Skip to header Skip to main navigation Skip to main content Skip to footer

User account menu

  • Log in
Cochise Times

Main navigation

  • Main
  • Local Stations
    • Benson
    • Bisbee
    • Douglas
      • Elfrida
      • McNeal
    • Sierra Vista
    • Tombstone
    • Willcox
      • Portal
  • News
  • Weather
  • Community
    • Calendar
    • Civics
    • Forums (opens in new tab)
  • Classifieds
  • Recreation
  • Directory
    • Specials
  • About

Storm Prediction Center

SPC Mar 15, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...20Z Update... Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly, higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. ...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas... Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with no changes. Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...20Z Update... Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly, higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. ...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas... Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with no changes. Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio Valley/Southeast. ...20Z Update... Some trimming to severe/thunder probabilities was done across Missouri given the progression of the sharp cold front. Lapse rate and shear profiles will favor supercells from near the Sabine Valley into the Mississippi Delta region. There, hail to around 2 inches is conditionally possible. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes still appears to be within the mid-Mississippi Valley. Tornado probabilities were adjusted based on the latest guidance. Lastly, higher wind probabilities (45%) were expanded southeastward where there is an increased signal in guidance for a coherent line of convection to maintain intensity this evening/overnight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest... Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period. Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley. Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast. Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z). With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm development within the next few hours. General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for several QLCS tornadoes. The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight, a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN. Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. ...Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas... Low-level moisture will gradually spread northward through tonight from the FL Peninsula to the southern Appalachians and into parts of the Carolinas, well ahead of the amplifying upper trough over the MS Valley. While forcing will remain generally weak/nebulous, there is some chance for isolated hail/damaging winds with thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula and the Keys. The severe threat across coastal GA/SC/NC appears conditional on thunderstorms spreading inland from the Gulf Stream tonight into early Monday morning. However, an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would exist in a gradually improving environment if these cells form and move inland. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with no changes. Read more

SPC MD 245

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Southern and central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151818Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may pose an isolated severe risk for occasional damaging gusts and hail through the afternoon. Organization appears limited and a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar analysis showed scattered to numerous thunderstorms had developed across portions of southern FL, with additional storms developing along the typical sea breeze boundaries. Strong heating amid seasonably rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the 70s F) is contributing to roughly 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, flow aloft is rather modest, with deep-layer shear on area VADs generally below 25 kt. Thus far, storm organization potential appears limited with a multicell mode. Still, transient stronger updrafts are possible given the degree of buoyancy. This, along with some clustering has been noted in radar trends, suggesting some stronger downdrafts and isolated damaging gust potential. While isolated damaging gusts or marginally severe hail are possible, the limited storm organization suggests the severe threat will remain localized. A WW is unlikely this afternoon. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 25128090 26358208 27538272 28428278 28888243 29138178 29048102 28678044 27798021 27097996 26078001 25648014 25358036 25128090 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC MD 242

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0242 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...portions of South Dakota...southern Minnesota...far northeast Nebraska...and northwest Iowa Concerning...Blizzard Valid 151449Z - 152045Z SUMMARY...Low-level wind fields are expected to intensify through much of the morning over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The strong winds, along with ongoing snowfall, will likely support the development and expansion of blizzard conditions through the day. DISCUSSION...Morning surface and radar analysis showed a deep surface cyclone (990 mb) quickly intensifying as it moves northeastward across portions of northern MO. Supported by intense height falls and ascent from a deep upper trough, very strong northerly low-level winds were observed over much of the Great Plains and upper Midwest behind the surface cyclone and a trailing cold front. Light snowfall remains ongoing over parts of eastern SD, NE and western MN. This band of snow, likely associated with mid-level ascent/deformation beneath the upper trough will gradually expand in coverage to the east/southeast into parts of IA. Despite limited snowfall rates, very strong boundary-layer winds (50-60 kt below 1 km) are being observed with a northerly low-level jet max. These strong surface gusts and antecedent snow depth should be sufficient to support substantial blowing snow. Low visibilities have begun to develop over parts of SD, and widespread visibility reductions to 1/2 - 1/4 mile are forecast to support a hybrid combination of ground blizzard and blowing snow conditions this morning and through much of today. Later today into this afternoon, the strong winds and blowing snow should expand across parts of IA. It may take several hours for sufficient snowfall and depth to accumulate and support lower visibilities. However, given the expected increase in snowfall and surface gusts upwards of 60 mph, significant visibility reductions and travel impacts are expected later today into tonight. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 41309484 41419573 42089689 42619777 43319902 43810029 44530079 45580058 45799931 45719479 45259333 44529286 43319304 42639314 42019354 41529387 41309484 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX. ...Southern and Central Texas... Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning, leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across central/southern TX. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around 15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as portions of western TX where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after multiple days of dry/wind conditions. ...Southern/Central Texas... Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th percentile by D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX. ...Southern and Central Texas... Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning, leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across central/southern TX. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around 15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as portions of western TX where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after multiple days of dry/wind conditions. ...Southern/Central Texas... Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th percentile by D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX. ...Southern and Central Texas... Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning, leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across central/southern TX. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around 15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as portions of western TX where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after multiple days of dry/wind conditions. ...Southern/Central Texas... Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th percentile by D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow is still expected to bring fire weather concerns into portions of central and southern TX on D2/Monday. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of surface high pressure settling into the Plains will bring an Elevated fire weather threat to southeastern NM and far west TX. ...Southern and Central Texas... Stronger northerly flow will commence this evening across southern TX as a robust cold front quickly moves southward. Showers and thunderstorms are more likely to develop along the cold front near and east of the Houston metro area tonight into Monday morning, leaving much of southern TX dry. Sustained north winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity between 15-25% by Monday afternoon are likely across portions of the middle and lower TX Coast areas where fuels remain very dry, including ongoing severe drought across far southern TX. These conditions necessitated introduction of Critical Highlights within a broader Elevated fire weather threat across central/southern TX. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Dry return flow on the western fringe of surface high pressure settling into the central U.S. will affect portions of southeastern NM and west TX Monday. A dry air mass will be in place across much of the southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front. South winds of 15-20 mph will develop and align with relative humidity of around 15% (despite considerably cooler temperatures) to bring an Elevated fire weather threat to east-central and southeastern NM as well as portions of western TX where dry fuels remain. ..Williams.. 03/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... Post frontal northerly flow will shift into southern/central Texas for D2/Monday, with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. Dry return flow will bring Elevated fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a high builds across the southern Plains and moves into the lower Mississippi River Valley. ...Eastern New Mexico into west Texas... Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, south to southeast winds 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20%. An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support this threat. Fuels in this region are expected to be critically dry after multiple days of dry/wind conditions. ...Southern/Central Texas... Behind the southward advancing cold front, relative humidity reductions to around 15-25% (locally around 10% in south Texas) will overlap sustained north winds at 10-20 mph across portions of the south Texas Brush Country to the Rio Grande Valley and across the Middle Texas Coast. The D3 40 percent was maintained and expanded across the coast with this update. Fuels across the south Texas Brush Country are critically dry, with ERCs forecast to be around the 75-90th percentile. Fuels across the middle Texas coast region are more marginal but are forecast to be around the 50-75th percentile by D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 52 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FYV TO 10 S SGF TO 30 NE SGF TO 15 SSW JEF TO 25 ENE COU TO 40 SSW UIN TO 15 W UIN. ..BENTLEY..03/15/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 52 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 152040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-027-029-043-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-105-113- 123-125-131-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-173-179-183-186-187-189- 203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-152040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CALLAWAY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN COLE CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible. Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10 percent through 15Z. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible. Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10 percent through 15Z. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Discussion... With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible. Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10 percent through 15Z. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 53 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0053 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC MD 243

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...central and eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151723Z - 151930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe weather potential will increase over the next 1 to 2 hours as storms develop along the cold front this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A 992mb surface low was analyzed across northeast Missouri at 17Z with a strong cold front extending southwestward across Missouri and into northeast Oklahoma. Ahead of this front, low-level moisture advection has brought low to mid 50s dewpoints across much of Missouri with some low 60s dewpoints across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This has resulted in around 500 J/kg MLCAPE across southern Missouri into parts of central Missouri. Strong inhibition from 12Z RAOB at KSGF has eroded substantially on the 17Z sounding with the warm nose being lifted 5000 feet in 5 hours. The combination of this continued ascent and warming/moistening low-levels should completely erode inhibition and permit strong storm development along the front within the next 1 to 2 hours. Shortly after initiation, the 500mb jet streak, the nose of which can be seen on water vapor imagery across Oklahoma, will emerge across the Midwest with strengthening mass response, wind fields, and forcing. This will result in a favorable environment for strong winds along the front this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition to the severe wind gust threat, a QLCS tornado threat is also anticipated, especially later this afternoon into this evening near the Mississippi River. Low-level moisture will likely be the primary factor which will impact the tornado threat. Based on forecast soundings, upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints will likely result in a mostly damaging wind threat, but 62-63F dewpoints would likely support a more substantial QLCS tornado threat. This seems most likely after 22Z across southeast Missouri and perhaps into far southern Illinois per the 15Z HRRR. Multiple tornado watches will likely be needed this afternoon to address the evolving threat. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 36619409 36999368 37609314 38669243 39199192 39909126 39969005 39818966 39458921 38508899 37598910 36948954 36489006 36519204 36529353 36619409 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 244

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
MD 0244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR ARKANSAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Areas affected...Arkansas...eastern Oklahoma...northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151731Z - 151900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid severe thunderstorm development is expected early this afternoon from eastern OK into AR, northeast TX into northern LA. All hazards are possible with an eventual QLCS. DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed initial ascent ahead of a potent shortwave trough was impinging upon the intersection of a cold front and weak dryline over parts of eastern OK and far southwest MO. Exceptionally strong mid-level ascent (8-10 cm/s observed from the SGF soundings) will overspread a rapidly warming/moistening air mass resulting in destabilization this afternoon. Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected in the next couple of hours as ascent continues and the front impinges upon the plume of returning surface moisture. While modest, surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F amid steep mid-level lapse rates will support 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. 50+ kt of deep-layer shear will favor storm organization with a mixed mode of supercells and line segments. The surging nature of the front suggests rapid upscale growth into a QLCS is also likely this afternoon before spreading eastward. Strong low and mid-level shear (ESRH 200-300 m2/s2) may still support embedded supercellular elements, along with QLCS circulations. Enhanced lower tropospheric flow of 30-50 kt is favorable for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. Hail is less certain, but will likely remain tied to more isolated initial semi-cellular development into parts of southwest AR and northwest LA/northeast TX. Observational trends and the latest CAM guidance show thunderstorms developing first along the most progressive portions of the cold front from far southern MO into far eastern OK and western AR. Additional development farther southwest may be somewhat more gradual as large-scale forcing for ascent is weaker and residual capping is likely to remain in place. With time, widespread thunderstorms should mature within a favorable CAPE/shear space, increasing the severe risk. Given this, one or more Tornado Watches are likely this afternoon. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 36439134 36009113 35609113 34289159 33649186 32629249 32009320 31759418 31699550 32209573 32979555 34209502 36079426 36459372 36499230 36439134 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 52 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0052 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. ...East... No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas. A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast. Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector. Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. ...East... No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas. A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast. Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector. Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more

SPC Mar 15, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
2 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. ...East... No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas. A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast. Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector. Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026 Read more
Pagination
  • First page « First
  • Previous page ‹ Previous
  • …
  • Page 157
  • Page 158
  • Page 159
  • Page 160
  • Current page 161
  • Page 162
  • Page 163
  • Page 164
  • Page 165
  • …
  • Next page Next ›
  • Last page Last »
22 hours 34 minutes ago
Storm Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Subscribe to Storm Prediction Center feed

Footer menu

  • Contact

Copyright © 2026 Cochise Times - All rights reserved

Community Broadcasting Local News and Information