Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will be located in the western U.S. today, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains over most of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. One exception is over the eastern coast of south Florida, where enough moisture and instability may be in place for isolated thunderstorms late tonight. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/19/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly upper-level flow regime will become established over the northern Rockies and central CONUS today downstream of an anomalously strong upper-level ridge centered over the Southwest. This setup will favor strong downslope flow in the lee of the central Rockies, with westerly to northwesterly surface winds and very low RH values supporting elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the central High Plains. ...Portions of the central High Plains... Northwesterly upper-level flow will strengthen across the northern Rockies and central CONUS today downstream of an anomalously strong upper-level ridge centered over the Southwest. With stronger mid-level flow displaced toward the northern Rockies, surface lee troughing will become most pronounced across central Montana to eastern Wyoming this morning into this afternoon. When coupled with surface high pressure established across the Intermountain West, this will support strong downslope flow in the lee of the central Rockies, with forecast guidance indicating sustained westerly to northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH of 10-15%. With antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions maintaining dry fuels and helping cure fine fuels in areas that recently received precipitation, this will support critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska Panhandle, and extreme northern Colorado. The strongest winds are forecast near and east of the leeward slopes of the Laramie Range, where deep boundary layer mixing coupled with strong mid-level flow will also support the potential for wind gusts of 30-35 mph. Latest high resolution guidance also indicates slightly enhanced potential for critical conditions within the North Platte River Valley from eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska where topographical influences may locally enhance downsloping effects. Elsewhere across the central High Plains, westerly to northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph will overlap reduced RH values of 15-25% to support elevated fire weather conditions across much of eastern Wyoming, extreme southwestern South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, northeastern Colorado, and extreme northwestern Kansas. Marginal fuel receptiveness is expected to limit widespread elevated fire weather concerns for areas farther north and west at this time. ..Chalmers.. 03/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 18 06:18:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 18 06:18:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop near the Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest on Friday, with strong northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude upper wave will intensify into northern MN and toward the upper Great Lakes late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low also traversing the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from southwest Ontario into IL and MO by 00Z, and southerly winds ahead of it will bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints northward across TN/KY/IN/OH during the afternoon. Despite the low-level moistening, instability will likely be minimal. However, weak elevated instability may develop within the warm advection zone roughly from OH into PA, with a low chance of isolated thunder. ..Jewell.. 03/18/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper high will be centered over Arizona on Thursday, with a large-scale upper ridge from CA into the southern High Plains. East of there, northwest flow aloft will be maintained over the central states, as elongated upper troughing persists along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be prevalent over much of the CONUS, with centers over the Great Basin and from the Mid Atlantic into the northern Gulf of America. Given this dry and stable pattern, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 03/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the rest of the nation. At the surface, high pressure will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard, as a dry airmass stays in place over most of the continental U.S. The only chance for thunderstorms today will be over far south Florida, where enough instability will be in place for isolated thunderstorm development. No severe threat is forecast over the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/18/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 17 21:52:02 UTC 2026.

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 17 21:52:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z The synoptic pattern will remain fairly consistent throughout much of the forecast period, dominated by a persistent upper-level ridge centered over the California/Arizona border. A shortwave trough will crest the ridge, moving through the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Day 6/Sunday into Day 7/Monday. Recent forecast guidance suggests this passing shortwave may dampen the amplitude of the upper-level ridge more than previously indicated, potentially shifting the corridor of stronger mid-level flow further south late in the period. On Day 3/Thursday through Day 5/Saturday, moderate northwest flow aloft will remain in place over much of the central High Plains. Record warm temperatures are likely as the ridge builds across the western US, leading to deep boundary-layer mixing and resultant dry, windy conditions across portions of southeast Wyoming, the northern Colorado plains, and western Nebraska. A 70% area was introduced for Day 3/Thursday, reflecting high confidence in sustained westerly winds of 20-30 mph overlapping with RH values of 10-15% during peak heating. While the signal for critical winds is lower on Day 4/Friday or Day 5/Saturday, these areas will be monitored for future changes. On Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday, current guidance suggests the potential for critical conditions over portions of the southern and central Plains. Given the consistency in model solutions favoring the southern Plains, a 40% area was added over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and adjacent states for Day 5/Saturday. This area will likely require spatial expansion in subsequent updates as confidence in the wind field extent increases. Another 40% area was added for Day 6/Sunday to account for strengthening pre-frontal southwesterly flow across portions of Texas. Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to desiccate fuels over several consecutive days across the southern half of the western US through the outlook period. Independent of wind speeds, high vapor pressure deficits and low RH values suggest extended burn periods across these areas where fuels become increasingly receptive to ignition. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the East with a ridge over the West. Drier and stable conditions have encompassed much of the CONUS in wake of a cold front that continues to push eastward into the western Atlantic. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME NORTHERN COLORADO... A Critical area has been introduced over portions of southeast Wyoming, extreme western Nebraska, and extreme northern Colorado. In this area, forecast guidance indicates sustained west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph combined with RHs of 10-18% by mid-afternoon. The strongest winds will be near and east of the leeward slopes of the Laramie Mountains. In this area, the duration of critical wind/RH will likely approach 5 or more hours during peak heating. The Elevated area was expanded to the east and south across the northern and central Colorado plains and farther into the southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. The limiting factors for expansion farther west and north are cloud cover and existing marginal fuel receptiveness. However, given the persistent pattern and resultant anomalous temperatures expected over much of the region, this area will be watched closely for potential expansion as fuels continue to dry. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours, which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the 20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around 40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless, antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire weather threat Wednesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much from Wednesday into Thursday. A large upper cyclone and attendant ridge will encompass the western U.S., while an upper trough persists near the Eastern Seaboard. Surface high pressure across the East and Southeast and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, maintaining a dry/stable airmass across most of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 03/17/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... The Critical area over the southern Plains was expanded to include a slightly larger portion of central Texas and into nearby areas of southwestern Oklahoma. Forecast guidance is indicating that this region will experience at least a few hours of slightly stronger westerly winds, sustained at 15-25 mph with minimum RHs near 10-20%. Surface observations over this area are already indicating a tightening pressure gradient with sustained southwest winds up to 15-20 mph and RHs dropping into the mid-teens. Over central Wyoming, the latest forecast guidance shows that much of central portions of the state are not expected to reach elevated criteria with RH struggling to fall below 30%. Thus, portions of the Elevated area were trimmed toward the south commensurate with the spatial extent of the lowest RHs in this area. All other areas remain on track. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire activity. ...Southern Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph; however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across this region. ...Central to southern High Plains... Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will be monitored for the need for Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern characterized by a trough in the East and a ridge/upper high in the West will persist on Wednesday. Surface high pressure across the East/Southeast will foster offshore flow and a dry and stable airmass will prevail across most of the CONUS. Modest boundary layer moisture will exist across far South FL and the Keys, with a stalled front offshore across the FL Straits. A few thunderstorms are possible near this boundary, but are expected to mainly remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 03/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough over the East with a ridge over the West. Drier and stable conditions have encompassed much of the CONUS in wake of a cold front that continues to push eastward into the western Atlantic. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/17/2026 Read more

MD 0280 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...West Virginia into far eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 162213Z - 170215Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow will spread north/northeast in the coming hours. Snowfall rates may locally increase to 1-2 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar mosaics depict transient bands of moderate to heavy snowfall within a broader precipitation shield across the central Appalachians/upper OH River Valley. Surface observations under the heavier bands have been reporting periods of visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile. A broad swath of moderate snowfall will be maintained through the evening as ascent within the left-exit region of a 120 knot 500 mb jet continues to shift northeast. Increasing 850-700 mb frontogenesis will continue to overspread the upper OH Valley and provide more focused mesoscale ascent favorable for focused snow banding and periods of heavy snowfall rates. Although the strongest lift will likely be focused within the 850-700 mb layer, ascent through 500 mb will include a roughly 100 mb-deep dendritic growth zone. This will also help maintain moderate to heavy snowfall rates as surface temperatures fall below freezing within the post-frontal air mass. Based on latest guidance, snowfall rates over 1 inch/hour appear likely and may periodically be as high as 2 inches/hour across portions of PA and within the higher terrain of the Appalachians later this evening. ..Moore.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 37458173 37748190 41558069 42078035 42457959 42857884 42877862 42767804 42597772 42187759 41817765 40927804 39917851 39297891 38637937 37788014 37378068 37308141 37458173 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z The large scale pattern will remain fairly consistent throughout the forecast period. While an upper-level trough moves off the Northeast US coast on Day 3/Wednesday, a persistent upper level high will center over the California/Arizona border. A shortwave trough will round the ridge, moving across the Pacific Northwest on Day 6/Saturday before crossing the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday. On Day 3/Wednesday through Day 6/Saturday, moderate northwest flow aloft will remain in place over much of the central High Plains. Record warm temperatures will be likely as the ridge continues to build across the western US, leading to deep boundary layer mixing and resultant dry and windy conditions in portions of southeast Wyoming, the northern Colorado plains, and extreme western Nebraska. On Day 6/Saturday and Day 7/Sunday, current forecast guidance is suggesting some potential of critical conditions over portions of the southern Plains. However, the likelihood and placement of these conditions will be dependent upon surface features not yet resolved. While continued breezy, dry, and warm weather in the meantime would support conditions conducive to fire activity over this region as the ridge nudges eastward next weekend, confidence in where and when the weather risk will be highest is not yet high enough to introduce any probabilities. Record temperatures and dry conditions will continue to cure fuels over the course of several consecutive days across the southern half of the western US through the outlook period. Regardless of winds, high Vapor Pressure Deficits and low RHs would suggest extended burn periods across these areas given receptive fuels. ..Stearns/Williams.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 67... FOR THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...the DelMarVa into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Tornado Watch 67... Valid 161914Z - 162045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67 continues. SUMMARY...Some damaging wind and brief tornado threat will persist through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of convection (with minimal lightning) continues from northern Virginia to south-central Pennsylvania. This line has had sporadic damaging wind reports and perhaps a tornado or two this morning into the early afternoon. Weak instability ahead of this line may maintain some isolated damaging wind/isolated tornado threat through the afternoon. The tornado watch will be cancelled in the wake of this line of storms. Some threat for damaging convective winds with the front this evening still persists, but will be handled with an additional watch later this evening if necessary. ..Bentley.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39127685 39597669 39947654 40527618 40807596 40917557 41047497 40767451 40327405 39287435 38837521 38337599 38217663 38247709 39127685 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0278 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 69... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Carolina into central and eastern North Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 69... Valid 161919Z - 162115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across WW69. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, strong thunderstorms were ongoing within a loosely organized convective band from east-central NC to coastal SC. Thus far, numerous storm interactions and weak buoyancy (~500 J/kg MLCAPE 18z MHX Sounding) have limited storm organization. Numerous, but transient, low-level mesocyclones have been observed with embedded convective element this afternoon. Kinematics remain quite strong with 0-1 km shear of 40+ kts. This will continue to pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes with any stronger mesocyclones able to become established. Some clearing as been noted to the west of the primary cluster over central NC. As large-scale ascent from the upper trough moves overhead this afternoon, additional storm development is possible ahead of the cold front. Storm mode is likely to remain mixed/messy with clusters and line segments. Still, the very strong low-level wind fields will support a continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes across WW69 this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529 35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806 33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more