat magnitude/coverage trend higher. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29510342 29870336 30300300 30960236 31600151 31820091 31710039 31270014 30950010 30420008 29750021 29000050 28940075 29090084 29380121 29670165 29730226 29610260 29410274 29350312 29510342 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portion of the Texas Big Bend into Edward Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132011Z - 132215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of southwest Texas/northern Mexico, with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GLM Flash data depict isolated thunderstorm development across Stockton Plateau in southwest Texas and the Sierra del Carmen in northern Mexico. Surface temperatures in the upper-70s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F ahead of an approaching dryline are supporting 2000-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Straight, elongated hodographs amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km (per latest mesoanalysis) will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out should a supercell persist into the late evening hours as the nocturnal low-level jet strengths, supporting some increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the expected isolated storm coverage. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may be needed should the threat magnitude/coverage trend higher. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29510342 29870336 30300300 30960236 31600151 31820091 31710039 31270014 30950010 30420008 29750021 29000050 28940075 29090084 29380121 29670165 29730226 29610260 29410274 29350312 29510342 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more
SPC MD 403
MD 0403 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 102... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Indiana into extreme southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102... Valid 132038Z - 132215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat should continue with ongoing storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster of thunderstorms is persisting eastward amid a heated boundary layer (characterized by surface temperatures over 80 F), and modest vertical wind shear. Multiple wind damage reports, along with measured gusts around 50 kts have been received over the past few hours. MRMS MESH has also indicated the possibility of 1+ inch hail occurring with some of the stronger storms as well. Given 60+ F surface dewpoints and resultant 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE preceding the storms, a severe wind/hail threat should continue with these storms for at least a few more hours. Given adequate surface-based instability preceding supercell structures, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 40868754 41528721 42008657 42108576 41988511 41708475 41278480 41028514 40878580 40798641 40798713 40868754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Indiana into extreme southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102... Valid 132038Z - 132215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat should continue with ongoing storms over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster of thunderstorms is persisting eastward amid a heated boundary layer (characterized by surface temperatures over 80 F), and modest vertical wind shear. Multiple wind damage reports, along with measured gusts around 50 kts have been received over the past few hours. MRMS MESH has also indicated the possibility of 1+ inch hail occurring with some of the stronger storms as well. Given 60+ F surface dewpoints and resultant 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE preceding the storms, a severe wind/hail threat should continue with these storms for at least a few more hours. Given adequate surface-based instability preceding supercell structures, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 40868754 41528721 42008657 42108576 41988511 41708475 41278480 41028514 40878580 40798641 40798713 40868754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
SPC MD 404
MD 0404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132053Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline across portions of eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Any storms that do develop will bring a threat for all hazards, with the main threat large to very large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts an area of deepening cumulus along a dryline in the vicinity of Wichita, Kansas. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F are contributing to 2000-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE within the warm sector. Steep mid-level lapse rates (evident on the 18Z LMN special sounding), elongated hodographs (effective bulk shear of 30-35+ kts per latest mesoanalysis), and ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone will support the potential for large to very large hail to 3+ inches in diameter with any storm that does develop. The tornado threat remains somewhat more conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support increasing low-level hodograph curvature and an accompanying increase in the tornado threat for any ongoing supercells. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the occurrence of convective initiation. Trends will be closely monitored and a watch may be needed should initiation appear imminent given the conditionally favorable environment. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37629505 37259551 37059638 37129741 37369761 37859758 38829716 39309681 39569631 39579562 39299513 38709495 38139494 37629505 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132053Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline across portions of eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Any storms that do develop will bring a threat for all hazards, with the main threat large to very large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts an area of deepening cumulus along a dryline in the vicinity of Wichita, Kansas. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the mid-60s F are contributing to 2000-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE within the warm sector. Steep mid-level lapse rates (evident on the 18Z LMN special sounding), elongated hodographs (effective bulk shear of 30-35+ kts per latest mesoanalysis), and ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone will support the potential for large to very large hail to 3+ inches in diameter with any storm that does develop. The tornado threat remains somewhat more conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support increasing low-level hodograph curvature and an accompanying increase in the tornado threat for any ongoing supercells. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the occurrence of convective initiation. Trends will be closely monitored and a watch may be needed should initiation appear imminent given the conditionally favorable environment. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37629505 37259551 37059638 37129741 37369761 37859758 38829716 39309681 39569631 39579562 39299513 38709495 38139494 37629505 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
SPC MD 399
MD 0399 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas into central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131938Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline this afternoon. Any sustained storms that are able to develop will bring the potential for all severe hazards, with the primary threat large to very large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a dryline extending south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An area of deepening cumulus is noted in recent visible satellite imagery across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains where convective temperatures are beginning to be reached amid strong diurnal heating and deep boundary layer mixing behind the dryline. Within the warm sector, mid-80s temperatures amid mid/upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z LMN special sounding) are contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While upper-level forcing is forecast to remain modest at best, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid a belt of enhanced mid-level flow (40+ kts at 4-5 km AGL per regional VWPs) will support supercells capable of all hazards. The primary threat with any storms that do develop is expected to be large to very large hail to 2-3+ inches in diameter, which is supported by recent mesoanalysis that indicates ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone and SHIP values of 2+. The tornado threat remains somewhat more conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a strengthening of the nocturnal low-level jet will yield increasing low-level SRH and clockwise hodograph curvature. While the timing of potential convective initiation and subsequent storm coverage remain somewhat uncertain, a watch will likely be needed should initiation appear imminent given the conditionally favorable warm sector environment. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31590023 31890044 32320043 32949998 33669938 34289902 35339860 35939814 36329749 36409705 36339669 36019643 35239632 34189672 33509717 32699779 32109849 31679918 31549972 31590023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of northwest Texas into central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131938Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline this afternoon. Any sustained storms that are able to develop will bring the potential for all severe hazards, with the primary threat large to very large hail. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a dryline extending south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An area of deepening cumulus is noted in recent visible satellite imagery across portions of the Texas Rolling Plains where convective temperatures are beginning to be reached amid strong diurnal heating and deep boundary layer mixing behind the dryline. Within the warm sector, mid-80s temperatures amid mid/upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z LMN special sounding) are contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While upper-level forcing is forecast to remain modest at best, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid a belt of enhanced mid-level flow (40+ kts at 4-5 km AGL per regional VWPs) will support supercells capable of all hazards. The primary threat with any storms that do develop is expected to be large to very large hail to 2-3+ inches in diameter, which is supported by recent mesoanalysis that indicates ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone and SHIP values of 2+. The tornado threat remains somewhat more conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a strengthening of the nocturnal low-level jet will yield increasing low-level SRH and clockwise hodograph curvature. While the timing of potential convective initiation and subsequent storm coverage remain somewhat uncertain, a watch will likely be needed should initiation appear imminent given the conditionally favorable warm sector environment. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31590023 31890044 32320043 32949998 33669938 34289902 35339860 35939814 36329749 36409705 36339669 36019643 35239632 34189672 33509717 32699779 32109849 31679918 31549972 31590023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102 Status Reports
WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNV TO 30 SW VPZ TO 20 WSW BEH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 ..SQUITIERI..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC033-039-049-073-085-087-091-099-113-127-131-141-149-151-181- 183-132140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-149-132140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNV TO 30 SW VPZ TO 20 WSW BEH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 ..SQUITIERI..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC033-039-049-073-085-087-091-099-113-127-131-141-149-151-181- 183-132140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-149-132140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102
WW 102 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM 131910Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over northeast Illinois will track eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Valparaiso IN to 45 miles north northeast of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over northeast Illinois will track eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Valparaiso IN to 45 miles north northeast of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 103 Status Reports
WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNV TO 30 SW VPZ TO 20 WSW BEH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 ..SQUITIERI..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC033-039-049-073-085-087-091-099-113-127-131-141-149-151-181- 183-132140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-149-132140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DNV TO 30 SW VPZ TO 20 WSW BEH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403 ..SQUITIERI..04/13/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC033-039-049-073-085-087-091-099-113-127-131-141-149-151-181- 183-132140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-149-132140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS ST. JOSEPH Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 103
WW 103 TORNADO IA MN WI LM 132010Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon along a warm front across the watch area. Supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont MN to 20 miles east northeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern Minnesota Central Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon along a warm front across the watch area. Supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Fairmont MN to 20 miles east northeast of Oshkosh WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 102... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z CORRECTED HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Southeast Colorado... Critical highlights have been expanded slightly north to account for a broader corridor of stronger west-southwesterly winds and very low RH of near 10 percent ahead of an incoming cold front. With spotty high clouds present in the afternoon, surface wind gusts of 30-40 mph may emerge from efficient boundary layer mixing of 700-850 mb layer winds of 30-40 kt, enhancing fire weather concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic towards the Piedmont... Widespread southerly winds greater than 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) and RH of 25-40 percent are expected to overlap a region of broad 95th-99th percentile ERC values and recently receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather highlights have been expanded farther south into the Piedmont and eastward towards the Virginia/North Carolina coastlines to account for these pervasive conditions. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains. ...Southeast Colorado and vicinity... A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations). Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward extent. Critical fire weather is expected. ...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains... The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds. However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region. Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions, very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z CORRECTED HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Southeast Colorado... Critical highlights have been expanded slightly north to account for a broader corridor of stronger west-southwesterly winds and very low RH of near 10 percent ahead of an incoming cold front. With spotty high clouds present in the afternoon, surface wind gusts of 30-40 mph may emerge from efficient boundary layer mixing of 700-850 mb layer winds of 30-40 kt, enhancing fire weather concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic towards the Piedmont... Widespread southerly winds greater than 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) and RH of 25-40 percent are expected to overlap a region of broad 95th-99th percentile ERC values and recently receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather highlights have been expanded farther south into the Piedmont and eastward towards the Virginia/North Carolina coastlines to account for these pervasive conditions. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains. ...Southeast Colorado and vicinity... A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations). Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward extent. Critical fire weather is expected. ...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains... The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds. However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region. Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions, very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z CORRECTED HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Southeast Colorado... Critical highlights have been expanded slightly north to account for a broader corridor of stronger west-southwesterly winds and very low RH of near 10 percent ahead of an incoming cold front. With spotty high clouds present in the afternoon, surface wind gusts of 30-40 mph may emerge from efficient boundary layer mixing of 700-850 mb layer winds of 30-40 kt, enhancing fire weather concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic towards the Piedmont... Widespread southerly winds greater than 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) and RH of 25-40 percent are expected to overlap a region of broad 95th-99th percentile ERC values and recently receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather highlights have been expanded farther south into the Piedmont and eastward towards the Virginia/North Carolina coastlines to account for these pervasive conditions. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains. ...Southeast Colorado and vicinity... A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations). Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward extent. Critical fire weather is expected. ...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains... The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds. However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region. Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions, very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z CORRECTED HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...Southeast Colorado... Critical highlights have been expanded slightly north to account for a broader corridor of stronger west-southwesterly winds and very low RH of near 10 percent ahead of an incoming cold front. With spotty high clouds present in the afternoon, surface wind gusts of 30-40 mph may emerge from efficient boundary layer mixing of 700-850 mb layer winds of 30-40 kt, enhancing fire weather concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic towards the Piedmont... Widespread southerly winds greater than 10 mph (gusts of 15-20 mph) and RH of 25-40 percent are expected to overlap a region of broad 95th-99th percentile ERC values and recently receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather highlights have been expanded farther south into the Piedmont and eastward towards the Virginia/North Carolina coastlines to account for these pervasive conditions. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... The progression of the upper trough in the Southwest/southern High Plains is expected to slow on Tuesday. The trough may not eject into the Plains until early Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen in the central High Plains. ...Southeast Colorado and vicinity... A similar setup to Monday is expected, though the location of the trough will bring better alignment of stronger mid-level winds to the region. The deepening surface low will further increase surface wind speeds to 20-25 mph. RH of around 15% appears likely. Farther east into Kansas, the surface winds will be similarly strong along with a very dry airmass (RH perhaps nearing 10% in some locations). Recent rainfall should mitigate some fire weather risk with eastward extent. Critical fire weather is expected. ...Parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains... The base of the trough over this region along with a moderately strong surface pressure gradient will promote 15-20 mph winds. RH will be somewhat uncertain given the expected mid-level clouds. However, around 20% is possible for broad portions of the region. Elevated fire weather is forecast during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry return flow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic. 10-15 mph winds around the surface high are probable during the afternoon. 25-30% RH will also occur. Despite the marginal meteorological conditions, very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Apr 13, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Upper Midwest... Afternoon visible imagery showed diurnal heating ongoing south of the stalled front from the eastern SD across southern MN into central WI. Moderate destabilization should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially supercells are likely, given strongly veering wind profiles and moderate deep-layer flow. All hazards are possible with these storms. With time, upscale growth into one or more lines or clusters appears likely as storms spread eastward into the Great Lakes. Convective development appears likely along the triple point near the surface low from northeast/eastern NE into southeastern SD. Supercell wind profiles and moderate buoyancy would support a risk for large hail and some damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two may occur as any supercells that develop move eastward into deeper low-level moisture across northwestern IA and southern MN. ...Southern and Central Plains... Towering cumulus along a dryline over parts of KS/OK/TX may support isolated storm development late this afternoon. A conditionally favorable environment (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear) for supercells will support a risk for all hazards. See MCD #399 for short term information. The primary change for this outlook was to extend severe probabilities northeastward into eastern KS. Guidance and observational trends have shown an increased likelihood of a storm or two this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA... Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21z/4pm CDT. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin, cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the boundary. While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulations. ...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan... See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas... Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased, although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are still uncertain. A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the dryline/warm sector later today. Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande vicinity. If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of 40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards including very large hail. ...Northern High Plains... Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Upper Midwest... Afternoon visible imagery showed diurnal heating ongoing south of the stalled front from the eastern SD across southern MN into central WI. Moderate destabilization should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially supercells are likely, given strongly veering wind profiles and moderate deep-layer flow. All hazards are possible with these storms. With time, upscale growth into one or more lines or clusters appears likely as storms spread eastward into the Great Lakes. Convective development appears likely along the triple point near the surface low from northeast/eastern NE into southeastern SD. Supercell wind profiles and moderate buoyancy would support a risk for large hail and some damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two may occur as any supercells that develop move eastward into deeper low-level moisture across northwestern IA and southern MN. ...Southern and Central Plains... Towering cumulus along a dryline over parts of KS/OK/TX may support isolated storm development late this afternoon. A conditionally favorable environment (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear) for supercells will support a risk for all hazards. See MCD #399 for short term information. The primary change for this outlook was to extend severe probabilities northeastward into eastern KS. Guidance and observational trends have shown an increased likelihood of a storm or two this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA... Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21z/4pm CDT. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin, cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the boundary. While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulations. ...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan... See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas... Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased, although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are still uncertain. A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the dryline/warm sector later today. Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande vicinity. If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of 40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards including very large hail. ...Northern High Plains... Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Read more
SPC Apr 13, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Upper Midwest... Afternoon visible imagery showed diurnal heating ongoing south of the stalled front from the eastern SD across southern MN into central WI. Moderate destabilization should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially supercells are likely, given strongly veering wind profiles and moderate deep-layer flow. All hazards are possible with these storms. With time, upscale growth into one or more lines or clusters appears likely as storms spread eastward into the Great Lakes. Convective development appears likely along the triple point near the surface low from northeast/eastern NE into southeastern SD. Supercell wind profiles and moderate buoyancy would support a risk for large hail and some damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two may occur as any supercells that develop move eastward into deeper low-level moisture across northwestern IA and southern MN. ...Southern and Central Plains... Towering cumulus along a dryline over parts of KS/OK/TX may support isolated storm development late this afternoon. A conditionally favorable environment (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear) for supercells will support a risk for all hazards. See MCD #399 for short term information. The primary change for this outlook was to extend severe probabilities northeastward into eastern KS. Guidance and observational trends have shown an increased likelihood of a storm or two this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA... Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21z/4pm CDT. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin, cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the boundary. While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulations. ...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan... See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas... Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased, although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are still uncertain. A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the dryline/warm sector later today. Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande vicinity. If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of 40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards including very large hail. ...Northern High Plains... Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Upper Midwest... Afternoon visible imagery showed diurnal heating ongoing south of the stalled front from the eastern SD across southern MN into central WI. Moderate destabilization should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially supercells are likely, given strongly veering wind profiles and moderate deep-layer flow. All hazards are possible with these storms. With time, upscale growth into one or more lines or clusters appears likely as storms spread eastward into the Great Lakes. Convective development appears likely along the triple point near the surface low from northeast/eastern NE into southeastern SD. Supercell wind profiles and moderate buoyancy would support a risk for large hail and some damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two may occur as any supercells that develop move eastward into deeper low-level moisture across northwestern IA and southern MN. ...Southern and Central Plains... Towering cumulus along a dryline over parts of KS/OK/TX may support isolated storm development late this afternoon. A conditionally favorable environment (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear) for supercells will support a risk for all hazards. See MCD #399 for short term information. The primary change for this outlook was to extend severe probabilities northeastward into eastern KS. Guidance and observational trends have shown an increased likelihood of a storm or two this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/ ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA... Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21z/4pm CDT. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin, cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells. Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the boundary. While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulations. ...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan... See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas... Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased, although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are still uncertain. A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the dryline/warm sector later today. Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande vicinity. If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of 40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards including very large hail. ...Northern High Plains... Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates. Read more
SPC MD 396
MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Minnesota into central Wisconsin...and extreme northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131857Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. Severe wind and hail are likely, accompanied by a tornado risk, especially with storms that can anchor on the warm front. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to meander eastward over eastern NE, with a warm front extending from FSD to MKX ahead of the low. Visible satellite depicts lingering cloud cover along the warm front. Nonetheless, diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the 70s F along the warm front. Given mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z GRB observed sounding), surface-based instability is already in place, with over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE being common (per 18Z mesoanalysis). The aforementioned sounding shows an elongated, straight hodograph in place, with over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. The buoyancy/shear parameter space already supports supercell structures. With erosion of the cloud deck, along with an increase in a southwesterly LLJ later this afternoon, supercells are expected to develop along the warm front, as shown by high-resolution/ensemble guidance consensus. At the very least, a large hail threat should accompany the supercells, regardless of whether they sustain immediately north or south of the warm front. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. Should any supercells, or upscale growing line segments with mesovortices anchor to the warm front, then locally enhanced SRH with these storms may also support a tornado threat. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44419293 44549289 44769235 44919093 44998985 44868893 44598822 44118778 43738779 43488790 43298810 43058934 43109030 43169118 43329201 43479250 43539259 43629262 44419293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Minnesota into central Wisconsin...and extreme northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131857Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. Severe wind and hail are likely, accompanied by a tornado risk, especially with storms that can anchor on the warm front. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to meander eastward over eastern NE, with a warm front extending from FSD to MKX ahead of the low. Visible satellite depicts lingering cloud cover along the warm front. Nonetheless, diurnal heating has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the 70s F along the warm front. Given mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z GRB observed sounding), surface-based instability is already in place, with over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE being common (per 18Z mesoanalysis). The aforementioned sounding shows an elongated, straight hodograph in place, with over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. The buoyancy/shear parameter space already supports supercell structures. With erosion of the cloud deck, along with an increase in a southwesterly LLJ later this afternoon, supercells are expected to develop along the warm front, as shown by high-resolution/ensemble guidance consensus. At the very least, a large hail threat should accompany the supercells, regardless of whether they sustain immediately north or south of the warm front. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible. Should any supercells, or upscale growing line segments with mesovortices anchor to the warm front, then locally enhanced SRH with these storms may also support a tornado threat. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44419293 44549289 44769235 44919093 44998985 44868893 44598822 44118778 43738779 43488790 43298810 43058934 43109030 43169118 43329201 43479250 43539259 43629262 44419293 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more
SPC MD 398
MD 0398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Montana into extreme northeast Wyoming and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131918Z - 132045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may develop through the afternoon. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a few instances of hail and perhaps a landspout tornado are also possible. DISCUSSION...Low-topped storms have recently developed near a secondary surface low and a low-amplitude mid-level impulse overspreads the northern High Plains. Ample surface heating has allowed for deep boundary layer mixing, with surface dewpoints in the 20s-40s F noted. These storms are likely high-based, and will be capable of producing a few severe gusts due to evaporative cooling within the deep/dry boundary layer. 19Z mesoanalysis depicts well over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE amid very high amounts of low-level vertically oriented vorticity. Storms will likely be outflow dominant due to evaporative cooling producing extensive cold pools. However, any updrafts in this vorticity rich environment that can avoid undercutting for appreciable periods of time may support a landspout threat, as well as the potential for some hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44710575 45410551 45830459 45940316 45770230 45360190 44950183 44570207 44300281 44160388 44250521 44710575 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Montana into extreme northeast Wyoming and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131918Z - 132045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may develop through the afternoon. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a few instances of hail and perhaps a landspout tornado are also possible. DISCUSSION...Low-topped storms have recently developed near a secondary surface low and a low-amplitude mid-level impulse overspreads the northern High Plains. Ample surface heating has allowed for deep boundary layer mixing, with surface dewpoints in the 20s-40s F noted. These storms are likely high-based, and will be capable of producing a few severe gusts due to evaporative cooling within the deep/dry boundary layer. 19Z mesoanalysis depicts well over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE amid very high amounts of low-level vertically oriented vorticity. Storms will likely be outflow dominant due to evaporative cooling producing extensive cold pools. However, any updrafts in this vorticity rich environment that can avoid undercutting for appreciable periods of time may support a landspout threat, as well as the potential for some hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 44710575 45410551 45830459 45940316 45770230 45360190 44950183 44570207 44300281 44160388 44250521 44710575 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more
SPC Apr 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI, with a cold front shifting south and east through the period. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to Great Lakes... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging wind and large hail across these regions. ...Northeast... Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the boundary. ..Thornton.. 04/13/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI, with a cold front shifting south and east through the period. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to Great Lakes... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging wind and large hail across these regions. ...Northeast... Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the boundary. ..Thornton.. 04/13/2026 Read more
SPC Apr 13, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI, with a cold front shifting south and east through the period. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to Great Lakes... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging wind and large hail across these regions. ...Northeast... Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the boundary. ..Thornton.. 04/13/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI, with a cold front shifting south and east through the period. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to Great Lakes... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging wind and large hail across these regions. ...Northeast... Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the boundary. ..Thornton.. 04/13/2026 Read more
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