Storm Prediction Center

MD 0927 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Far southeast South Dakota into adjacent portions of Nebraska and Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257... Valid 010215Z - 010415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher tornado potential may persist for the next couple of hours across far southeast South Dakota into adjacent portions of Iowa and Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Additional tornadic supercells have emerged immediately west of the Sioux Falls, SD and the I-29 corridor based on radar imagery from KFSD. Near-storm 0-1 km SRH sampled by the local VWP has recently increased to around 200 m2/s2 immediately ahead of the approaching storms. Consequently, the near-storm environment is more favorable for tornadoes than previously anticipated, though storm interactions appear to be modulating the duration of the tornado threat to some degree. Additional supercell development is noted on the southern flank of the emerging cluster, and is already showing signs of an organizing low-level mesocyclone. It appears likely that some tornado threat will likely continue for the next 1-2 hours - most likely on the southern flank of the cluster as it migrates east/southeast into far northeast NE/northwest IA. Based on the near-storm environment and observed velocity signatures, a strong tornado appears possible. ..Moore.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42589728 43109709 43329697 43359662 43289611 43139602 42919595 42689607 42519629 42459661 42489704 42589728 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 ..MOORE..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-161-165-173- 010440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AUDUBON CARROLL CASS CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY TAYLOR NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-153-155-167-173-177-179-010440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT BUTLER CASS COLFAX CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 ..MOORE..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-009-027-029-047-071-085-129-133-137-145-155-161-165-173- 010440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AUDUBON CARROLL CASS CRAWFORD FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY TAYLOR NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-153-155-167-173-177-179-010440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT BUTLER CASS COLFAX CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS STANTON THURSTON WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW OFK TO 30 SE FSD TO 30 NW OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 ..MOORE..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-141-143-149-167-193-010440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC105-010440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOBLES NEC043-051-010440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW OFK TO 30 SE FSD TO 30 NW OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 ..MOORE..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-141-143-149-167-193-010440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC105-010440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOBLES NEC043-051-010440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-011-015-017-031-035-045-059-073-079-087-091-103-107- 111-115-121-127-139-173-177-191-197-207-209-010440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARVEY JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-029-033-037-039-047-053-059-083-085-089-095-101-105- 107-141-159-165-167-177-185-195-217-010440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY COOPER DALLAS Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 258 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 258 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-011-015-017-031-035-045-059-073-079-087-091-103-107- 111-115-121-127-139-173-177-191-197-207-209-010440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARVEY JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARION MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-029-033-037-039-047-053-059-083-085-089-095-101-105- 107-141-159-165-167-177-185-195-217-010440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY COOPER DALLAS Read more

MD 0925 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 010012Z - 010245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should develop this evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained discrete storms. A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening. DISCUSSION...A diffuse outflow boundary is draped from McPherson/Saline Counties in Kansas east to St. Clair/Henry Counties in west-central Missouri and then southeast from there toward the ongoing convection across northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. Extending south/southwest from this boundary is a dryline/wind shift which extends Chase/Marion Counties, KS, through Sedgewick County, KS, into north-central Oklahoma. Extreme instability has developed along and south of this outflow boundary, and to the east of the dryline/wind shift this afternoon. MLCAPE values in excess of 4500 J/kg are in place across southeast Kansas to the south of the outflow boundary, with 2500-3000 J/kg across far northeast Kansas to its north. Objective analyses indicates midlevel flow on the order of 35-40 knots across much of Kansas, which when combined with southerly to easterly low-level winds results in 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear. Recent satellite imagery across Kansas has shown an increase in vertical development with the cumulus fields along the dryline/wind shift across Sedgewick County. Recent radar depictions suggest initiation is underway, with lightning now observed. Additional clustering/clumping of the cumulus field is also occuring to the northeast of Sedgewick County, across Butler County. The expectation is that one or both of these areas will develop into sustained thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk of very large hail and strong/gusty thunderstorm outflows. These storms should move north-northeast, with additional thunderstorm development possible on the outflow of these storms. Recent high-resolution model guidance shows the potential for additional thunderstorm development along the outflow boundary across east-central Kansas or west-central Missouri later this evening. Should this activity develop, very large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible. Although low-level flow is relative weak, extreme instability in the presence of an outflow boundary may support an isolated tornado threat, particularly with any discrete storm that can sustain itself. A watch will likely be needed at some point this evening across portions of the highlighted area, although the exact timing and location of a watch remains somewhat uncertain. The area will be monitored closely. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37089753 37659751 38609706 39239655 39629573 39689466 39479427 39139399 38579394 38129420 37539472 37059552 37089753 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0259 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE OFK TO 20 S BKX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 ..MOORE..06/01/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-010340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC105-133-010340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOBLES ROCK NEC043-051-010340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0258 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0258 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected risks. ...01Z Update... Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south, convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita. Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe gusts. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected risks. ...01Z Update... Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south, convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita. Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe gusts. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected risks. ...01Z Update... Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south, convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita. Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe gusts. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected risks. ...01Z Update... Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south, convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita. Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe gusts. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible this evening into parts of the overnight in the Mid-Missouri Valley into the Flint Hills and central Missouri. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected risks. ...01Z Update... Cumulus towers continue to develop along the I-80 corridor this evening. Water vapor imagery shows a very subtle shortwave that may allow a few storms to develop near the Missouri Valley. The Slight risk has been expanded to account for this scenario. Farther south, convective initiation is becoming more likely northeast of Wichita. Large hail and severe winds are the main threats, but a tornado risk will be present with storms that interact favorably with remnant outflow in eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Additional severe storms are ongoing near Sioux Falls. Large hail and a tornado risk (for the next hour or two) are the main concerns along with isolated severe gusts. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2026 Read more

MD 0926 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010026Z - 010230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Additional severe thunderstorm development is possible along the I-29 corridor through the late evening hours. Confidence in storm coverage is limited, but conditions are being monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of at least one brief tornado, along with several additional attempts at sustained deep convection, to the west of the Sioux Falls, SD have been monitored over the past hour for storm maintenance/longevity after several earlier failed attempts at robust convection. This supercell has shown resistance to destructive interference as it shifts east away from the initiating boundary and into an environment with relatively weak low-level shear (but 30-35 knots of 0-6 km BWD) based on the nearby KFSD VWP. Additionally, new cell development south of the supercell has shown steadily increasing echo tops, suggesting that these cells may also be sustained and could pose a severe threat in the coming hours. Further south, several low-level confluence bands are noted in surface observations and GOES imagery intersecting the primary surface trough/dryline. Percolating congestus is also noted at one intersection near the Omaha, NE area. Based on these trends and some recent high-res guidance, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary appears possible through 04 UTC. Storms that develop along the boundary will likely pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear. Marginal low-level SRH away from the boundaries will likely modulate any further tornado threat, but another brief tornado or two could occur given focused low-level vorticity along the surface boundary intersections. Watch issuance may be needed if convection becomes sufficiently widespread in the coming hours. ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 43169645 41559584 40949571 40789580 40709606 40709631 41209734 41659750 43659774 43899774 44059752 44099711 44049687 43849668 43569648 43169645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0257 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0257 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 31 23:16:01 UTC 2026.

MD 0922 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 256... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256... Valid 312152Z - 312345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256 continues. SUMMARY...A gradual weakening trend is noted with the MCS moving across the lower OH/mid-MS Valley region. While some severe threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours, downstream watch issuance will likely not be needed. DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery over the past two hours reveals steadily warming cloud-top temperatures of the MCS moving across far southeast MO. Concurrently, MRMS VIL imagery shows the line beginning to segment into more isolated cells, and an outflow boundary has recently become apparent ahead of the line in KPAH reflectivity data. These signs all point towards a steady weakening of the MCS, which is expected to continue as it moves southeastward where deep-layer wind shear becomes increasingly weak. Moderate buoyancy remains immediately downstream of the MCS (MLCAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg), which will likely continue to support periodic pulses within the line and/or along the outflow boundary. This convection will be capable of sporadic large hail and strong/severe downbursts, but confidence in a prolonged or well-organized severe threat is limited given the marginal deep-layer wind shear. ..Moore.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 36759088 36739032 36868989 37128958 37408943 37578927 37418833 37148807 36808797 36478799 36198821 35948868 35798917 35728975 35759016 35869049 36049080 36209100 36389109 36559110 36759088 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more