SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.
...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of
significant wind damage and hail possible.
...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.
...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of
significant wind damage and hail possible.
...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.
...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of
significant wind damage and hail possible.
...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
Carolinas.
...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
over 7 C/km.
A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.
Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.
A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
above 0.4.
With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of
significant wind damage and hail possible.
...Southern VA into NC...
Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191700Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion
for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will build over the Northwest in the wake of a
departing midlevel trough. While warm and dry conditions will
continue across the region, generally weak surface winds will limit
fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. Locally elevated
fire-weather conditions are still possible within
terrain-favored/wind-prone areas, given dry/receptive fuels.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy conditions atop receptive
fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
...Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent
of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface
trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface
heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support
thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central
ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late
evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with
forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of
producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very
large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into
a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward
western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow
gusts and large hail.
...Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY
toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern
periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow
overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable
warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z
soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid
afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front,
as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC.
Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the
potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across
southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be
possible.
...Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf...
NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern
Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though
some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this
afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too
marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band
supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight.
Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken
thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL
and south GA.
...AL area this afternoon...
Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm
clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to
destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the
clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon.
Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could
support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest
storms.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 07/19/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.
... Southeast ...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the
western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley
eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south
before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC
area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will
heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early
afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly
stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will
favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and
steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading
within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable
of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over
GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage
potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are
also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward
into southern GA.
...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central
Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT
eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over
Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent
portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer
moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day.
Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool
front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected.
Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid
afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes.
Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will
support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches
in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As
additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective
outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a
severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern
ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast
in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of
the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/19/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.
... Southeast ...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the
western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley
eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south
before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC
area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will
heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early
afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly
stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will
favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and
steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading
within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable
of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over
GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage
potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are
also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward
into southern GA.
...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central
Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT
eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over
Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent
portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer
moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day.
Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool
front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected.
Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid
afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes.
Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will
support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches
in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As
additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective
outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a
severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern
ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast
in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of
the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/19/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the
Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the
period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface
front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty
regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15
percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the
southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold
front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and
25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm
clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region
through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.
...Days 5-8/Thu-Sun...
Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the
weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but
deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high
will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity
while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into
the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward
beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each
day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be
driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead
times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress
greater severe potential.
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