Storm Prediction Center

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E LAF TO 45 NE LAF TO 20 E VPZ TO 15 WSW LAN. ..SPC..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-099-103-113- 141-149-151-169-179-183-160340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITLEY MIC023-025-027-045-059-065-075-077-149-160340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH CALHOUN CASS EATON HILLSDALE INGHAM JACKSON KALAMAZOO ST. JOSEPH Read more

WW 56 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 152240Z - 160600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will quickly move east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. Damaging straight-line wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado could accompany bowing segments or inflections within the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Danville IL to 25 miles south southeast of Jackson MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Smith Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160039Z - 160245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to increase through the late evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 02z. DISCUSSION...Moisture is steadily increasing into northern Alabama and Middle Tennessee this evening as the low-level jet strengthens ahead of a broken line of severe convection to the west. Mid to upper 50s dew points now extend to the TN/AL/MS border, with a narrow axis of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into northern Alabama/Middle Tennessee. This trend in increasing moisture and destabilization will continue as the upper level trough moves eastward and storms continue to develop near the cold front and within the warm sector. The RAP forecast suggests MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg will overlap deep layer shear 40-60 kts from Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. Though the northern extent of the instability will be less, the strong background wind environment will continue to support a mixed mode of clusters and semi-discrete supercells capable damaging wind and tornadoes. A downstream Tornado Watch will likely by 02z. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32878820 33418844 34458814 35088804 35978797 36598765 36668649 36638562 36608506 36558502 35968496 34978561 34128583 33268622 32818690 32878820 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLU TO 35 NNW GWO TO 25 W MKL TO 35 S PAH TO 50 NNW EVV. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-160240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT ILC059-069-185-160240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN WABASH INC051-125-129-147-163-173-160240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE UTS TO 35 W POE TO 30 N MLU. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-025-029-039-041-043-049-053-059-065- 069-073-079-083-097-107-115-127-160240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WINN TXC199-241-351-361-160240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER NEWTON ORANGE Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0059 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0250 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Texas...central Louisiana...eastern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152311Z - 160115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and intensity this evening. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the cold front moving east across far eastern TX into western LA. Comparison of 18z to 20z sounding from SHV showed lifting of the MLCIN layer between 850 and 700mb with the influence of the trough moving eastward. Though some MLCIN remains across southeast Texas into central Louisiana, the environment ahead of these storms is characterized by MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. Cooling aloft will continue to erode MLCIN through time this evening. This environment will support line embedded supercells, capable of damaging wind, large hail, and couple of tornadoes. Storms to the north have a history of 1-1.5 inch hail and winds up to 65 mph. A new watch will be needed to cover this threat over the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30259614 31229551 32779263 32869244 32849229 32679122 32459098 32099109 31719122 31209153 30329184 29879229 29699276 29749570 29949593 30189613 30259614 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0251 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 55... FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 55... Valid 152343Z - 160145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an increased hail and tornado risk. The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours. The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to increase as low-level hodographs enlarge. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951 37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868 33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK TO 25 ESE ELD TO 25 NE LLQ TO 50 W MEM. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW LAC013-061-081-111-160140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK TO 25 ESE ELD TO 25 NE LLQ TO 50 W MEM. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW LAC013-061-081-111-160140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK TO 25 ESE ELD TO 25 NE LLQ TO 50 W MEM. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW LAC013-061-081-111-160140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFK TO 25 ESE ELD TO 25 NE LLQ TO 50 W MEM. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-043-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA DREW LAC013-061-081-111-160140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE LINCOLN RED RIVER UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 53 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 151850Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and intensity along and ahead of a cold front and dryline this afternoon into early evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter, along with some tornado risk. With time, convection should develop into a squall line with greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph, along with a continued threat for embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Flippin AR to 40 miles south southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states. ...01Z Update... The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish. Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states. ...01Z Update... The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish. Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states. ...01Z Update... The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish. Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID SOUTH AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A squall line may continue to pose a risk for widespread strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes through late evening as it progresses east of the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat may continue into and through the overnight hours as it advances east of the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Coast states. ...01Z Update... The northern flank of the ongoing squall line, and closely trailing cold front, just south of the center of the deep cyclone migrating toward Lower Michigan, is beginning to undercut a narrow pre-frontal plume of mid 50s F surface dew points advecting north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley. As this continues through the next few hours, it appears that inflow may become characterized by steadily decreasing CAPE, emanating from downstream a boundary layer with dew points still in the upper 40s F from Lexington and Louisville KY northward. While this is likely to result in weakening thunderstorm activity, it is possible that widespread gusts generally approaching to exceeding 50 kt may be a bit slower to diminish. Farther south, although an initial plume of better pre-frontal moisture return into the Mid South (characterized by lower 60s F dew points) may be overtaken by the squall line shortly, another plume of better boundary-layer moistening appears underway across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama. As this continues to develop northward this evening, beneath 40 kt southerly 850 mb flow, unstable inflow and strong shear may maintain or support re-intensification of storms across the Tennessee Valley into central and eastern Gulf States. Although model output has been varied, there remains at least some signal in potential for more discrete downstream supercell development within strengthening low-level warm advection late tonight across southeastern Alabama and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, forecast low-level hodographs could support a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2026 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E UTS TO 45 WNW POE TO 40 E SHV. ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-025-029-039-041-043-049-053-059-065- 069-073-079-083-085-097-107-115-127-160140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WINN TXC199-241-351-361-403-457-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER NEWTON ORANGE SABINE TYLER Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LLQ TO 45 N GLH TO 35 N MEM TO 20 NW DYR TO 10 SE CGI TO 15 ENE SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..THORNTON..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-107-160140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT PHILLIPS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-160140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-125-129-147-163-173-160140- Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SLO TO 35 NNE CMI. ..SPC..03/16/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-049-079-101-159-183-160140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more