Storm Prediction Center

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW AGS TO 40 WNW CAE TO 30 S CLT TO 40 NNE CLT TO 30 WNW GSO TO 25 NNE ROA. ..LYONS..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC181-161540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN NCC003-025-059-119-159-179-161540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CABARRUS DAVIE MECKLENBURG ROWAN UNION SCC023-037-039-057-071-081-091-161540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESTER EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD LANCASTER NEWBERRY SALUDA Read more

MD 0270 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 63...65... FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES INTO WEST-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of the NORTHERN Gulf Coast states into west-central South Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 63...65... Valid 161436Z - 161600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 63, 65 continues. SUMMARY...Widespread strong thunderstorms remains ongoing this morning from parts of FL, across southern/southeastern GA and into west-central South Carolina. Strong wind fields and low-level shear will support a risk for damaging gusts, along with brief tornadoes. Some reintensification is possible with filtered diurnal heating. DISCUSSION...As of 1425 UTC,regional radar analysis showed a broad area of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing over much of the northern Gulf Coast and southeast US States. Within the broader convective mass east of the advancing cold front, several more organized clusters have resolved; one across parts of the FL Panhandle into southwest GA, and another cluster near the SC/NC border. The environment downstream of this convection remains broadly favorable for severe storms with 500 J/kg of MLCAPE increasing to around 1500 J/kg farther south. With very strong wind fields, 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear is also present, favoring a mixed convective mode of supercell clusters and line segments. Given this storm mode and the strong kinematics in place, damaging winds remain the most probable threat. Strong 0-1km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 from area VADs will support the potential for mainly embedded QLCS tornadoes, though some of the semi-discrete cells may pose a stronger tornado risk if they can remain discrete, particularly over parts of FL and southern GA. Given the favorable environment and ongoing convective coverage, the severe risk is likely to continue through much of the morning into the early afternoon. Additional reintensification of the convection, between the two more organized clusters already mentioned, is also possible as the environment remains supportive over the entire watch area. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29408525 29918528 30848472 31968349 32488267 33718163 33838157 34488063 34737991 34807951 34427935 33667990 32888014 32098103 31328150 30348224 29608305 29258428 29288460 29348501 29408525 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central Virginia into central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161240Z - 161445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will gradually increase into parts of central North Carolina and Virginia through the morning into this afternoon. A watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A remnant QLCS is emerging east of the Appalachians, where it is showing some early signs of re-intensification. Farther east, a disorganized band of thunderstorms is also evolving over parts of western VA into NC. While overall convective evolution is not clear, these storms will continue spreading eastward into a destabilizing air mass (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the somewhat limited buoyancy, strong low/deep-layer shear characterized by clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (see GSO 12Z sounding) will favor a mix of organized line segments and supercells, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes (some potentially strong). A watch issuance is likely for this activity. ..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35018062 36058067 37938001 38327941 38387851 38157795 37767769 37037785 35917834 35137889 34707944 34798025 35018062 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0264 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WI AND UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of eastern WI and Upper MI Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 160925Z - 161430Z SUMMARY...A swath of heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour are expected through the morning hours. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar and satellite imagery show an increasingly defined deformation zone and inferred strong ascent evolving in a north-south corridor extending from parts of Upper MI across eastern WI. Here, the GRB 06Z sounding sampled a cold and deeply saturated profile, which combined with the strong ascent, will promote heavy snowfall rates of 1 to locally 2 inches per hour through the morning hours. Additionally, strong surface winds may lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. ..Weinman.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 43308933 43818944 45628889 46468848 46878784 46888693 46678579 46278578 45488664 44618732 43878772 43298809 43078874 43308933 Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MLU TO 65 W MEI TO 20 ESE CBM. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-107-080040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN TENSAS MSC001-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-085- 099-101-103-121-123-127-129-080040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MLU TO 65 W MEI TO 20 ESE CBM. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-107-080040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN TENSAS MSC001-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-085- 099-101-103-121-123-127-129-080040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MLU TO 65 W MEI TO 20 ESE CBM. ..MOORE..03/07/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-107-080040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN TENSAS MSC001-021-023-029-031-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-075-077-085- 099-101-103-121-123-127-129-080040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more

WW 66 TORNADO NC VA 161255Z - 161800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 66 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Central Virginia * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms will sweep across the watch area through the morning hours, posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of White Sulphur Springs WV to 35 miles south southwest of Southern Pines NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 63...WW 64...WW 65... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266 ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC023-029-037-039-041-045-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129- 161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-023-025-027-029-031-033-043-051-065- 069-071-073-075-081-087-091-093-095-101-103-107-109-125-131-153- 155-161-163-165-167-173-175-177-179-183-185-189-191-201-205-209- 229-235-245-251-267-271-275-277-279-283-287-289-299-303-305-309- 315-319-321-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266 ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC023-029-037-039-041-045-047-065-067-073-077-079-121-123-129- 161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-023-025-027-029-031-033-043-051-065- 069-071-073-075-081-087-091-093-095-101-103-107-109-125-131-153- 155-161-163-165-167-173-175-177-179-183-185-189-191-201-205-209- 229-235-245-251-267-271-275-277-279-283-287-289-299-303-305-309- 315-319-321-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN Read more

MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of South Carolina...southern/central Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161154Z - 161330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will continue spreading eastward across South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. A downstream watch will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is tracking eastward toward the edge of WWs 63 and 64, with additional development ahead of the line. The downstream environment remains favorable for severe thunderstorms with a risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. For additional details on this risk, reference Mesoscale Discussion 266. A new downstream watch will be issued shortly. ..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 33098285 33868180 34558099 34758062 34848012 34657961 34377945 33887972 33288040 31658203 30018375 29598488 30038574 31798447 32438376 33098285 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0266 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 63...64... FOR WESTERN NC AND SC INTO CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...western NC and SC into central GA Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 63...64... Valid 161123Z - 161300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 63, 64 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and some potential for embedded tornadoes remain possible with an eastward-moving QLCS. DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented broken line has shown some recent signs of re-intensification as it moves east of the Appalachians. Here, a corridor of lower/middle 60s dewpoints is contributing to weakly unstable surface-based inflow for this system. Despite the marginal buoyancy in place, the strong low/deep-layer flow/shear continues to favor damaging winds. Additionally, a few deeper cores with mesovortex structure have recently evolved along the southern part of the line (where boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy are maximized), which could pose a risk of a brief tornado and locally enhanced wind damage. This risk should be highest where deep-layer shear is oriented oblique to the line (i.e., NNW/SSE-oriented parts of the line). ..Weinman.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35778266 36068247 36178189 36058146 35758118 35208133 34358176 33698231 32828305 32308363 32118413 32168460 32298491 32868457 33848355 34308329 34978289 35778266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AHN TO 25 ESE AND TO 30 NNW HKY TO 15 WNW SSU. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC181-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN NCC003-005-023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-171-179-193- 197-161340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROWAN SURRY UNION WILKES YADKIN SCC001-021-023-037-039-047-057-059-065-071-081-083-087-091- 161340- Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AHN TO 25 ESE AND TO 30 NNW HKY TO 15 WNW SSU. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC181-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN NCC003-005-023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-171-179-193- 197-161340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROWAN SURRY UNION WILKES YADKIN SCC001-021-023-037-039-047-057-059-065-071-081-083-087-091- 161340- Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AHN TO 25 ESE AND TO 30 NNW HKY TO 15 WNW SSU. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...GSP...CAE...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC181-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN NCC003-005-023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-171-179-193- 197-161340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROWAN SURRY UNION WILKES YADKIN SCC001-021-023-037-039-047-057-059-065-071-081-083-087-091- 161340- Read more

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA WV 160840Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Georgia Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Western Virginia Southern West Virginia * Effective this Monday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast moving line of showers and thunderstorms will track eastward across the watch area through the early morning. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Anderson SC to 30 miles northeast of Bluefield WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 62...WW 63... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026 Read more