Storm Prediction Center

MD 0249 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 52...54...55... FOR ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Illinois and southeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...54...55... Valid 152247Z - 160015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 54, 55 continues. SUMMARY...Severe squall line is propagating steadily east this evening. Damaging winds are expected, along with a risk for a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Mature squall line is propagating east at roughly 30-35kt across central IL into southeast MO. This LEWP is likely producing damaging winds, and several bow-head type circulations are evident along the leading edge of the linear MCS. Air mass is not particularly unstable, but VWX and PAH vad winds exhibit more than 300 0-3km SRH, along with strong speed shear. In addition, intense midlevel height falls favor this strongly forced band of convection to advance into western portions of IN shortly after 01z. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37569012 40508872 40218720 37528870 37569012 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-152340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 55 TORNADO AR IL IN KY LA MO MS TN 152055Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 55 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Far Northeast Louisiana Southeast Missouri Northern and Central Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intense squall line is expected to develop and pose a substantial threat for widespread severe/damaging winds and several tornadoes this evening as it moves quickly east-northeastward. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph. Supercells may develop ahead of the squall line, with a threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2+). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Mount Vernon IL to 40 miles southeast of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW TYR TO 25 S RUE TO 20 NNE FLP TO 20 WSW UNO. ..THORNTON..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053- 057-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-079-085-091-095-099-103-105-109- 117-119-121-125-135-137-139-141-145-147-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LINCOLN LONOKE MILLER MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE UNION VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF LAC013-015-017-027-031-061-081-111-119-152340- Read more

WW 53 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 151850Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage and intensity along and ahead of a cold front and dryline this afternoon into early evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter, along with some tornado risk. With time, convection should develop into a squall line with greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph, along with a continued threat for embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Flippin AR to 40 miles south southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 56 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 152240Z - 160600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Southwest Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will quickly move east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. Damaging straight-line wind gusts will likely be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado could accompany bowing segments or inflections within the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Danville IL to 25 miles south southeast of Jackson MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW 55... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS which could introduce another cold front into the central and southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain West and central/southern Plains remains very low. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains... Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend. Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits predictability for the weekend time frame. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS which could introduce another cold front into the central and southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain West and central/southern Plains remains very low. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains... Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend. Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits predictability for the weekend time frame. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS which could introduce another cold front into the central and southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain West and central/southern Plains remains very low. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains... Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend. Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits predictability for the weekend time frame. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough exits the Northeast by midweek while an upper-level ridge builds across the southwestern U.S. This expanding ridge across the Southwest will likely bring record breaking heat to much of the southwestern U.S. Longer term guidance suggests a return to a more active wave pattern at least across the northern CONUS which could introduce another cold front into the central and southern regions of the U.S. by early next week. However, the opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of the Intermountain West and central/southern Plains remains very low. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Broad northwest flow over the northern Rockies should support the development of lee surface troughing across the northern and central High Plains on D3/Tuesday. Strengthening southwest winds across the Southern Plains within a residual dry air mass will promote an increasing fire weather threat for southeastern NM, west TX and western OK. Some modification to the 40% critical probability area was made based on latest model guidance, with some hints at a corridor of enhanced southwest winds approaching 20 mph from TX Big Bend northeastward into southwestern OK. Some uncertainty exists in RH reductions which precludes introduction of 70% critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 4-6/Wednesday-Friday - Central High Plains... Persistent northwest flow aloft and subsequent surface lee troughing response across the central/northern High Plains will promote a multi-day dry and breezy downslope regime across southeastern WY and adjacent NE Panhandle and far northeastern CO areas. Although some recent precipitation has been observed, the building heat and dry conditions should allow drying of fuels, particularly on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday. ...Days 7-8/Saturday-Sunday... Anomalous, likely record breaking temperatures, dry conditions but generally light winds across the Intermountain West and Southwest will persist under a strong upper-level ridge through the weekend. Longer term ensemble guidance does indicate some de-amplification and eastward shift of the ridge over the weekend while a mid-level short wave trough traverses the northern tier of CONUS. This could invite another cold front into the Plains and related fire weather concerns over a dry landscape but uncertainty in timing limits predictability for the weekend time frame. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SPI TO 20 NNE PIA. ..SPC..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-079-101-107- 113-115-125-129-137-139-147-159-167-171-173-179-183-203- 152240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MASON MENARD MORGAN MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY TAZEWELL VERMILION WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 54 TORNADO IL 152045Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms should pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as it moves quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Springfield IL to 35 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...northeast Louisiana and northern/central Mississippi to southern Illinois and Indiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 152027Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Low 60F dewpoints have now moved into the Lower Mississippi River Valley where temperatures have also warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s. As low-level moisture continues to increase and temperatures cool aloft across this region, expect moderate surface based instability to develop by late afternoon. As forcing overspreads this region ahead of the approaching mid-level jet streak, supercells may develop during the late afternoon to early evening period. These supercells would have some hail threat, including the potential for large (2+ inch) hail. The KNQA VWP already shows significant curvature in the lowest 2.5 km and the hodograph size is expected to grow through the afternoon/evening as 850/700mb flow strengthens. Therefore, if these pre-frontal supercells form, they will also have a tornado threat, with some potential for strong tornadoes. By later in the evening, the damaging wind threat will increase substantially as the front approaches the region. Convection along the front this afternoon remains somewhat weak, primarily due to the cool temperatures and limited moisture, but this activity is expected to strengthen substantially as it interacts with the warmer air and greater instability across eastern Arkansas and into southeast Missouri this evening. Around this time, model guidance continues to show a northward transport of 62-64F dewpoints into this region which would result in a substantial QLCS tornado threat in addition to the damaging wind threat. A watch will be needed ahead of the approaching squall line, and may need to be issued soon if pre-frontal supercell development appears imminent. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33259141 33649093 34139083 36049068 36599065 37368996 37858949 38228900 38448830 38308755 37668741 36858804 36448816 36048818 34778849 33548868 32838977 32539148 32899174 33259141 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0247 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 53... FOR ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Arkansas...far northeast Texas...into northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 53... Valid 152039Z - 152215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for all hazards continues across WW53. Gradual strengthening of ongoing going convection, and possible warm sector development later this afternoon should increase the severe risk with time. DISCUSSION...Across WW53, a broken band of storms has gradually intensified along a surging cold front across far southeastern OK into western AR. The environment ahead of these storms is still destabilizing, with temperatures warming into the upper 60s to 70s F, resulting in 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. So far, capping has remained stout, especially with southward extent, slowing storm intensification/organization. The arrival of robust mid-level ascent and continued surface heating will erode remaining inhibition ahead of the front this afternoon. Most CAM guidance shows gradual strengthening of the frontal convection into this evening. Given the strong deep-layer shear, large low-level hodographs, and sufficient buoyancy, a risk for all severe hazards is expected to increase. It remains possible, but, unclear if discrete per-frontal convection can develop. Should this occur, supercells with a possible higher tornado risk in addition to hail and damaging gusts would be possible. This appears most likely where low-level moisture can maintain dewpoints near 60 F. Given expected increase in severe risk, the threat continues across the entirety of WW53 this afternoon into this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 32679539 35299385 36459299 36459096 34749123 33759134 33369143 32119253 31869316 31799341 31739381 31779481 31899534 32679539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0054 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S PRX TO 30 ESE RKR TO 35 NW RUE TO 30 NNE HRO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 ..LYONS..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-041-043-045-049- 051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-079-081-083-085- 089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127- 129-133-135-137-139-141-145-147-149-152140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HRO TO 45 E SGF TO 10 NNW VIH TO 50 WNW STL TO 15 ESE UIN. ..BENTLEY..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 152140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-125-139-149-153-161- 163-169-179-183-186-187-189-203-215-219-221-229-510-152140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MARIES MONTGOMERY OREGON OZARK PHELPS PIKE PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HRO TO 45 E SGF TO 10 NNW VIH TO 50 WNW STL TO 15 ESE UIN. ..BENTLEY..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 152140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-113-123-125-139-149-153-161- 163-169-179-183-186-187-189-203-215-219-221-229-510-152140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MARIES MONTGOMERY OREGON OZARK PHELPS PIKE PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 52 TORNADO IL MO 151830Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 52 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central Illinois Southern and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon while posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. A greater wind threat, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph, may exist if thunderstorms can form into a line along/ahead of a cold front over the next several hours. Isolated severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Alton IL to 40 miles west southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Gleason Read more