SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
A shortwave trough will traverse the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic
regions on Day 3/Monday as an upper level ridge begins to build back
across the western US. Although less intense than the recent
heatwave, this will once again increase surface temperatures, likely
breaking daily records over much of the southern two-thirds of the
western US once again. On Day 5/Wednesday, a potent upper-level
trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and significantly will
dampen the amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern
CONUS border on Day 6/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern
Seaboard on Day 7/Friday. While significant uncertainty exists among
forecast guidance beyond this time frame, another western US
transitory ridge will be possible next weekend.
On Day 3/Monday, over the lee side of the central Appalachians,
expect a cold front to sweep across the region. This will deliver
sustained northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph, gusting over 30 mph in
exposed and downslope areas, combined with RHs of 20-30% resulting
in a 40% likelihood of critical conditions. The latest guidance
shows that weaker flow aloft over Wyoming will preclude any
probability of critical conditions there.
On Day 5/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,
warm surface temperatures aided by lee troughing will support a
robust boundary layer, mixing into strong westerly winds associated
with the passing upper-level jet. The latest forecast guidance
indicates sustained west winds of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of
10-20% at the surface for several hours during the afternoon. Thus,
a 70% area exists for much of east-central Wyoming while 40%
probabilities cover portions of northern Colorado and much of the
Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds are not expected to be as
strong.
On Day 6/Thursday, an area of 40% probability was introduced as a
cold front supported by the aforementioned passing upper-level
trough is expected to surge south across the central and southern
Plains. While uncertainty in the timing and evolution of this cold
front will likely necessitate adjustments to the risk area over the
coming days, the southern High Plains currently stands the best
chance to experience critical fire weather conditions with this
frontal passage.
..Stearns.. 03/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA HEADLINE
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the
southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below), remains on track. Please see
Mesoscale Discussion 283 for short-term information on the severe
threat across portions of the southern Appalachians.
..Squitieri.. 03/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/
...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave
trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the
far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the
Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes
this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of
the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered
by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to
be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as
the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening.
Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more
cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting
in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more
persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually
intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.
Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend
towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and
persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong
to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal
boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe
threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western
Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves
eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across
most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in
most areas.
On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as
low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible
across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the
southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest
potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front.
At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is
substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin
to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the
greatest severe threat will be.
...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the
Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms
will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move
southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would
again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is
that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday,
uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast
period.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the
Carolinas and Georgia.
...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
through the Carolinas, and should be positioned from central Georgia
into central South Carolina by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will contribute
to weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front and move east-southeastward toward the
Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 35 knot range, along with steep low-level lapse rates may be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio
Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly
east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated
jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley.
South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist
airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level
convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the
front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast
to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a
severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.
During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast
soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered
to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will
exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe
thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5
C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell
threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are
more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also
expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short
line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A
marginal tornado threat will also be possible.
Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid
Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping
inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector.
Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken.
This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front
should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal
threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the
stronger cells that can initiate and persist.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio
Valley.
...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly
east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated
jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley.
South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist
airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level
convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the
front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast
to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a
severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.
During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast
soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered
to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will
exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe
thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5
C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell
threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are
more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also
expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short
line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A
marginal tornado threat will also be possible.
Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid
Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping
inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector.
Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken.
This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front
should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal
threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the
stronger cells that can initiate and persist.
..Broyles.. 03/21/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level flow will be maintained across the northern U.S.
on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain largely flattened until some
amplification occurs toward Monday morning. The amplification of the
upper-level pattern will help push a cold front through the southern
Plains during the morning. The front may eventually slow/stall
near/south of the Red River latitude.
...Texas and Oklahoma...
A somewhat complex fire weather setup will develop during the
morning and persist into the afternoon as the cold front makes
southward progress. The overall temperature gradient will be rather
modest and RH recovery behind the boundary will not be overly quick
to occur. Some upper-level clouds can be expected to dampen surface
heating, especially with northern extent. Even so, temperatures
could still reach the 70s into the 80s. Winds behind the front will
range from 20-25 mph along with stronger gusts. RH will be the main
uncertainty in this scenario, but state of fuels and the strong
winds would still keep fire weather concerns high even with 15-25%
RH. Near and south of the front, however, it is more probable to see
10-20% RH. Stronger, gusty winds are also expected just ahead of the
front within the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains. There, Critical
conditions are expected as well.
...Kansas...
Winds of around 25 mph are expected to persist the longest across
much of Kansas. RH will likely be 25-35% on account of upper-level
clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said, dry grasses will
support ignition/spread due to the strong, gusty winds.
...Southwest...
Very dry conditions will continue as RH falls into the single digits
in many locations during the afternoon. Winds will generally be
weaker here, but 10-15 mph (locally higher in the terrain) will
support an Elevated fire weather threat given dry fuels.
..Wendt.. 03/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...Synopsis...
Strong upper-level flow will be maintained across the northern U.S.
on Sunday. The upper ridge will remain largely flattened until some
amplification occurs toward Monday morning. The amplification of the
upper-level pattern will help push a cold front through the southern
Plains during the morning. The front may eventually slow/stall
near/south of the Red River latitude.
...Texas and Oklahoma...
A somewhat complex fire weather setup will develop during the
morning and persist into the afternoon as the cold front makes
southward progress. The overall temperature gradient will be rather
modest and RH recovery behind the boundary will not be overly quick
to occur. Some upper-level clouds can be expected to dampen surface
heating, especially with northern extent. Even so, temperatures
could still reach the 70s into the 80s. Winds behind the front will
range from 20-25 mph along with stronger gusts. RH will be the main
uncertainty in this scenario, but state of fuels and the strong
winds would still keep fire weather concerns high even with 15-25%
RH. Near and south of the front, however, it is more probable to see
10-20% RH. Stronger, gusty winds are also expected just ahead of the
front within the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains. There, Critical
conditions are expected as well.
...Kansas...
Winds of around 25 mph are expected to persist the longest across
much of Kansas. RH will likely be 25-35% on account of upper-level
clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said, dry grasses will
support ignition/spread due to the strong, gusty winds.
...Southwest...
Very dry conditions will continue as RH falls into the single digits
in many locations during the afternoon. Winds will generally be
weaker here, but 10-15 mph (locally higher in the terrain) will
support an Elevated fire weather threat given dry fuels.
..Wendt.. 03/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the U.S. today.
However, some modest decrease in the amplitude of this feature can
be expected. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across the
northern tier states with some extension into the central Rockies. A
stout surface trough/cold front will begin to move south through the
northern/central Plains.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
The combination of the strongest mid-level winds and the surface low
to the east will promote Critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) and RH of
10-15% can be expected. The cold front will move through during the
late evening into the overnight. Gusty north winds are expected in
its wake.
...Colorado Foothills/Front Range...
Conditions within the typical wind prone areas will not likely be
significantly different than farther north given the cross terrain
pressure gradient. Winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% are probable.
While these meteorological conditions would mean Critical fire
weather, recent precipitation has impacted fuels and updated ERC
data suggest that Critical fire weather may only occur locally. The
cold front will not likely impact this region until around Sunday
morning.
...Southwest into central/southern Plains...
A very broad area of elevated fire weather is forecast to develop
this afternoon. The warm to hot temperatures and lack of rainfall
continue to cure fuels in these areas. Very dry conditions are
likely in the Southwest (RH of 5-15%) with modest improvements to
around 15-25% in the central Plains near the Missouri River. Winds
of 15-20 mph will be most common, but locally higher speeds are
possible especially in the terrain of the Southwest.
..Wendt.. 03/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING...NORTHWEST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the U.S. today.
However, some modest decrease in the amplitude of this feature can
be expected. The strongest upper-level winds will remain across the
northern tier states with some extension into the central Rockies. A
stout surface trough/cold front will begin to move south through the
northern/central Plains.
...Wyoming into far western Nebraska/South Dakota...
The combination of the strongest mid-level winds and the surface low
to the east will promote Critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph (perhaps locally higher) and RH of
10-15% can be expected. The cold front will move through during the
late evening into the overnight. Gusty north winds are expected in
its wake.
...Colorado Foothills/Front Range...
Conditions within the typical wind prone areas will not likely be
significantly different than farther north given the cross terrain
pressure gradient. Winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% are probable.
While these meteorological conditions would mean Critical fire
weather, recent precipitation has impacted fuels and updated ERC
data suggest that Critical fire weather may only occur locally. The
cold front will not likely impact this region until around Sunday
morning.
...Southwest into central/southern Plains...
A very broad area of elevated fire weather is forecast to develop
this afternoon. The warm to hot temperatures and lack of rainfall
continue to cure fuels in these areas. Very dry conditions are
likely in the Southwest (RH of 5-15%) with modest improvements to
around 15-25% in the central Plains near the Missouri River. Winds
of 15-20 mph will be most common, but locally higher speeds are
possible especially in the terrain of the Southwest.
..Wendt.. 03/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1
inch diameter this afternoon and evening across the southern
Appalachian region.
...Southern Appalachians...
Very strong midlevel anticyclone remains anchored over the
southwestern CONUS. This is forcing meaningful short waves across
the northern Rockies/high Plains before digging southeast toward the
eastern portions of the United States. Early this morning,
water-vapor imagery depicts one of these features digging southeast
across eastern SD/NE. By the start of the period this short wave
will extend across IL/southeast MO/northeast AR, then it will
advance into KY/TN by early afternoon.
At the surface, a weak boundary that is draped across VA-northern KY
will gradually lift north and become somewhat diffuse west of the
higher terrain. South of this wind shift, modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across the Carolinas into the TN Valley such
that 0-3km lapse rates should exceed 7 C/km by peak heating.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be
approached, or breached by 21z as temperatures rise through the
upper 70s to near 80F across southeast KY/eastern TN. While
low-level convergence is expected to be somewhat weak, orographic
influences will contribute to the potential for isolated
thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave. Forecast midlevel
flow is expected to be around 30-35kt across this region at 500mb,
so deep-layer shear may prove adequate for a few supercells. If
robust convection develops in this environment then hail on the
order of 1 inch could be noted with the strongest storms. This
activity will spread southeast into the western Carolinas as the
short wave advances downstream. The primary concern for hail will be
during the afternoon/evening hours.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1
inch diameter this afternoon and evening across the southern
Appalachian region.
...Southern Appalachians...
Very strong midlevel anticyclone remains anchored over the
southwestern CONUS. This is forcing meaningful short waves across
the northern Rockies/high Plains before digging southeast toward the
eastern portions of the United States. Early this morning,
water-vapor imagery depicts one of these features digging southeast
across eastern SD/NE. By the start of the period this short wave
will extend across IL/southeast MO/northeast AR, then it will
advance into KY/TN by early afternoon.
At the surface, a weak boundary that is draped across VA-northern KY
will gradually lift north and become somewhat diffuse west of the
higher terrain. South of this wind shift, modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across the Carolinas into the TN Valley such
that 0-3km lapse rates should exceed 7 C/km by peak heating.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be
approached, or breached by 21z as temperatures rise through the
upper 70s to near 80F across southeast KY/eastern TN. While
low-level convergence is expected to be somewhat weak, orographic
influences will contribute to the potential for isolated
thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave. Forecast midlevel
flow is expected to be around 30-35kt across this region at 500mb,
so deep-layer shear may prove adequate for a few supercells. If
robust convection develops in this environment then hail on the
order of 1 inch could be noted with the strongest storms. This
activity will spread southeast into the western Carolinas as the
short wave advances downstream. The primary concern for hail will be
during the afternoon/evening hours.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/21/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over the
Southwest on D2/Friday, with modest northwest flow aloft persisting
across the central/northern High Plains. Surface high pressure over
the Intermountain West coupled with lee troughing across the
northern Plains will support a continued downslope wind regime, with
dry/windy conditions forecast to yield elevated to critical fire
weather concerns across portions of the central and northern High
Plains.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Anomalously strong upper-level ridging across the Southwest will
continue to support the potential for record warm temperatures
across much of the West. With high pressure remaining positioned
across the Intermountain West and lee troughing in place across the
northern Great Plains, a persistent downslope wind regime is
forecast to yield sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of
15-25 mph across much of the central/northern High Plains. Coupled
with reduced RH values of 10-15% and receptive fuels, this will
support critical fire weather conditions across portions of
central/eastern Wyoming. Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast
across adjacent areas of the western Wyoming Basin and portions of
southwestern South Dakota and western Nebraska where lighter surface
winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap reduced minimum RH values
of 10-15%. Farther north across much of southern Montana, RH values
are expected to remain more marginal (15-25%); however, ongoing fire
activity and sustained westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph warrant
the addition of Elevated fire weather highlights.
...Oregon...
Some guidance indicates westerly surface winds will strengthen amid
a tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold
front through D2/Friday. Continued dry/windy conditions may support
localized elevated fire weather concerns, but remaining uncertainty
regarding the strength and duration of stronger winds as well as how
low RH will fall in the afternoon precludes the inclusion of
Elevated fire weather highlights at this time. Conditions will
continue to be monitored for future updates.
..Chalmers.. 03/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level riding will persist across the Southwest with strong
northwesterly upper-level flow remaining in place across the
northern Rockies and central CONUS. This will support a continued
downslope regime across the central/northern High Plains and western
Wyoming Basin, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions
expected amid strong west-northwest surface winds and very low RH
values. Elsewhere, strong surface winds and reduced RH are expected
to yield elevated fire weather conditions across portions of
central/southern Oregon.
...Central/Northern High Plains...
Anomalously strong upper-level ridging will persist across the
Southwest today with strong upper-level northwesterly flow in place
across the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
across the Intermountain West will combine with a low pressure
system shifting southeastward across the Canadian Prairies to
support west-northwesterly downslope winds of 20-25 mph and reduced
RH values of 10-15% across portions of central and eastern Wyoming.
With persistent dry/windy conditions continuing to aid in the
maintenance of receptive fuels, these conditions are expected to
support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. While the
strongest low-to-mid level flow is forecast to be displaced farther
north, deep boundary layer mixing may still support occasional wind
gusts to 30-35 mph across this area.
Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected across adjacent
regions, including much of the Wyoming Basin eastward into portions
of northern Colorado, southwestern South Dakota, and northeastern
Nebraska where sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and
reduced RH of 10-15% are forecast amid the downslope wind regime.
Elevated highlights have also been expanded farther north and east
into much of southern Montana given similar forecast meteorological
conditions and recent wildfire activity noted in the region.
...Oregon...
Just west of the upper-level ridge axis, a strengthening surface
pressure gradient is forecast to yield west-southwesterly sustained
surface winds of 10-20 mph with RH values falling to 10-20% this
afternoon across portions of central and southeastern Oregon with
temperatures forecast well above normal. This combination of hot,
dry, and windy conditions is expected to support elevated fire
weather concerns prior to green up.
...Eastern Idaho...
Latest high-res guidance depicts sustained westerly to southwesterly
surface winds of 10-20 mph developing within the Snake River Valley
through today amid a tightening surface pressure gradient. While RH
values are forecast to drop to 15-25%, marginal fuel receptiveness
is expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns.
..Chalmers.. 03/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will exit the Northeast on Saturday, with a lobe
of cool air aloft extending southwestward from the TN Valley into
the Southeast. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over
AZ/NM and into the southern Plains.
At the surface, a weak trough is forecast from the Mid Atlantic into
the TN Valley, with surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F.
While lift will be minimal, daytime heating and sufficient
instability may support isolated thunderstorms in association with
the subtle southern wave. Severe weather appears unlikely given weak
lift and marginal shear/instability.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida
coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes
late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds
helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north
as OH and western PA.
Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak
instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing
within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and
vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak
instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer
shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very
small/non-severe hail.
Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain
cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon
destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores
where localized surface convergence may develop.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
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