Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance. ...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic... Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information. Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. ...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf... NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. ...AL area this afternoon... Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance. ...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic... Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information. Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. ...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf... NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. ...AL area this afternoon... Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance. ...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic... Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information. Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. ...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf... NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. ...AL area this afternoon... Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance. ...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic... Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information. Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. ...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf... NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. ...AL area this afternoon... Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res ensemble guidance. ...Georgia and Mid-Atlantic... Across northern Georgia, convection has thus far exhibited mostly pulse-like behavior with transient and weak updrafts. Regional velocity imagery shows occasional swaths of strong winds embedded within downbursts, so some localized damaging wind threat will likely persist across the region through early evening given hot low-level conditions surrounding ongoing storms. However, based on these observed trends, limited clustering, and weak convective signals in latest guidance, the 15% wind probabilities have been trimmed eastward to align with more favorable thermodynamic conditions (particularly steeper low-level lapse rates) and where guidance continues to show some thunderstorm potential through late afternoon. See MCD #1660 for additional near-term forecast information. Further east, a mix of thunderstorm clusters and loosely organized cells has been observed with occasional reports of wind damage noted over the past few hours. Based on recent mesoanalyses, the best thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain across eastern VA/NC, and consideration was made for introducing 5% hail probabilities. However, MRMS VIL/MESH trends show relatively transient and weak hail cores, suggesting that damaging winds will remain the predominant threat through early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Latest HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles continue to show a strong signal for severe wind across south-central ND and far northern SD later this evening as thunderstorms develop along the approaching cold front. Observational trends seem to support this as low 70 dewpoints continue to spread north into ND and pre-frontal cumulus begins to develop along the western SD/ND border. Aside from minor adjustments of probability/intensity lines to better align with recent guidance and satellite trends, forecast thoughts outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening... A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. ...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf... NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. ...AL area this afternoon... Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the surface and keeping fuels dry. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the surface and keeping fuels dry. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the surface and keeping fuels dry. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the surface and keeping fuels dry. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the surface and keeping fuels dry. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday. While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W GSO TO 20 SSW CHO. ..WENDT..07/19/26 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105- 107-117-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-157- 163-165-167-169-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-192040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture. A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur. Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night. The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture. A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur. Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night. The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture. A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur. Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night. The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture. A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur. Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night. The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Severe storms will be likely over a large area Tuesday, from parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley extending across the Mid Atlantic as increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level moisture. A mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various waves rotating around. A leading wave will aid storm development during the day from eastern VA northward into southwest New England, well ahead of the main cold front to the west. Southwest flow at 850 mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon within a pre-frontal trough. Veering winds with height should support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds or isolated tornadoes may occur. Meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend roughly from northern OH/IN into southern IL during the afternoon. This region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest flow regime. Dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s F with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The long hodographs should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon into the night. The greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of Kentucky and Indiana across Ohio, West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. However, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as predictability increases in later updates. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more

MD 1659 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1659 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into much of Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191702Z - 191900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose an isolated risk for strong to occasionally damaging downburst wind gusts through this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict temperatures warming into the low-90s F amid rich moisture (dewpoints in the mid-70s F) across much of the Southeast. While mid-level lapse rates remain poor, these warm and humid conditions are contributing to 1500-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE from coastal MS/AL northward toward the AL/TN border. PW near 2 inches and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a risk for water-loaded downbursts capable of isolated strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts. Locally greater potential will accompany any marginally more organized clusters that can develop along consolidated cold pools amid weak deep-layer flow (generally less than 15-20 kts of deep-layer flow sampled by regional VWPs). In the near-term, locally greater damaging wind potential may evolve across central Alabama downstream of a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms that is currently propagating southward toward the Birmingham Metro. The overall severe risk is expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31738633 31018691 30208751 30108837 30168877 30348906 30768941 31298955 31778958 32228954 32618937 33388899 33978862 34858753 34918671 34658587 34458568 34078549 33668540 33288530 32878528 32578540 32248578 31738633 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/26 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057-061- 063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105- 107-117-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151-153-157- 163-165-167-169-171-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-197-191940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES SURRY TYRRELL VANCE Read more

MD 1658 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191620Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms this afternoon will be capable of wind damage. A watch is possible early this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low to upper 70s F dewpoints are in place from central Virginia into the Carolinas early this afternoon. Cloud debris in southern Virginia is slowly eroding and temperatures are generally in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Between the southward moving cold front, the Blue Ridge, and differential heating boundaries, scattered storm development appears likely over the next few hours. Damaging downburst winds will be possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Morning observed soundings indicate poor mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level flow will diminish with southward extent. Even so, storm coverage and potential clustering will support enough of a severe threat that a watch is possible for parts of the region early this afternoon. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37437761 37367675 36627579 35677568 35377620 35397692 35507987 35728155 36178163 37198025 37248017 37437761 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas. ...From IA across WI and into Upper MI... A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of 50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates over 7 C/km. A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over 50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western Upper MI, WI, and northern IA. Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of effective SRH for some of the larger supercells. A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong, with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or above 0.4. With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible. ...Southern VA into NC... Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near 20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026 Read more