Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... ...Synopsis... Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast. ...New Mexico and far west Texas... Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area. ...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast... As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on Sunday. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... ...Synopsis... Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast. ...New Mexico and far west Texas... Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area. ...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast... As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on Sunday. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... ...Synopsis... Dry, post frontal northerly flow will overspread the southern Plains this afternoon bringing a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico/far west Texas and from central Oklahoma to the middle and lower Texas Coast. ...New Mexico and far west Texas... Dry southeasterly return flow around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent across portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas this afternoon. Fuels within this region remain critically dry and multiple days of windy/dry conditions and will support maintaining an Elevated area. ...South Central Oklahoma to the Lower Texas Coast... As the cold front shifts offshore, dry northerly flow will overspread an area from south-central Oklahoma down to the middle/lower Texas coast. The driest conditions are expected across the lower Texas coast, where a Critical was maintained with this outlook. Relative humidity around 10-15% will overlap north to northeast winds 15-20 mph across this region. This in addition to dry fuels will support increased fire spread potential. Confidence has increase that Elevated conditions will extend across the middle Texas coast and north into south-central Oklahoma, which was added with this outlook as several new fires emerged across this region on Sunday. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO 35 SSW LUK. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC017-049-181-160740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CLARK NICHOLAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO 35 SSW LUK. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC017-049-181-160740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CLARK NICHOLAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CSV TO 35 SSW LUK. ..WEINMAN..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC017-049-181-160740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CLARK NICHOLAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0261 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwest and central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 60... Valid 160621Z - 160715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues. SUMMARY...A couple storms evolving ahead of the main squall line are being monitored for a potential increase in severe potential. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a squall line advancing eastward across western AL, a couple storms are evolving within a plume of weak low-level warm advection and surface confluence. While lingering inhibition (sampled by 04Z BMX sounding) and weak forcing for ascent cast uncertainty on intensification of these storms -- especially before being overtaken by the approaching QLCS -- large clockwise-curved hodographs (around 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and ample buoyancy will conditionally favor intensification into a supercell or two. If this were to occur, all severe hazards would be possible, including tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31788805 32298778 33078701 33188670 33138636 32958611 32758614 32478633 31688712 31458751 31528799 31788805 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will prevail, with high pressure at the surface. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will prevail, with high pressure at the surface. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will prevail, with high pressure at the surface. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026 Read more

MD 0258 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 59... FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 59... Valid 160354Z - 160600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW59. DISCUSSION...A squall line continues eastward across Middle Tennessee, with history of damaging winds and hail. A cluster ahead of the main line of thunderstorms has exhibited occasional strong rotation and will likely merge with the main line over the next hour. Though moisture remains more marginal, with dew points in the low to mid 50s F and MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Strongly sheared profiles (as observed from the VAD at KBNA) continue to support a strong line of thunderstorms with embedded mesovorticies and potential for damaging wind and tornadoes over the next several hours. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34818805 35928712 36428680 36648662 36678612 36648595 36508489 36228480 35778480 35328497 34868517 34408584 34258621 34298716 34298779 34358786 34378796 34818805 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0259 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60... FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...far northeastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and northern/central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 60... Valid 160414Z - 160615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW60. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across the Gulf States this evening, producing occasional reports of damaging wind and small hail. Ahead of this line across southern Mississippi into central/northern Alabama, a favorable unstable and strongly sheared air mass remains in place with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40 kts. This will be sufficient to allow for more organized line embedded mesovorticies that may produce damaging wind and tornadoes over the next few hours. Southward across southern MS/southern AL near the coast, occasional isolated showers and thunderstorms have been noted. Should a more discrete storm be able to get going within the open warm sector ahead of the main squall line, this may pose a somewhat greater risk for a tornado given more favorable moisture profiles with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30969178 32898975 34058833 34308745 34128615 33908590 32868636 30508884 30338953 30299087 30419154 30439163 30969178 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more